Below is a further tweet from Public Policy Polling. I buy that Ron Barber is ahead, but not by that margin.
AZ-8 poll will be out between 10 and 11. Democrat Barber leads by double digits
I’ll make sure to check out the poll when it comes out. Most local news organizations are on their self-imposed 36-48 hour “blackout” period now so I don’t imagine it will get a lot of coverage.
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PPP poll shows Barber up 53% to 41%.
Barber gets 90% of Democratic vote (Really? Even in Cochise County?), and Kelly get 82% of Rs (I’d expect more moderate Republicans to buck Kelly’s extremism).
The big difference: Kelly takes independents, 51% to 34%.
I like the sound of this poll, but something just doesn’t smell right.
I’ve already quoted Yogi once, and I’ll do it again. It ain’t over till it’s over.
Even in Cochise county? I think Democrats in Cochise county probably vote the party line more than they in Tucson – it ain’t easy being a Democrat in Cochise county. I know – I’m one of them.
I bet PPP’s numbers are right on target. They reported:
“67% of voters in Giffords’ district have a positive opinion of her to only 24% with a negative one. There aren’t many special House elections where the departing incumbent has a 67% favorability rating, and that fact makes this a very difficult one for the GOP to win.”
Gabby’s high favorables carry over to a 54/38 favorability rating for Barber. Meanwhile, Kelly has a 37/59 unfavorable rating. He’s not an easy guy to like. And McSally won more votes on election day than Kelly in the primary. Those voters want to vote for her again in August in the CD2 primary, and she’s said she will drop out if Kelly wins the CD8 special election.
Sam, I suspect that Baja is correct. The days when being openly Republican in Cochise County was socially unacceptable are long over. The old Pinto Democrats, to the extent they still exist, are largely registered as Republicans or independents now. To be registered Democratic in rural Arizona probably means that you are actually a Democrat. I suspect that the numbers reflect this reality.
Besides, do you really think that Jesse Kelly draws more than token crossover support?
In looking over the internals, it seems clear that PPP over-sampled Democrats.
While some statistical junkies I know and respect polling say there’s nothing wrong with autodial polling, I’m skeptical.
Finally, I just spoke to a friend (like me a recovering Tucsonan whose business needs forced him to move to Phoenix). He says Kelly signs are all up and down Tangerine Rd., and there’s one small Barber sign.
While that’s Oro Valley territory, it still says folks have a lot of work to do before they start the final count tomorrow night.