At the height of the Republican pity party over redistricting, I asked how many districts for the Republicans would be fair. That’s because despite the hollering and blubbering about “unfairness,” they did pretty well: fifteen or sixteen Republican legislative districts depending on how one chooses to measure such things. For the math challenged among you (and by “math challenged,” I mean members of the Republican legislative leadership that troll here), that’s a near guarantee of a majority.
Apparently, I have an answer to the question about what’s fair: seventeen.
That’s how many Republican districts there are on a map drawn by Tlatoani Andy Tobin.
By the way, the complaint is that the IRC process wasn’t open enough. This map was drawn by Tobin and a single staff member. I don’t know if the room they worked in was smoke filled or not.
Tobin’s plan is to have the legislature refer the map to the voters, who would of course pass this, right?
Okay, want a list of problems with this? Sure.
- Do rank and file Republicans have the stomach for another fight over this? Keep in mind that a previous proposal to put junking the IRC process on the ballot in a special election never really got anywhere. Heck, do they want to monkey with the maps this close to when they have to file for office?
- The reversal of the putsch against Colleen Mathis showed how little constitutional authority the legislature has over the IRC once it’s appointed. Does anyone really think that a court would allow the legislature to just replace the work of the commission because they feel like it?
- What about Department of Justice preclearance? I have a feeling that Tobin wasn’t consulting with the Feds while drawing his map. According to the Yellow Sheet, he didn’t even consult his senate counterpart, Steve Pierce. A bit more supposition, but I bet that Tobin didn’t put a high priority on drawing minority districts.
- The election will cost $8.3 million. $8.3 million dollars for a blatantly partisan purpose. I mean, we can spend that money to recruit a new person to run the Arizona Commerce Authority for a few months, right?
Well, Tobin may care about none of this, actually. This has more to do with his trying to curry favor with Republican activists for a planned congressional run.
NB: Tobin also drew a new congressional maps, and, surprise, his “fair” map gives Republicans more districts.