There is talk afoot that former Yuma County legislator Amanda Aguirre may mount a primary challenge to Raúl Grijalva. One observer I talked to said that she is considering several options, including making a run in the Western Arizona district that includes northern Yuma County, or making a run for county supervisor.
Some of the talk includes a rumor that EMILY’s List is involved. One politico I’ve talked to, who has connections to EMILY’s List, doubts this. They’ve got their hands full with several other Western races, including Ann Kirkpatrick’s. They’d be less than interested in taking down an incumbent that’s been as good on their issues as Grijalva has been. Any contact they have with Aguirre, just like other contact they have with up and coming women in Southern Arizona, is more likely in the hopes that they can recruit a woman to run in 2014 should Grijalva, as some observers expect, not run.
Whatever else she’s counting on, Aguirre can’t count on geography being her best friend here. Back in the 2002 Democratic primary, Lisa Otondo had a first place showing in Yuma County. She garnered over a quarter of the vote in that year’s eight-way contest, but that was only enough to place fourth in the district over all. The district, as currently configured, even includes less of Yuma County.