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Math Doesn’t Bode Well for Kelly

Because the numbers we are seeing right now are county wide and our counties in Arizona are so frickin’ big, it’s hard to really parse things to see where Jesse Kelly’s outstanding votes may be versus Gabrielle Giffords’s outstanding votes.

But one thing that’s interesting is looking at the numbers from Cochise County. Giffords’s overall lead is growing, which is understandable given the number of ballots outstanding in Pima County. But, she, much to the surprise of observers I talked to, even cut into Kelly’s lead in Cochise County. Okay, she cut into it by a grand total of seven votes. However, any scenario that would have Kelly pulling this out would involve him expanding his lead in Cochise County significantly.

I talked to a couple people in the local press yesterday who are not willing to call this thing yet, understandable really. But it is getting increasingly difficult to imagine where Kelly makes up the difference.

6 Comments

  1. azw88 wrote:

    Math? Kelly is a Republican, thus he can ‘make up’ all the numbers he wants to… just look at all the crap he made up in his ads

    Friday, November 5, 2010 at 1:27 pm | Permalink
  2. TANSTAAFL wrote:

    azw88, if you can’t do anything but call names and gripe, take your business to MySpace.

    Tedski, as to where Kelly can make up votes, rural conservatives and retirees often vote by mail, and this count triggers only in a close race where it can determine the difference – like this one. There are still a lot of “provisional” ballots to be validated, which can impact the overall counts as well.

    Sit tight, folks. This is far from over. Gabby may get her walking papers this time yet. If Pelosi succeeds in her run for Minority Leader in the House, you can be sure of Gabby’s demise in 2012 – when, contrary to Tip O’Neill’s adage, all Congressional electoral politics will be national.

    Friday, November 5, 2010 at 3:17 pm | Permalink
  3. mev wrote:

    I think Kelly’s mistake, like Angle’s was threatening to take Social Security, the last safety net away. Doesn’t he remember that when there was pure GOP ins the White House, Senate, and House, that the Social Sec Town Hall meetings were shouting matches and Bush gave up on it? Why didn’t he just talk about pro-life issues and pro-military and promise to keep everyone safe. You are not safe if you have no income when you are sick, old, and ill. He could have won if he had just left that alone…then if he wants to get elected and cheat people later, hey go for it.

    Friday, November 5, 2010 at 3:28 pm | Permalink
  4. Dylan Smith wrote:

    One look at the new numbers this evening, and I made the call. Her lead is now pushing 4,000 votes, which is double where it was on Election Night:

    http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/report/110510_giffords_reelected

    Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:35 pm | Permalink
  5. Insideazpols wrote:

    We’ve called it for Giffords, but then we’re just a speck in the AZ blogosphere. Though our polisci degrees and chops are impressive.

    Friday, November 5, 2010 at 6:46 pm | Permalink
  6. azw88 wrote:

    TANSTAAFL, umm name-calling??? where did I resort to name-calling? I just pointed out that Kelly was lacking truth in some of his ads….

    Saturday, November 6, 2010 at 5:25 pm | Permalink