Friday, June 26th, 2009...8:51 am
A Bit Premature
Jim Nintzel over at the Weekly had a take on the Governor’s race that I’m very surprised that I haven’t heard more:
[I]t’s bad news for Dave Bradley, the state lawmaker from midtown Tucson who was mulling a gubernatorial run. Given how little name ID he has statewide, Bradley’s odds were long to begin with, but in a contest where the vote isn’t being split between [Terry] Goddard and and [Jim] Pederson, his chances of winning just dropped through the floor.
Interesting, but I don’t think this forces him from the race. First off, despite some folks (such as myself) supposing that Bradley would do well with Maricopa County votes split between several candidates, it doesn’t seem like Bradley himself was counting on this.
Secondly, even if you still think Bradley needs a Maricopa county split, other candidates are now looking to join the race now that Pederson is out. I’ve been told that Neil Giuliano is now a lot closer to officially jumping in and Phil Gordon has been making calls to test the waters.
Of course, more candidates jumping in could split votes in other ways, just serving to help the guy who is otherwise the front-runner, Goddard.
6 Comments
June 26th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Bradley for Secretary of State!
June 26th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
hardly, Anon. That role doesn’t serve his interests and desires to help people, esp the less fortunate.
June 26th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
Its already decided azw88. day late, dollar short.
June 26th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Guiliano was a Republican until about 2 minutes ago and no one knows him outside of Tempe anyway. I’m sure we’ll have more than one candidate, but I’m also sure that Goddard 2010 will be a repeat of Napolitano 2002 in the primary.
June 27th, 2009 at 10:45 am
Goddard is definitely the front runner at this point, being the state AG and former Mayor of Phoenix.
June 28th, 2009 at 8:59 am
The key three words in Carol’s post, and something for all of us to keep in mind, are “at this point.” Sure, you have to concede front runner status to Goddard right now due to his experience and name recognition. You can even say with certainty that it is his race to lose. The inevitable behaviors of a front-runner with regard to consolidating support, scaring of challengers and touting endorsements will be in evidence.
2010 is a fork in the road year for Democrats, however. We are going to be eager to choose a leader who can not only make the most of all the opportunities the Republicans are laying before us, but someone who can also unite our own very diverse ranks by laying out a compelling vision for both victory and governance. I’ve yet to hear that from Goddard or anyone else, but it is also too early to expect it.
After this year’s elections, it would behoove any serious challenger for this office to fully take into account the moral and legal implications of our state’s “resign to run” law, as well as the political opportunities it presents. Taking on the leadership of this party and presenting a full-blown vision for the future of this state will require full-time attention and effort. The fact that it looks like the Republicans may have their own “road to Damascus” year in 2010 is another reason why our nominee needs to be sharp and focused.
It will take a lot more time and evidence for me to decide which candidate for governor I will be backing. Terry Goddard will damage his prospects with me, and I suspect many other potential supporters, if he plays the traditional role of the front-runner. This is a time for boldness and risk-taking, not coyness and caution.