Thursday, June 18th, 2009...11:13 am
It’s a Gang of Four, but Without Jian Qing or Jon King
Just because I’ve been neglectful about the goings on in next year’s Democratic gubernatorial primary/bloodbath, I need to do one of those lazy, capsule posts with little or no useful perspective offered. Yeah, don’t I suck?
Jim Pederson – Over the last couple of weeks, Pederson and his cadre have been touting their website, Stand Up For Arizona. I’m liking the direction that the site is taking, with requests for content from visitors including “Video Blogs” that are supposed to eventually go to lawmakers. I’m happy that they resisted the use of the term “Vlog,” which I think is the ugliest invented word of our still new century.
A bit of comedy for me came when John Munger hit e-mail boxes with a snide missive congratulating Pederson for the site and mentioning that his Imagine Arizona site (also done with an eye to boosting a gubernatorial candidacy) has been up longer. Yep, folks, Munger came up with this whole concept of putting up wonkish and promotional pre-campaign websites. No one ever thought of that before you came along, John. We’ll let you think that if it makes you feel better.
Terry Goddard – After a lot of grousing even from Goddard partisans that the guy hasn’t been showing any fight, many activists I’ve talked to have been impressed by his speeches lately. While they haven’t been combative, they show a lot more passion than the usual dry recitations of the (very admirable) work that his office has been doing. I’ve heard from two people who were at a dinner on Saturday night where Goddard humorously “called out” former Tempe Mayor Neil Giuliano for his waffling on his party affiliation and candidacy.
Dave Bradley – Bradley has been in Washington this week, reportedly selling his candidacy to the big boys.
I’m not privy to Bradley’s thinking about this, but more than one person I’ve talked to has brought up the name R. Creigh Deeds, the softspoken Virginia State legislator from the more rural part of the state who beat two flashier candidates from the populous Washington suburbs to win the Democratic nomination for governor. If I were him, I’d be selling that story.
Neil Giuliano – I’m hearing he’s in; I’m hearing he’s not in. Maybe the guy’s strategy is to keep all of us guessing. Who knows?
I still have a hard time believing that Giuliano will actually run in the end. More power to him if he does, I guess, but I can’t think of a scenario where the man wins a primary. Feh, I’ve been wrong before. Lots of times before.
22 Comments
June 18th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
R. Creigh Deeds also ran in and narrowly lost a statewide election in 2005. He was hardly an unknown. But hey, if Bradley can raise the money to be a viable candidate, more power to him. I love competitive primaries!
June 18th, 2009 at 11:03 pm
Brian Moran also went crazy negative in the last few weeks against TMac (I don’t think he is as cool as the nick name, I just can’t spell his last one). My understanding from friends in Virgina is that he didn’t do enough positive campaigning about himself to sway the people he turned off TMac to go to him, and not the guy who was being nice.
June 19th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
I know people are starting to support candidates for Governor even now, but I must say that I am VERY impressed with Pederson’s Stand Up for Arizona campaign right now. Is is a bit of a campaign stunt in some ways, SURE. However, it is also action for our education system at a CRITICAL time right now. Others can talk a game about their support of education and being against the GOP budget (and I know Bradley walks the walk too), but this effort to mobilize everyday voters to actually puts some pressure on these pinheads is something that speaks volumes to me.
Thanks Jim! I honestly was a critic after your non-existent campaign for US Senate down here in Pima. I am listening now…get down here!
June 19th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Pederson is very good at building infrastructure, but he’s a terrible campaigner. I can’t believe I hadn’t heard about Giuliano’s ambitions before reading it here. I hope he doesn’t get in, though I doubt he has much of a chance anyway. I respect Dave Bradley and am glad to be represented by him at the legislature; as it stands right now, he’s the most likely of this bunch to get my vote in a Dem primary for Governor.
June 19th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Terry wins in a walk.
June 19th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
Goddard is far and away the most popular candidate in rural Arizona, for one thing because he comes out here regularly.
That isn’t to say that Pederson can’t win, but he will have to run up a huge margin in Phoenix because I wouldn’t be surprised to see Goddard win 60% of the vote even in a four way primary out here. People know him, and they like him a lot, even some of the hardcore Republicans who have fond memories of his dad (if they are oldtimers) and have been impressed with the work he did to get Warren Jeffs (if they are younger.)
June 20th, 2009 at 7:11 am
I can agree with you Michael about Pederson’s campaigning and his campaign last time. That is what gives me pause, but go to his site and you will find a remarkable improvement in organization and communication. It remains to be seen if he will put that kind of energy on the stump. Also, Eli makes a point about Goddard being none outside the big donut of Phoenix. That, in my mind, was one thing that sunk him in Pima (Democrat stronghold? ). No one saw him, knew him, and didn’t see much evidence of his campaign. He will NOT be able to do that this time.
Last, on Goddard, a few things give me pause too. I find him to be a bit wimpy on the stump. That last speech Ted put up was an improvement, as was his recent response to the bizarre new gun proposal. However, some of us in education are again seeing Pederson’s call to action…at this time of budget brinkmanship…to be very timely and helpful.
So, I am going to watch, listen, and figure this one out over the next months.
June 20th, 2009 at 8:50 am
I love Pederson’s website and think that it’s in the spirit of what helped our party win nationally in 2008. People can talk to one another there, share ideas and contact the Capitol, etc.
I also think Pederson and Bradley have the better stories to tell voters than Goddard. Goddard seems sort of like Arizona’s Hillary Clinton… he’s been around here forever and will always have his supporters, but he’s a career politician and has done this TWICE already. There are some things about Pederson I don’t like but he’s a genuine guy in person (I met him at a recent Democrat meeting in Maricopa) and he knows what he’s talking about. The guy was born in small town AZ, built his business from the ground up, helped propel our party to relevance as ED… and now the Stand Up For Arizona site is probably the best tool we have available as far as opposition goes. I’ll wait to hear Bradley’s story if he chooses to get in, but I’m tired of voting for the same people over and over again. Let’s end politics by name recognition and get some real people on the 9th floor that know how to balance a budget and get us back on track.
June 20th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
AG Goddard’s the only Democrat with statewide appeal, and attorney Munger will have to face off with Governor Brewer, who can’t even get her Republican legislature to balance the budget. Welcome to Arizona.
June 20th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
I too have heard rumors about Guiliano throwing his hat into the ring. It will be interesting to see how that plays out, although he has been out of the public limelight for so long that I don’t think he can be much of a contender.
I am intrigued by John Munger, and his “Imagine Arizona” PAC. The Arizona GOP has, for awhile, been dominated by social issues. I have to admit, it is a little refreshing to see someone focus on education and the economy.
June 21st, 2009 at 9:15 am
Again, “Stand Up For Arizona” is emblematic of what Pederson is good at; my concern lies with his ability to campaign and turn out votes on his own behalf. He was a completely uninspiring candidate in 2006 against an incumbent who should have been beatable (or at least should have won by a much smaller margin than he ultimately did). Kralmajales is right: statewide Dem candidates ignore Pima County at their own peril.
Giuliano’s latest gig was as President of the Gay and Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation, a national media watchdog organization based in New York City. They do good work, but I don’t find his leadership of that organization particularly impressive. The attacks on him based on where he just stopped working, should he survive a primary, would not even be thinly-veiled. It would be nice to have a candidate stand up to that kind of bigotry, but there’s still plenty of that bigotry to go around in this state. Being a newly-minted Democrat would be the least of his electoral problems, sad to say.
June 21st, 2009 at 9:54 am
I remember Pederson from his Senate run in ‘06 when I was running in the primary for CD8. He never, NEVER knew my name, despite my having been introduced to him multipe times and despite the number of times I approached him at not large gatherings where I would begin the “Hello” by telling him my name. Nice man – not much of a politician. Reminds me of Joe Mahoney in Maryland who ran against Spiro Agnew.
June 21st, 2009 at 2:37 pm
A few quick thoughts:
1) I don’t know that I would compare Goddard to Hillary Clinton in this context. Goddard and Clinton can equally claim title to the “establishment,” and while Goddard has been a lifelong public servant whose establishment credibility is rooted in more traditional Democratic Party liberalism, Pederson is the Third Way successful businessman who is bored with retirement; if anything, I would guess Pederson is trying to be Arizona’s Terry McAuliffe, although he would hope without the same result. Also, let’s not forget that, while Obama was the first major national figure to campaign for Pederson in 06, JP still went ahead and endorsed Clinton in that primary.
2) It is worth mentioning that Goddard has been uncanny, throughout his career, for remaining relatively consistent and relatively true to the progressive cause, even when it has been inconvenient. While all politicians deviate, thus far Goddard has been both the more consistent and more progressive of the two. Pederson, as we will recall on his 06 campaign, danced around the issues quite a bit. This doesn’t mean that he can’t fix this problem in 2010; but, it is an issue he will need to address.
3) Pederson’s argument will center around electability; the problem with this is, Goddard is the most popular statewide official of either party, and the most popular Democrat with the general public in the state. Goddard has both the name ID and the popularity; unfortunately for all of us, the only way for Pederson to establish his argument as being more electable than Goddard is to tear Goddard down. This might be just as well, as perhaps it is better that happens in a primary than in the general, but it’ll need to be handled extremely delicately in order to avoid leaving lasting damage for what will already be an extremely challenging general election.
While I admittedly am leaning Goddard at the moment, I do think that if Pederson were to address these issues he could persuade a great many voters his way; that said, based on the performance of his 06 campaign and the spotty track record of the consultants he is hiring in 10, I am extremely doubtful that he will.
June 21st, 2009 at 5:31 pm
Sorry but in this environment there is not a chance for Pederson to be elected in the general. He would once again be torn down as a land barron and buying a seat.
Goddard can point to accomplishments and has the best chance in the real election.
June 22nd, 2009 at 6:24 am
Count me as undecided when it comes to who I will back, but certain as to what I am looking for in a candidate.
The person I will support will be the one who has the boldest vision for the state, which must include talking directly about the mistakes the last four governors have made when it has come to income tax cuts. Let’s face it, this is the second-fastest growing state in the union. We have infrastructure problems, underfunded schools and massive social needs. Admittedly, we also have a corporate tax structure that sends mixed messages to businesses that might want to come here.
When I hear someone talking about rolling back income tax cuts that have helped the well-off while stimulating nothing but deficits, when I hear someone talk about a comprehensive program for addressing all the concerns associated with growth and when I hear someone who can speak to business about what it takes to make Arizona a desirable place to set up shop, I will know who to support. The politics of play it safe, incumbent protection and triangulation practiced by the last Democratic governor will turn me off right away. We need a unique and risk-taking candidate who will serve as a stark contrast with the Republican, while also showing the swing voters that they can effectively govern this state.
So, who is out there that fits this description the best?
June 22nd, 2009 at 8:32 am
I’m with you there, Rex.
June 22nd, 2009 at 9:53 am
Rex, we should have coffee. You stated my philosophy almost perfectly.
One thing that bothers me a bit about Goddard is this. Somebody give me the facts if I am wrong. I am told that he has done a lot of massive state settlements on behalf of consumers (say with mortgage companies) that have taken them to task, but that have at the same time shut individual consumers who have been harmed from the ability to sue for the damages that they deserve. The state and “taxpayer” get theirs, but it sheilds companies from lawsuits (which is the only way to make these folks whole again…especially when the state does not compensate a person for their losses).
Any truth to this?
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:42 am
I kept hearing last week that Pederson was going to run for Mayor of Phoenix instead.
I think Pederson would make an excellent Mayor, so if is true, I am really thrilled.
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:55 am
Interesting, Evergreen. However, that surprises me given the issue focus of his website, which is squarely on state issues. Also, a mayor doesn’t have a whole lot of power over the education/cut education agenda of this legislature.
He could be gearing up for something much much bigger…like Gov.
Ambition tends to come out during times like this when a unelected GOP Gov is actually the only one able to effectively fight against a “philosophy”-based, right wing legislature bent on destroying state government.
I suspect we will see a few faces in this Gov. race…on both sides.
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:22 pm
I agree with you Vote Democratic. Without a doubt, Pederson is the Terry McAuliffe of this race.
Goddard is in a good position. This state likes bulldogs and he’s done a great job as AG. He’s got solid name ID and Napolitano did a pretty good job of moving from AG to Gov.
June 23rd, 2009 at 10:34 am
David, Terry and Jim are all good qualified candidates and democrats should feel luck y that we have three terrific options to choose from and not the “Clown Shoes Parade” (thanks PC) that will be gracing the ballot in the Republican Primary.
June 24th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
I fear Jeff Flake, we don’t see the appeal because we are Democrats. However, he can raise a lot of money and is photogenic. Yes, Arizona is that shallow.