Rum, Romanism and Rebellion

The Republicans say that they have the votes to get their budget through the house appropriations committee today. Whether this means they have enough to get it through the full house remains to be seen.

There has been talk of a group styled the “Mushroom Coalition” of Republican members who have been disatisfied with the budget process and who could, so the theory goes, not march with the rest of the caucus. Not all are moderates, by the way. The reports I’ve heard name conservative members who are ticked at leadership for not keeping them in the loop, as well as people who are concerned about the electoral consequences of so many cuts in popular programs.

There has been talk about such confederations before. I remember hearing the phrase “mushroom coaltion” to describe a group of moderates in the 1990’s, and who can forget the wonderfully named “Sue Nation”? In the past couple of sessions, there has always been talk of some cadre of dissatisfied legislators, but somehow, they manage to pass a budget anyway. We may not have noticed before because those budget fights resulted in a gubernatorial veto forcing that second round that ended in compromises that often included Democrats and moderate Republicans. There is no guarantee that we’ll get that second round this time.

It may be that Republican leaders don’t have the votes to pass the house right now, but by getting it through the appropriations committee, they can create a bandwagon effect. It may seem like a weak case to make to recalcitrant legislators, but to paraphrase the late Bill Finger, politicians can be a superstitous, cowardly lot. If they think that the budget is going to pass, maybe they don’t want to get left behind?

Because of the dearth of other bills that have been moving this session, leaders don’t have the same tools to move legislators their way. The usual way is, hey, vote this way and we’ll give your bill a hearing. Given that hardly any bills are being given a hearing, and the way time is running down few would have time to pass anyway, there isn’t much of a chance to do this. But, there are other ways. For example, members that are termed out or otherwise done with the place can be promised support for a run for higher office. For example, Jay Tibshraeny, one often identified as a shroomer in the senate, is planning a run for his old job as mayor of Chandler.

There still remains the question of what the governor is going to do. Although the governor was quite outspoken earlier in the session, there hasn’t been as much public indication of what she wants to do. Word is that her staff isn’t happy with the budget that legislative leadership is presenting. But, not signing it should it pass would trigger a fight within her own party and who knows how long it would then take the legislature to pass something after that. Signing it would be giving up any hope of running for a full term.

NB – Arizona Bill designed by Bob Richards