Thursday, April 16th, 2009...7:11 am
The Marginally Informed Speculation That This Blog Is Famous For
The current talk among politicos is that La Cervecera will not be running for a full term next year, and that the candidate that the Republican establishment will rally around will be Jeff Flake.
Sounds plausible. I have no doubt that Flake would be a formidable candidate in the general election. In addition to his stature as a congressman, his family connections would give him a leg up in rural Mormon country. Although quite conservative, he doesn’t come off as an ideologue. In some ways, he could come off to voters as a lot like John McCain: very conservative, but with just enough non-standard crusades to call himself a “maverick.”
But can the guy get nominated? The “Republican establishment” has done a poor job in intra-party battles lately. Plus, some of Flake’s positions (opening up relations with Cuba, for example) are ripe for demogoguery from a conservative opponent. Also, no matter how much attention Flake gets from his job as a congressman, he hasn’t been visible on state issues. Someone who can regularly get his name on the front page of the Republic on a daily basis for more local causes (Andrew Thomas, for example) could clean his clock in a primary.
Of course, this would take Flake out of consideration to replace McCain in 2010 (see, we are now assuming that neither McCain nor Brewer are running. Both say that they are). This would leave John Shadegg as the strongest possibility to run on the Republican side. God help us.
13 Comments
April 16th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Scarp is reporting that non other than Karen Johnson is running for gov also:
http://regulus2.azstarnet.com/blogs/politics/14410/just-in-former-state-sen-karen-johnson-wants-to-be-governor
April 16th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
As I said on a Facebook status update earlier…Len Munsil in a dress? Bring it on!
April 16th, 2009 at 8:46 pm
Imagine for a moment Jeff Flake (the guy who believes in practically no government services) as Governor with the legislature we have now.
Think about the blasted ‘no-man’s land’ landscape if you’ve ever seen any pictures of those splintered tree stumps that were all that was left between the trench lines after World War I. Because that’s what our state government (including schools and universities) will look like if we get that combination in power.
April 16th, 2009 at 11:18 pm
@Eli Blake
Run everyone, the sky might be falling — the SKY might be falling!!
Jeff Flake!!!
@RRR
Andrew Thomas running for governor – what a horrid idea. Here’s hoping that just a few more people read the Phoenix New Times between now and Republican primary day 2010.
April 16th, 2009 at 11:44 pm
I think the current fiscal mess is going to affect the dynamics of next year’s election. Jan Brewer seems to have figured out, at least somewhat, that running the government is actually work. You can’t just come in with shortfall in the billions looming over everything and just say that it’s going to be tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts, and we’re going to cut all that wasteful spending. Because when you cut all of that “wasteful” spending on things like schools and universities, people notice. I don’t think Democrats will suddenly take over the legislature, but they may well take back a couple of seats. And anyone running for governor on the Republican side is going to have a rougher go of things than they previously would this time around. When little Johnny’s teacher has been laid off, the roads aren’t getting fixed, and meanwhile lawmakers are spending their time over who can pass the toughest abortion bill, you’re going to have a hard sell saying that you’re the one who oughta be running the state.
On a sad note – expect the anti-immigrant rhetoric to reach some really ugly levels in a few months. The Republicans are going to try to win this thing by blaming everything on the illegals again.
April 17th, 2009 at 6:20 am
If Brewer were not running, I doubt she would be proposing tax hikes, even temporary ones, to deal with the current budget mess. She is already acting like a general election candidate. The GOP poohbahs in the business community are already forming ranks behind her. They know that the party will surely lose if their guberbatorial candidate apes the rhetoric of their legislative leadership. Thus, I am firmly convinced that Brewer will be their nominee. She may have to swat away minor annoyances like that whackjob Johnson, but she will not have a serious opponent like Flake.
April 17th, 2009 at 11:11 am
I really like Jeff Flake as a congressman (as long as it’s not my district). I think he’d be a great governor (just not for my state).
I think he’s honest and fair. He’d be great at rooting out corruption and waste. He’s got great ideas about dealing with border/immigration issues.
Texas!!!
Flake for Texas!!!
April 17th, 2009 at 8:48 pm
Goddard Vs. Flake would certainly be a Clash of the Titans, and not just of the famous last names of Arizona. But, given Flakes’ continued push for policies proven as failures, Terry Goddard will, and should be our next Governor.
April 18th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Goddard is all we got? I re-register Democrat and find Goddard as my future Governor. Let me say this, I will vote for him vs. Flake but I don’t think he can beat him. I also think that he has not done that great a job as AG.
April 18th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Giffords for Gov.
April 18th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
Far right is not even the word for Johnson. I would agree, she would make Brewer look pretty darned great. Oh…and is business really behind Brewer? Why? Business snuggled up some to Janet. Don’t we have a candidate that could actually earn the support of business…especially after what the GOP has done to education, transportation, fiscal responsibility, and it is not forward thinking enough for business.
April 18th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
Stephen:
You know what is really sad? Even Texas can pass a decent budget in their legislature:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/stories/041909dntexhousebudgetpassed.e8653aaf.html
We really are on a planet of our own in Arizona.
Krajmajales:
I disagree about Goddard. He had the nerve to go er Warren Jeffs after his cult had pretty much had carte blanche to rape teenage girls and abandon teenage boys for decades. He’s also done a very good job of dealing with consumer fraud issues and tried to educate parents about what is going on with their kids and the internet.
I will vote for him with enthusiasm (though apparently he may have to get by Jim Pederson first.)
April 19th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
I do not get why everyone thinks Brewer isn’t running. She has been in AZ politics for 25 years. Do you think when she finally has her one chance to attain the highest office in the state that she is just going to step aside?
This just does not make any sense.