Tuesday, October 7th, 2008...12:59 pm
I Guess Obama is Dragging All of Our Candidates Down
Here’s a memo going around to Republican legislative candidates:
MEMO
TO: All Republican Legislative Candidates
FROM: Nathan Sproul
DATE: 10/06/2008
SUBJECT: Republicans in Danger of Losing Both Houses of Legislature
If the election were held today, Republicans would likely lose control of the Arizona State House and would be very close to losing control of the Arizona State Senate.
The situation is dire and getting worse by the day.
There is an old saying about a canary and a coal mine. The miners used canaries in the coal mine to warn them if toxic gases were infiltrating the mine. When the canary stopped making noise and died, that was their warning signal to get out quickly.
Well, the canary in the Arizona Republican coal mine is dead and if Republicans don’t move expeditiously, we may lose both houses of the Legislature. Today, the House is in more acute jeopardy than the Senate, but both could easily be lost.
I have looked at polling data in this state for legislative races since 1998. Not once in the past decade has it been this grim.
There are four reasons that should grab the attention of, and potentially scare, every Republican seeking election to the State Legislature in Arizona.
1) The atmosphere is more toxic than 2006.
2) Because it is a presidential cycle, far more soft partisans and independents will cast a ballot.
3) Polling results are not good.
4) The Democrat Party has TEN TIMES more cash in their coffers as the Republican Party.
These factors combine to create a perfect storm whereby there are few if any “safe” Republican districts.
Because this is a presidential cycle, Arizona could see 75% – 80% turnout as opposed to the 60% – 65% turnout during a gubernatorial cycle. The Secretary of State is predicting turnout of 80%. That means far more independents and soft partisans will be voting.
It is a ‘change’ environment. Independents are more motivated than ever. In a typical election, Independents are less than 20% of the electorate. Based on their intensity this cycle, that percentage could rise to 25%.
Right now, Independents are breaking Democrat by a 2:1 ratio. If this trend continues (motivated Independents to vote and breaking against Republicans 2:1) Republicans will lose the House and may lose the Senate.
Polling Results
Recently, I was tasked by a client to poll in two different legislative districts. I have permission to share some of that information.
First, both districts had a Republican advantage of more than 15%. There are not many districts that boast that type of advantage.
In both districts, the Republicans and Democrats in the House were clumped together in the high teens and certainly within the margin of error.
In both districts, it is plausible for the Democrats to pick up at least one seat and possibly two seats.
Republicans are underperforming their registration advantage by at least 10%. By that I mean, if Republicans have a 17% percent advantage over Democrats, the Democrat is within 7% in the head-to-head ballot.
Most voters cast a vote for their Legislature based purely on party affiliation. That is why the generic trend line is crucial in legislative contests.
Unfortunately, that means any Republican candidate in a district that has less than a 10% advantage is in severe jeopardy, and Republican candidates in districts with less than a 15% Republican advantage are simply in jeopardy.
It is my belief that unless drastic action is taken, the following districts may flip from Republican to Democrat. In the House, we may lose one or both of the seats.
Conclusion and Recommendations
The Republican Party is standing on the cliff of minority status.
If you are running for election in a district that has less than a 10-point Republican advantage, your Democrat opponent is quite possibly ahead.
Don’t wait for the Party. You have to win this election yourself. Focus on likely Independent voters with every piece of mail, every phone call and every door-to-door contact. Focus your financial resources on Independents.
Independent/Party Not Declared voters want to know who you are as a person. They want to know that you care about the economy, education and health care. In the polling that I have seen, immigration is their third and fourth most important issue with these voters.
The doomsday scenario for Republicans is no longer a distant possibility. The danger of minority status is real and imminent. Republicans are running into the stiffest wind it has encountered since 1974. Our State Party is broke and spending money foolishly. The Democrats are well-funded, organized and hungry. It is every man and woman for himself or herself. Good luck. You will need it.
The Republic ran a piece on Sproul’s memo this morning which includes a list of districts that could have Democratic pick-ups. The list includes district 30, an area which hasn’t elected a Democrat since the early 1990’s.
16 Comments
October 7th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Sproul obviously didn’t do his research though.
His list in the memo includes both the Senate and the House for LD-5 (listing the incumbents as they are.) I agree that we have a great Senate candidate in Bill Jeffers who managed to get on the ballot via a very successful write-in campaign to challenge Sylvia Allen, who was handed the seat after the death of Jake Flake.
In the House district though, Sproul shows he hasn’t kept up with anything, as Jack Brown is still the only Democrat running (against Konopnicki and another Republican.) So while I’d love to see Democrats grab another house seat here, it is physically not possible that they could.
We are focused on Jeffers though, plus we want to make darn sure that we turn out votes for Kirkpatrick.
October 7th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Wow, he must be really hard up for business!
October 7th, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Wow…this is about right too. Remember, money is tilting heavily in the Dems favor, the GOP has more territory to protect nationally, there are more open seats nationally that used to be GOP. And like was said, the registration advantage is large.
This is, again, the perfect storm. I have started dialing at the NW Dem party office. The district 26 races are places we can pick up and remain in control.
We have to go all out. Gaining control of the legislature at the state level may be more important than anything.
October 7th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
Go out and dial for LD30 too. Andrea has a real chance there.
October 7th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Thanks Nathan – we finally agree on something!
October 7th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Don’t be fooled folks–this is a call to Republicans to get out and vote.
October 7th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Mariana-
You are correct, Andrea does have a chance in 30. I have been on the phones to Independents for her and the response was great. We just have to keep it up!
Bridget-
My thoughts exactly, this memo was both a warning and a battle cry, the Dems have to kick it up in the last month.
October 8th, 2008 at 8:18 am
The Tucson Citizen endorsed me today http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/daily/all_headlines/98886. An increasing number of thoughtful Republicans are joining the ranks of voters who are voting for only me because they know that their candidates will not be good for the cities, towns, and counties of LD 30.
We have to work together for sound policy. I am already working across the aisle because of my pledge to voters of every party.
October 8th, 2008 at 8:29 am
Andrea Dalessandro got endorsed by the Tucson Weekly (October 2, 2008 issue) as well, page 23. Maybe there’s hope in LD30. The Weekly says
“We’ll be stuck with at least one of them (Antenori and Gowan); it would be of great benefit to Southern Arizona if we weren’t stuck with both.”
October 8th, 2008 at 10:10 am
One Word: Karma.
October 8th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
go Andrea, go 26 slate, go, go, go!!!!!! Take back the legislature and pray Janet doesn’t leave and be forced to leave Jan Brewer in charge. PC
October 8th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Great news, Andrea!!!
October 8th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
Congrats Andrea!
October 9th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
These people are working my last nerve with the “Democrat Party” stuff. Go pound sand, Sproul, you voter suppressing jagoff.
October 10th, 2008 at 7:10 am
By the way, while we are on Andrea’s campaign. I watched her on Arizona Illustrated in her debate. She was fantastic. So smart, so knowledgeable, poised, and the like. No offense Andrea, you weren’t flashly like Antenori, but I think you beat them both.
I wanted to also say that both of her opponents are still spouting off “free market”, less government, lower taxes, and the like. All theory, all theory proven false over the past 8 years.
Andrea, was instead, pragmatic. She seemed to recognize that there is a place for market, there is a place for government, and there is a place for fairness and procees.
Wonderful wonderful job. I you live in District 30, I strongly encourage you to support her. She is worth it.
October 17th, 2008 at 9:21 am
From the full memo—Even Republican Nathan Sproul knows that we will pick up a seat in LD 30. “The most dangerous aspect of Districts 21 and 30 for the House is that Democrats are only running one candidate. This is particularly dangerous with a large influx of Independent voters. The Independents that are breaking Democrat by a 2:1 ratio may just vote for the Democrat and not cast a vote for either Republican. That gives Democrats an excellent opportunity in District 30 and a good opportunity in District 21….District 30 takes in far more moderate than most Republican districts. In my opinion, the Republican nominees in 30 are not reflective of the overall electorate. At least one seat is clearly vulnerable.”
Thank you for your support!