Friday, July 18th, 2008...2:48 pm
New Polling Memo
Jump to Comments
Hey, just got this. I’m just going to throw this out there for y’all to ponder. This is from a polling memo released by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, who surveyed 502 likely voters in CD 8.
Gabrielle Giffords 59%
Tim Bee 35%
The memo also notes Giffords has a 92% name ID and a 57 – 26 favorable/unfavorable rating.
14 Comments
July 18th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Off topic, but I was reading your About page and you brought up the band JFA. I’d just like to namedrop that I was totally good friends with the stepsister of the bassist back in 6th grade. She was also the niece of Don Cornelius of Soul Train.
July 18th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
I think I can top that, but I already see folks cringing, so I won’t do it.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Tom, you reached your musician name-dropping quota during the CE forum last night….
July 18th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Wow…those are some staggering numbers. The GOP can chalk up the numbers to low name recognition for Bee if they want (which could be one reason for the low numbers). However, that would really be very telling. The whole reason he decided to run is that he is known in the District, known among voters, and is the strongest possible challenger to her.
I have talked a lot about the value of incumbency and how a challenger can beat an incumbent. One key issue is that a good challenger would have name recognition. This doesn’t look so good for him at all.
Spin it the way you like, but either people know him and like her way better…or they don’t know him…which is seriously bad for what is coming.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Not surprising for a hard-working, incumbent Congresswoman. Bee is wasting time and money on this race.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Let Bee and the RNC and their congressional committee throw the bigs bucks around in CD-8, that leaves them less money to throw around in other races, especially here in AZ…. AZ could turn blue….
July 18th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
Well said Carol and azw88. I totally agree that Gabrielle has worked hard for this district, has been visible, and has done amazing work as a freshman. We can only see her status in the House grow with more time.
As for what azw88 said. I couldn’t agree more. I think that the GOP is getting spread thin in funding and effort. Look at the numbers. Look at Hay’s take in the race for Renzi’s seat…pitiful. Look also at the challengers to Mitchell…who aren’t close. Even Lord is doing darned well in his efforts against Shaddeg. The more time they spend on CD5 and CD8, the better the chances are in the open seat and Shaddegs for Dems.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
These numbers are inflated and we are in for a close battle with Tim Bee. The Kenski poll cited on the Tucson Weekly blog (she says that Giffords has a 7-point edge) sounds more plausible. Keep in mind that she was Kolbe’s pollster for years and is very respected for her skills and knowledge of this area.
Anyone who read this blog and others in ‘06 knows how fervent my support for Gabby was and still is, but this is going to be a very tight race whne it comes down to it. We can snicker at Bush and his low approval ratings all we want, but no president comes to raise money for someone who doesn’t have a good chance to win.
The Bee brothers have been winning elections in Pima and Cochise Counties for years. He will have all the money he needs, even if Gabby has more. The GOP presidential nominee is a man who has never lost an election in this state. We can’t count on as many Republicans bolting from their own nominee this year and, lest we forget, there is still a Republican edge in voter registration in CD8. Tim Bee is also far more likely to appeal to independents than Randy Graf, while the gay marriage ballot issue will help to arouse the conservative base to get to the polls. Also, if this things gets closer, the NRA and other groups will get their people fired up to oust a Democratic incumbent.
Giffords has many advantages on her side, most importantly the fact that this looks like a good year for Democrats and the fact that she has done a solid job for us in DC. But, some of you folks sound like you think this thing is in the bag. It isn’t!
July 19th, 2008 at 12:22 am
Like we are not assuming no effort on behalf of the campaign, donors, and volunteers. What I am saying is what I am saying all along. I think she will win…I think it will be by 5%. I am not underestimating Bee, nor should anyone, but what I am saying is that there is very little here in the “cards” that tells me he has much of a chance of winning.
I will get back in the office and make phone calls again, I will write another check, and I will not make it easy for Bee…neither should anyone. In the process, I am very hopeful that we might pick up what we need so very very desperately…a dem majority in one or both houses.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:22 am
of the state…whoops.
July 19th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Kral: We can use the help. gaining four seats in the AZ House won’t be easy. With help of folks like you it might just happen.
As to the Weekly poll vs. the Bee/Kenski poll. Margaret Kenski and her husband Hank are truly skilled and experienced, especially due to their work on behalf of Kolbe in this Congressional District.
As with all polls, the data is colored by the people asking the questions. Even Margaret and Hank would admit that (I think).
The answer probably lies somewhere in between the divergent polling data, but in november my money’s on Giffords.
Speaking of inflated, by the way, did anyone else notice a little “inflation” in the cash numbers reported by Mr. Scarpinato of the Star? Yesterday he was saying on-line that Bee took in $600,000. Today it’s down to $500,000; oh, and by the way, Bee has to pick up the costs that couldn’t be hidden by the White House snake-oil accounting system, and he has to share the remaining profit with the state and national GOP.
So did he take in $600K? $500K? Um, do I hear maybe $200,000-$250,000?
I frankly don’t know, and Mr. Scarpinato certainly didn’t help me figure it out.
July 19th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
WTF, Hippo!
July 19th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Все ваши основания – принадлежат нам
July 20th, 2008 at 10:01 am
We have a “russki” sending information on the comments section to talk about an on-line game and all of it’s virtures.