Friday, June 6th, 2008...10:26 am
Why the Mahouts Are Stocking Up on Xanax
A polling memo has been making the rounds that shows that John Shadegg (uncle to former Dennis DeConcini intern Demetria Shadegg) has only a 31% re-elect number. This is down eight points from a previous poll done shortly after his “I am not running, yes I am running” episode back in January.
Although the memo did not give the numbers from a Bob Lord - Shadegg match up, but the poll showed that a generic Democrat vs a generic Republican match up was close. I imagine that Lord’s numbers weren’t given because they are probably pretty bad right now. Most challengers who weren’t, say, Mayor of Tempe, would show poor numbers right now because of their low name ID.
In any event, having more than two-thirds of his constituents entertaining the notion that someone else should be their congressman is probably not where Shadegg wants to be right now.
What makes these numbers even more remarkable is that they come from one of the most reliably Republican districts in the country. Heck, it is where John McCain is registered to vote.
It gets even worse, in this district where Republicans have a 15 point registration advantate, 67% of the folks there have an unfavorable opinion of the job that George W. Bush is doing, but 61% have a favorable opinion of Janet Napolitano.
Not only that, but McCain holds only a narrow five point lead over Barack Obama, 48%-43%. Yeah, Obama ain’t winning there, but you’d think the lead would be overwhelming in a solid Republican district in the man’s home state, no? If it’s like that there, what is it like in the rest of the state?
22 Comments
June 6th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Great news! Bob Lord is a fabulous candidate, especially for that district. Perhaps all these factors will come together to finally get rid of Shadegg.
June 6th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Wow. John Shadegg and his cronies have to be shaking in their golfing spikes.
It’s about time Shadegg lost the vote there. He has been failing to act at every turn. Not only that, but he has voted down every piece of no-brainer legislation like the GI bill.
Residents of the 3rd district really do want change. We want a new face in Washington. We want Bob Lord.
June 6th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Like so many parts of the state, CD3 may not be going blue, but it is turning a lovely shade of purple.
Smart political types are waking up to the fact that there are three parties in this-here state, Republicans, Democrats and Others/independents.
Statewide the Ds are now within four percentage points of parity. When you add in the independents, and factor in their 2-to-1 preference for Democrats AT THE MOMENT (Remember that they’re independent for a reason) it’s a good year to be a Democrat.
But don’t take we independents (yeah, I’m one of them) for granted. We’ll support Republicans when we think they’re right.
Which brings me to the great debate over whether McCain is good or bad for Democrats. Most of my friends worry that he’ll pump up the Republican vote.
I think it’s more likely that he’ll turn out independents who haven’t seen the picture of McCain hanging onto W’s shoulder (or maybe they haven’t seen MoveOn.org’s excellent TV ad). If they buy McCain’s maverick message they’ll turn out for him, but then they’ll pick and choose from the rest of the ticket.
And I think a lot of them will vote Democrat. Especially if the Rs continue to screw up the budget, and the Ds can demonstrate that it’s Weiers, Bee et al who deserve the blame.
June 6th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Nice Try Comrade Ted….
Your ‘boy’ Lord only got barely 1,000 signatures on his petitions. John Shadegg nearly 4 x that amount. You libs are in such denial and living in a drug crazed, delusional world!
Let have a bet Teddie on this one?
June 6th, 2008 at 8:09 pm
Ted, did you edit his grammar, spelling, and sentence structure to make him look bad? Shame on you!
June 7th, 2008 at 6:04 am
I think this will be an interesting race. GOPrano is right to give the incumbent the edge, I mean, the advantage is real and it is still a GOP majority district. However, I hope they all stay confident and blow it. Lord has raised a lot of money for a challenger…Challenger dollars can go a long way because they have to fight the name rec. issue. The election is going to produce massive turnout and many are soured on the GOP…especially indies. If Dems turn out in record numbers (they will), GOPers tend to stay home (they will to some extent), and Lord can lure indies, then this one could be quite interesting.
The bigger issue is that this race forces the GOP to fight here when they need to be fighting hard in Renzi’s district. They also are going to spend enormous amount to get back 5 and 8. Their money is thin this year…they are protecting many seat that have retired..and trying to get back many they lost. They are spread thin…and with all the election dynamics going the way they are…I suspect that upsets are not out of the question.
June 7th, 2008 at 7:05 am
Dear TonyGOPrano (aka McCain ‘boy’):
All your statements are projections. If you don’t know what that means, look it up. The Rove-Limbaugh-Coulter- sixth-grade-bully political fad has peaked. Get used to it.
June 7th, 2008 at 7:23 am
CD -3 going blue or even trending purple? Not so fast ………….. John Shadegg will crush his opponent in 2008 and it won’t be close.
Shadegg is right on the issues, works hard and speaks for the values of the voters in CD - 3. Sounds like a bit of wishful thinking here amongst a few over zealous partisans. With McCain , the Marriage Amendment and several Legislative races on the ballot look for a strong GOP turnout in this election that will favor the Republican in CD-3.
John Shadegg speaks for the very best of what America & the Republican Party stands for. I believe that he will not only be re elected but after the new session begins assume a major leadership position in Congress.
Bruce Ash
Republican National Committeeman
June 7th, 2008 at 11:29 am
Right On Bruce!
These LIBeral Idiots don’t understand that CD-3 is a REPUBLICAN District and by WIDE margins. The GOP turnout in this district (yes I live there) will be HUGE. And Diane, you can KMA!
Three words that drive LIBiots crazy!
PRESIDENT JOHN McCAIN!
June 7th, 2008 at 11:39 am
Dude lay off the caffeine.
June 7th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Interesting, Bruce, that you mention the Marriage Amendment. The most disgusting effort to raise turnout that hurts good people. It is one reason why I left your party 5 years ago.
June 7th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Oh…and remember that the last Marriage Amendment that failed, did so, in part because it would have real economic effects on our state. Some moderate Republicans like the Mayor of Tucson, Presidents of Universities, and a host of others fought it off, not only because it was a hateful scheme but because discrimination harms the economy. Writing discrimination into our state Constitution will only do what economists have said for years…harm efficiency and hurt the economy.
But who cares right? If you can get your folks elected, it will all come out in the wash.
June 7th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Tony,
Those are three words that drive a lot of conservatives crazy too.
June 7th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
I notice that neither Bruce Ash or “Tony” mention Shadegg’s legislative achievements. This is because he does not have any, despite the fact that he served for a dozen years in the majority.
His slogan should be “vote for me and I won’t do anything for the next fourteen years either.”
June 7th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Well Comrade Ted’s Twin comes out to play! John Shadegg has done plenty for those of us who live in CD-3. He, along with John McCain & Jeff Flake resist Earmarks, the government give aways that you liberals think you are entitled to. Gabby Giffords is a great example of this. Claims she is a Moderate to get elected, then votes with Nancy Pelosi 92% of the time. Boy are you ALL in for one hell of a surprise….LMAO!!!!
June 8th, 2008 at 2:12 am
God forbid Gabby helps out her district!
June 8th, 2008 at 6:05 am
Tony: He who laughs last laughs best. I agree with Kral that Shadegg has the incumbent’s edge. But you and Mr. Ash have seen the numbers, and I when I talk to my R friends I hear the nervous termor in their voices.
Nothing should be taken for granted. That includes incumbents like Mr. Shadegg. But the polling doesn’t look pretty for incumbent Republicans.
By the way, Tony. I live in CD3 too. I’m a registered independent, and while it will come as no surprise to hear I’m leaning in the Lord’s direction, you may be surprised at how many indpendents will do the same.
But I won’t join you in the chest-thumping, Tony. They’re independent for a reason. Their votes have to be earned.
June 8th, 2008 at 7:33 am
Tony,
Your theory of government and conservatism as it used to stand is myth, legend, and lies. On being proud of resisting earmarks…that is a joke that McCain and some of them make while they still spend billions and billions and billions of YOUR money on Iraq. Then they have the gall to talk about bringing money to our state as waste.
If John McCain and Shaddegg can’t work with the other Senators to bring home needed projects and infrastructure to our state then I say that they are completely and utterly worthless. Let’s just watch the rest of the states around us continue to gain infrastrastructure while this state slips into the stone age.
June 8th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Bruce,
I certainly appreciate your confidence and the support that you show for your candidate. CD-3 is no easy task to turn blue however there are trends indicating dissatisfaction with Rep. Shadegg. The district is heavily populated with veterans, many who understand how important the original 1944 GI Bill was to them directly or indirectly. I know that you are an ardent supporter of veteran issues but find Rep. Shadegg’s position on his recent vote of the new GI bill more political than sensible. Unfortunately for him, the public supports the Webb/Mitchell bill. This is a bill that will pay huge dividends in the future for individual veterans and our country in treasure and societal progress. I see this as one of the many issues that the rank and file Republicans and Independents are taking issue with those who vote against a good bill for partisan reasons.
Unfortunately for your Party, McCain’s campaigning against this same bill didn’t help his numbers. The rhetoric used by the few opposing this bill is only showing their ignorance of how this is a very wise investment in our future. It only takes a look at the original GI bill to understand the cost versus benefit.
His blind support for Bush foreign, economic, education, energy and trade policies seem to be at odds with his constituency, too. I think there will be more this year questioning his representation of CD-3. No easy task for Bob Lord and the Democratic Party, but thanks to Rep. Shadegg’s backing of bad policy, easier this year then before.
June 8th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
While John Shadegg and John McCain are busy rejecting earmarks, the money continues to flow, it just goes to voters in West Virginia, Alaska and other states where the elected officials actually choose to represent their constituents rather than some outdated philosophy of small government. I’ll vote for Bob Lord in this election because I’m tired of getting screwed by my own representatives and I’ll vote for Barack Obama because rather than building schools and roads in Arizona, McCain wants to keep wasting my money in Iraq.
June 8th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
I’m so disgusted by Shadegg and McCain, seriously, which manly men out there NEED any house or senate staff? all those staff members do is hear whiny constituents complain all day anyway, and real manly men don’t need to complain about that stuff.
Massive stretch of highway maintained by federal funds deteriorating? Boo effing hoo, quit whining, hitch your horses up to your H2 and take your 60 mile commute the old fashioned way, the real conservative way! The only people who want federal highway funds are just after MY HARD EARNED MONEY that I inherited from my parents’ fortune 500 company.
June 9th, 2008 at 9:03 am
The last Shadegg townhall I attended–in fact the ONLY Shadegg town hall ever, he had to bring people in to cheer him on. Even the R’s were pissed off at the guy and were scolded if they asked a questio he didn’t want to answer.
He is out of touch and was right when he said he should quit. The voters will most likely take him up on the offer regardless of his change of heart.
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