Thursday, March 27th, 2008...7:32 am
Good Lord!
The other day, I wrote a post where I said that despite John McCain’s personal popularity, local Republicans still seem to be in trouble. At least one poster questioned my sanity when I said that Bob Lord seems to have a chance against John Shadegg, despite the overwhelming Republican registration in the district. He even accused me of eating bad jelly beans. Hey, as long as I don’t mix the greens with the reds, and I stay away from the orange ones, I can handle them.
Well…poll came out yesterday. Politickeraz has the memo posted on their site. It shows Shadegg with a dismal re-elect mumber of 39%. Below fifty usually gives opposition reason to hope, below fourty…well…lets just say Shadegg’s colleagues may regret that “Come back, Shane!” letter they wrote to him.
In the memo, the authors note that the numbers (including the high number of people who don’t even seem to know who Shadegg is) indicate that “Shadegg could be vulnerable to a focused and well funded challenge.” It appears he has that this year.
11 Comments
March 27th, 2008 at 8:25 am
I confess… you were right. Shadegg does look vulnerable
March 27th, 2008 at 9:07 am
This just shows what voters want and what Bob Lord is all about - fundamental change. Bob Lord for Congress is getting stronger every day.
March 27th, 2008 at 9:17 am
And rumor has it that our good friends at the Arizona Republican Party are struggling to make payroll. The NRCC might have to drop a pretty penny to avoid a bloodbath in their nominee’s home state.
To the earlier “jelly bean” comment: Shadegg only won by 21 points last time. What, exactly, Tony, do you think will allow Shadegg to perform better this time after his little in-out-in dance and the fact that his opponent is one of the most prolific fundraisers among Democratic challengers in the country? Not to mention that the climate for incumbent Republicans may actually be worse this year than last, if only due to the fact that the map the NRCC has to play on is so broad. I bet the loss in IL-14 is stinging pretty bad right now.
I’m not guaranteeing victory or anything, but 25 points? Be serious…
March 27th, 2008 at 11:44 am
I have had my hopes dashed numerous times hoping for an even excellent challenger to beat an incumbent. 95% of incumbents win re-election the House…sometimes more. A slightly lower figure in the Senate. It is why I think Gabrielle Giffords will win in the fall and by a decent enough number to deter future challengers.
That said, the reason why I think Lord has a shot is that some of the key issues of incumbency advantage are blunted. I think Lord had raised his name rec quite a bit from his last run, he has raised a significant amount of money and is he keeping pace. In addition, Andrew’s post above mine is significant as well. The nature of the times are such that the GOP is in major trouble. Fundraising is quite low for the GOP, political winds are blowing strongly against them, (as Tedski’s post shows), and one more thing.
Think about this dynamic. The GOP has much less money raised to House and Senate seats…and much less in the state party. Their voters are not excited either. Yet they face the prospect of having less money to defend more territory. This is another reason why I think Mitchell, Giffords are safe and also doing us a favor.
The GOP has an open seat (that was GOP) to try to take back, they appear to want to pour lots of dollars into CD5 and CD8 (where they are facing incumbents), and they have a formidable challenge in Lord.
All of this means that they have few dollars, that they are spread very thin, and that their efforts are going to be have to be at their highest and in so many different places. There is not enough excitement among their party to do this.
I think trying to get back Giffords and Mitchell’s seats are going to sink them in Renzi’s old one. I also think that they risk losing Shaddegg’s as well.
March 27th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
What is a mumber?
March 27th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Good afternoon, kralmajales.
I read a few weeks ago that Giffords seat was not that secure. After receiving her letter explaining why she was voting for the FISA bill, I admit I was sorely let down, and in fact, I refrained from replying to the missive because I used to live in Key West, Fl., so I didn’t think a long stay in Gitmo would impress me all that much. (I was pretty steamed.)
To answer Appleblossom: Well, one is the loneliest…staying mum and all. ;~)
March 27th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Something I missed on the first read… Although the memo is dated yesterday, this poll was fielded in JANUARY, long before Shadegg’s little tease that had half the Republican legislative caucus checking Craigslist for DC apartments.
Anyone wonder what these numbers would look like now?
Last tidbit. Very conveinient timing for the release of this memo; just in time for national-level PAC directors to see some additional strength from Lord before they make their final contributions before the end of the reporting period. I’d look for very impressive cash-on-hand and total raised numbers from the Lord campaign on their next report.
March 28th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Afternoon Trog69!
Thanks for responding. I think it is safer than most will make it out to be…honestly. She has far more in funding, incumbency advantage working for her all over the place, and there is not enough there for people to change horses…even in a district as muddled as this one is with registration.
In addition, I have yet to see much from Bee and his campaign. While it is early, much of what has gone on behind the scenes leads me to believe that the campaign and voters are not all that motivated on his side of the fence. His donations are no where near where they should be…for a sitting Senate pres. In addition, the issues that should favor him…don’t. A massive state budget deficit that his party and he has presided over, he is far more extremely conservative on social issues than this district, and so on. The budget stuff is going to really bite him too and affect his campaigning. It is a serious serious issue and the negotiation ends are not going to make people happy…right or wrong…he will get the credit.
I don’t say this to say that he is a bad candidate, but simply to say that you must have some serious serious stuff happen to turn out an incumbent. The challenger must likely be flawless and the incumbent must be seriously flawed. Is she flawed in some people’s minds…oh yeah…but to such an extent that is needed to have her lose…no way. Is he flawless? Clearly better? Uh…NOPE.
March 30th, 2008 at 10:12 am
The Bee-Giffords race is going to be VERY close, make no mistake about it. There is a level of hubris coming from some supporters of Giffords that is disconcerting, especially this early in the year. I am a Giffords backer dating back to her time in the State Senate, but I think she is in for the fight of her life. The nomination of John McCain as the GOP nominee for president has made her position even more precarious.
Early money may be “like yeast” and Giffords is way ahead in fundraising, but the GOP knows that this year offers their best chance to knock her off. Bee will have all the money he needs for his own campaign and independent groups will pony up their own dough to tout him and trash her. We are going to see a ton of ads from all sorts of sources run in CD8, many of them going after Giffords.
A recent poll on the presidential race shows McCain leading among independents, whether his foe is Clinton or Obama. Bee has always run and governed as someone above partisanship. He will run this race the same way, try to paint Giffords as a “Pelosi puppet” and advertise himself as being in the McCain mold in terms of both independence and an ability to reach across the aisle. Giffords knows this and has comported herself in the same way while in office; a point she will pound relentlessly as she battles Bee for the indie vote. Hopefully, some of our brethren on the far Left, who have pilloried her for her sensible positions on Iraq, will not complicate this task.
McCain’s name on the ballot will energize Southern Arizona Republicans in a way that might not happen in a Maricopa district. If Republicans unify behind McCain and independents swing his way, too, Giffords is in serious trouble in CD8, a district where independents are the deciding factor, but where Republicans still outnumber Democrats. By the way, I don’t see Tidball taking substantial votes from either Bee or Giffords in any segment of the electorate, despite the buzz he has engendered on some of the conservative blogs.
Bee and his brother have built up huge name recognition and a good reputation over the years in Eastern Pima County, especially Green Valley. They are well known and well liked in Cochise County, too. Giffords also hails from the eastern part of Pima County and she will battle Bee in that area. The linchpin of CD8 may be in the Northwest, which speaks to the wisdom of Giffords’ recent work on behalf of the Town of Marana. The outcome of the Oro Valley elections also bodes well for her. Bee should fervently hope that he gets to run on a ballot with Pete Hershberger in that area…and not the polarizing Al Melvin. If Bee is seen as a “Hershberger Republican” in LD26, he will take away votes Giffords won in 2006 when her opponent was a “Melvin Republican.” She has to be competitive in this area to win.
It is only March 30th. I feel that the early “silence” from the Bee camp is ominous, not reassuring. My guess is that they are plotting and lying in wait. Bee is a hardworking campaigner who has never lost an election. He will be amply funded, the standardbearer of his party will be an Arizonan who is similar to him in many respects and he benefits from the low opinion the public currently has about the Congress, whose ratings have gone DOWN during the years of the Democratic majority.
Giffords is an astute, approachable leader who can point to many accomplishments as a freshman representative. She has earned a reputation in the district for a commitment to constituent service, objectivity and visibility. Her positions on the issues of the day track well with those of her constituents. She can win re-election by touting these attributes and by pointing out that Bee’s voting record is actually quite similar to that of her 2006 opponent, Randy Graf, and by tying him to George W. Bush.
This is going to be a nailbiter and I doubt that the victor will prevail by more than 4-5 points. The battle has not even started. Those of us who appreciate and respect the work Rep. Giffords has done on our behalf had best prepare for a very daunting challenge from a formidable opponent with many attributes and advantages who will have all the money he requires.
March 31st, 2008 at 8:13 am
I kinda-sorta agree with Rex that this won’t be a moon walk for our Astronaut’s wife. Bee will have plenty of money, and Giffords will have to deal with the kinds of attack ads that were missing from the last race because, frankly, the GOP establishment wrote off the district when Graf won the primary.
As Kral pointed out, Giffords has a lot of things on her side - she’s been building a fund-raising machine since her very first run for the state House in Dist. 13. She has incumbency, and she has strong appeal to the moderates - including many who plan to vote for McCain.
And don’t be distracted by Bee’s absence. He’s the President of the Senate, and it’s a tough year. He’s already drawn criticism for being AWOL. Some legislators say he’s slowed down legislative business because he’s spending too much time on his Congressional race.
Once the session ends - and to my surprise, that may happen by the end of the month - you’ll see Bee emerge in full campaign mode.
Let’s check back in June and see how the CD8 race shapes up.
March 31st, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Just a prediction is all. I am certainly not one to tell everyone to rest on their laurels or not to work hard on her behalf. That was not my intention at all. My arguments assumed the same type of campaign machine that I volunteered with last time and continued fundraising now until fall.
That said, I am not wringing my hands. I think if the campaign does things right Rex, everything I said (and you said too…about his record being close to Grafs) is going to make this a whole lot easier than any here thing.
Will it be a blowout, nope. Will she win, yep.
And in the process, the GOP will have wasted a lot of money that they should have put into open seats, the many GOP held districts that have retired, and the many districts that are going to be closer to normal and that they will have to defend.
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