Monday, March 24th, 2008...11:19 am
Yeah, I Remember That Cartoon. I Still Don’t Get Why the Orangutan Talked Like Edward G. Robinson, Though…
I’m hearing various theories about John McCain’s coattails here in Arizona. I’m not buying that he’ll have much of them. Even Barry Goldwater’s candidacy didn’t produce much in the way of coattails here (even though it did in the South). His friend Richard Kleindienst lost to Democrat Sam Goddard for Governor at the same time that he narrowly carried Arizona running for President.
The two hot congressional races should be in CD 1 and CD 8. In CD 8, Tim Bee has not been able to keep pace with Gabrielle Giffords’s fundraising. In CD 1, big name Republican candidates decided not to make a go of it, despite the decent Republican performance in the district. Kris Mayes is set to resign her seat on the Corporation Commission next month, but she’ll start off way behind in fundraising. Heck, Bob Lord looks like he’ll be competitive against John Shadegg in a solid Republican district. That is something that would be unimaginable even in the best of Democratic years.
Also, McCain’s popularity and stature doesn’t seem to rub off on those he has endorsed. The best example is that McCain endorsee Jim Oberweiss lost to Democrat Bill Foster in an Illinois special election earlier this month. This was even bigger news at the time given that this was the previously titanium-clad Republican seat of Dennis Hastert. Not McCain’s home state, but it doesn’t say a heck of a lot about his personal popularity transfering to other Republicans he campaigns for.
Although I don’t expect either Democrat to campaign here baring some bizarre events on the Republican side, other national Democratic money will probably be spent here, such as from the DCCC and the lesser known Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. The DLCC hired staff and spent money here in 2000, when Al Gore’s campaign muckety mucks couldn’t be bothered to spell Arizona. Expect a great deal of activity here despite McCain’s candidacy.
4 Comments
March 24th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Comrade Ted,
Guess the Easter Bunny laced your jelly beans with some goofy pills. You think your ‘pal’ Lord has a prayer against John Shadegg? Your nuts. Shadegg will win that District by 25%. And it looks like your ‘former’ GF Gabby is running a little scared vs. Sen. Bee? If you think John McCain has no coattails, just wait until November! This is really getting fun! Maybe we can finally rid Arizona of the infestation known as democrats once and for all!!! Can you say President McCain? Yahoo!
March 24th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Tony,
Actually, Lord does have a shot. If you look at the voter registration numbers, they are very similar to those in CD5 where Harry Mitchell won two years ago. Will Lord be facing J.D. Crookworth? No, but I don’t think the little, “I’m not running again, ha just kidding,” stunt that Shadegg pulled a few weeks ago will help him, nor do I see the trend for Independents to break the Dems way in Congressional races slowing down. If you consider that, the impressive amount of money Lord is raising and the fact that McBush won’t be around to help out, I think he could pull it off. Even if Shadegg did win there is now way it would be by 25%.
Also, Gabby is scared of Tim Bee? Did I miss a press release? You’re telling me a guy who dodged the resign to run law and has trouble raising money has a shot? Yeah, cause anyone could be Senate President during a year when the state is in a budget crisis AND run an effective campaign for Congress. Bee already doesn’t have a foot left to shoot.
Oh, and while my grammar may not always be perfect, this stuff really bugs me. “Your nuts,” as in Ted is nuts (which he isn’t) should be, you’re nuts. Otherwise, you are talking about something completely different.
March 24th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Hate to say it, Tedski, but the Oberweis example is a bad one for two reasons: 1) it was actually Obama’s home state, so not at all a level playing field, and 2) Jesus, Buddha, and the Pope could have endorsed Oberweis and he would still have lost. He really was that bad.
March 25th, 2008 at 11:41 am
Oberweis did however, finally, win a competitive primary after a couple unsuccessuful attempts for other office.
We should applaud him for his progress. He’s come a long way from his crazy helicopter-over-Soldier-Field immigration ads from the 2004 Senate race.
And Tony, this reliance on registration advantage… you’ve got to get off of it. I remember all your folks saying how Bill Montgomery was going to win by 10 because of the “insurmountable” GOP registration edge.
If you’re not careful you’re going to have a 6-2 Congressional split, and not in the way you would like.