Monday, February 11th, 2008...4:37 pm
That Certainly Changes Things, Donnit?
Jump to Comments
I just got a text from one of my vast network of sources telling me that Rep. John Shadegg will not be seeking re-election.
No explanation of course, so I have no idea what is up with this.
23 Comments
February 11th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
WTF!~!!!!!!!!!!!!!
February 11th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
I was not aware we had a Congressman named “Shadegg.” Gee, after fourteen years in the House, he must have a long list of legislative accomplishments, particularly in those years when he was in the majority.
February 11th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
*falls over* Wow…
February 11th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0211shadegg-race0211-ON.html
February 11th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
I know exactly what is up with this — Shadegg is running for US Senate in ‘08.
I just wrote this up, including the statute at www.wactivist.com.
From the good ol’ revised statutes:
16-222. Vacancy in the office of United States senator or representative
A. When a vacancy occurs in the office of United States senator or representative in Congress by reason of death or resignation, or from any other cause, the vacancy shall be filled at the next general election. At such election the person elected shall fill the unexpired term of the vacated office.
[…]
C. For a vacancy in the office of United States senator, the governor shall appoint a person to fill the vacancy. That appointee shall be of the same political party as the person vacating the office and shall serve until the person elected at the next general election is qualified and assumes office.
February 11th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
Good thing I was sitting down when I read this…
February 11th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
A few things:
1. Bob Lord will win this seat.
2. The dirty little secret is that Shadegg did NOT want to risk a possible loss in a Democratic tidal wave, thus ruining his chances at the senate in 2010. Why run and bust his ass against the formidible Bob Lord? Now he gets to run for McCain’s senate seat in 2010, unsullied by a possible loss in 2008 AND he gets to transfer all the money he’s raised so far into a 2010 senate race. A cool million already. Look for a Shadegg-Janet senate fight in ‘10.
3. David Burnell Smith will run and may have a chance if the primary has more than five challengers. He can “do a Trent Franks” and run very very hard right on abortion and gays and get the nom with 25% of the vote. (SHUDDER!!!!!). But then he’d be easy pickings in the general. Smith has a lot of his own money, apparently.
February 11th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Shadegg’s stated reason for retirement? Wait for it …
to spend more time with his family. Breaking news from the Arizona Capitoal Times:
“The bottom line is that this is a personal decision between my family and me, about our (cue sentimental music) dreams, goals, and ambitions …”
This had absolutely NOTHING to do with the pending investigation into my illegal campaign contributions. Absolutely nothing, I tell you!
February 11th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
Tony over at www.wactivist.com has a pretty interesting, and I think correct assumption that Shadegg will run for McCain’s seat in 2008. The Governor appoints a seat holder if McCain resigns to be the Republican nominee, but the appointment only last until the next general election.
February 11th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Someone is speculating that he is stting up for a run to replace McCain if McCain gives up his seat after the convention.
Frankly, I don’t see McCain giving up his seat. I mean, being the senior Senator from Arizona hasn’t interfered in his ability to campaign during the primary season, why should it stop him during the general election.
February 11th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
Oh My “LORD”
February 11th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Come by my Blog tomorrow for the complete story on this!
February 12th, 2008 at 6:23 am
Of course, I will miss John in the House. But, he is not gone just moving on.
The FEC thing is NOT a problem and neither is Bob Lord. Y’all just wait!
February 12th, 2008 at 6:39 am
Shadegg’s father, Steve, was seen in the 1960s and before as the political strategist who “created” Barry Goldwater. He ran for the U.S. Senate himself and lost — to Carl Hayden, as I recall.
February 12th, 2008 at 6:44 am
Oh, Steve…it was even worse than that…Steve Shadegg lost his primary that year to…
wait for it…
Evan Mecham…who thankfully went on to get beaten by Hayden.
February 12th, 2008 at 8:51 am
All I can say is live boy or dead girl. I don’t think for one minute Shadegg thought he was going to lose this November. I also don’t think he did this in anticipation of McCain’s resignation…why would he? If McCain resigns (which I highly doubt) he could have resigned the next day and declared for his seat. Nope - I smell something funky…more damaging than FEC violations too I would wager.
There’s something more to this story (though I doubt we will get it from our lousy newspaper). My guess is that Lord somehow knew this was coming…finally explains his ability to raise incredible funds and get high profile endorsements.
Although I really want to believe both Lord and Kirkpatrick can win in November and usher in a day in Arizona I thought I would never see - Democrats outnumbering Republicans in our Congressional delegation - I am still weary of the down-ballot impact of McCain at the top of the ticket.
February 12th, 2008 at 9:04 am
If I had to guess, I would bet that there is some pending investigation (like others have mentioned) that might have become rather embarassing. Two Arizona Congressmen have gone down over K Street.
Conservatives say it might be because he just wants to retire or get ready for McCain’s seat if he vacates it.
All of this is speculation, but this sure throws a monkey wrench into everything. Now there are two open seats…Lord has a big fundraising advantage over everyone now…others must scramble to run for the seat…and the GOP must spread its ever thin resources across 1, 2, and 5 and 8. A grand opportunity for the dems.
February 12th, 2008 at 11:18 am
If you were a conservative, would you want to be in the House next year?
Jeff Flake will have a lot of fun. Everyone else is going to be miserable.
February 12th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
I think the McCain resignation theory has a lot of merit…
1.) If McCain loses the presidency, he wouldn’t be seeking re-election to the Senate, anyway.
2.) One of McCain’s general election hurdles to overcome is going to be all of his missed votes in recent years. His resignation helps him avoid the discussion entirely.
3.) I’m sure the GOP is crapping themselves thinking of how they will beat the Gov in 2010. Perhaps the only way to do this is with a strong Republican incumbent. But how? ….
4.) If McCain resigns within six months of the November election, we will vote to elect a replacement for the remainder of his two-year term in November. A sitting Senator Shadegg would have a much better chance against the Gov. than former Rep. Shadegg. (Note: If McCain happens to resign before then, it triggers a special election, the general for which could occur as soon as 110 days from now.)
5.) This catches the Democrats flat footed. Shadegg is prepped to run, has over 1 million in a federal committee, and will have McCain’s support. The Dems have no candidates with the ability to raise federal money quickly, with the exception of Jim Pederson who can self-finance.
If I’m a crazy conspiracy theorist, let me know.
And I have to give Tony over at Wactivist credit for the original idea of McCain resigning to run. Good catch, Tony.
February 12th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Please disregard my mention of the 110 days thing above. Only appplies to Congresspeople, not Senators.
February 12th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Still doesn’t explain why Shadegg would announce his intention not to seek re-election (it is not a resignation as some have claimed) now…what good does it do him to say he wants out of Washington for “family reasons” then lo and behold, declare for Senate if the Old Man does resign?
Doesn’t add up.
February 12th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Well if McCain resigns we can stop paying him to run for the Presidency.
The resign to run law is making more sense everyday.
February 12th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Michelle Davidson, if Shadegg waited until McCain’s resignation, which won’t likely come until July, he would effectively hand the seat to Lord. There is no way that someone could come up to speed in fundraising to match Lord. (Shadeg would keep all of his $$ for his run for the senate).
No, Shadegg resigning now makes it easier for the Republicans to keep CD-3 and give Shadegg the senate.
Leave a Reply