Friday, January 4th, 2008...11:27 am
More Pundit Logic
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Get this straight, y’all:
- Hillary Clinton is finished because she came in third.
- Mitt Romney is finished because he came in second.
- John McCain came in fourth, but will win it all.
17 Comments
January 4th, 2008 at 11:53 am
hahhahaha…
That, to an extent, is my pundit logic as well. In a world of expectations and media driven politics, this is how Iowa/NH work. It might suck, but it is often true.
Hillary is in trouble because she “should” have won and let what was a major lead in January slip to nothing. She was beaten by 8% points or more, when she “should” have won. Last, Edwards and Obama supporters have 2nd choicers as each other. I suspect Obama did everything he needed to last night with that win and AMAZING speech. Despondent Edwards folk might go the way of Obama in NH. If Obama wins NH, barring some massive mistake or disaster, he will win the nomination….so Hillary is out.
Romney…well…same thing. Should have won…expectations were high. He lost by 9% points. A Big big loss. He “should” win NH too because he is the gov of the major media market that feeds NH. He might win, but if he doesn’t or even comes in a close 2nd, pundits will brand him a loser again.
McCain…maybe a winner…yes. If he comes in 2nd or has a surprise win in NH, Romney drops massively. McCain could be strong in Nevada..giving him some steam. Then he is well known in SC and Graham has been working for him there for a long time. He could siphon Romney support and set up a battle royale of Huckabee v. McCain in South Carolina for the “soul” of the GOP. Evangelicals vs. mainstream GOP.
Who wins? Hell I don’t know. But if Huck can make a decent showing in NH…not win…but decent showing to keep him moving. I could see Huck winning in SC…and then…look out.
January 4th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
I think that Senator Clinton is not out even after a second or third place win in NH.
January 4th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Apple,
If she loses in NH to Obama again then where does she eventually stop him? Momentum will go his way, people will go with the winner, and then, in SC he will face a 50% black primary electorate that will likely support him, college students in Columbia, Clemson, and Charleston. I just dont see where she can stop him if she doesnt win NH.
If you are right, this is the prediction of the year though!
Take care!
January 4th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Appleblossom,
We want to believe again. We want to believe in how great this nation can be. We’re done with the divisions and the partisan snipping. Hillary is an amazing Senator and would be a fantastic president that would fight against the Republican machine with strength and intelligence everyday. But we need something different in today’s America. We need to transcend partisan differences, to bring left, right, and center together to solve the massive problems that we face. Only one candidate can do that.
I believe in America again. I believe in Obama.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Anyone with the money and name ID that she has has a chance.
But I am hoping the results in NH are slightly more evenly split between the three-*I* want an actual convention where we have a REAL balloting process.
Why? It generates huge amounts of excitement, makes people pay attention to what is going on and may actually get even more people to the polls on Election Day in November. Last night apparently there were well over 200,000 people caucusing…THAT is what we need in this country, more people showing up to take part.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
I’m assuming this post is in the same spirit as your endorsement of Biden.
I’m flying back from Iowa now — fully convinced that Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination and the Presidency. I volunteered at a caucus in Davenport, Iowa (see DemocraticDiva.com for notes from the caucus). We were overwhelmed by the numbers of caucus-goers who came out — we expected about 150 and there were over 450 — and many of them first-time caucusers and newly-registering voters. While many came out for Obama, many also came out for Clinton including moms bringing their moms and daughters. As I left the airport in Davenport, I ran into the baggage handler who had told me the day I arrived that she loved “my girl.” She told me she and her daughter had caucused for the first time last night and they were ready to go the distance for Hillary.
I chatted with several other women in the airport who all told me they had caucused for Hillary and really wanted to see her win — and I wasn’t even wearing a button or other chum. It’s time to elect a woman President and women are going to do it.
New Hampshire will be an important state, but the election will be decided February 5 in Arizona and other states not previously on the pundits’ radar screen.
Hillary Clinton will be our next President. Hooray!
January 4th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
If Hillary Clinton is our next president then I am definitely going on PROZAC. There is no way I’m going into Bush’s third term unmedicated!
January 4th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
Pam -
Yep…same as the Biden endorsement.
January 4th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
I think we’re ready for a female president, but I think that Hillary is a too-flawed vessel with regards to electability. I like her issue stances and I think she’s smart and have a good impression of her policy stances.
However, she presents herself in a way that presumes she’ll win the nomination. Her speeches are uninspiring/flat/don’t connect. She has too much baggage from the past and too many voters (including me) have a negative perception of her temperament/character. A Clinton nomination would spur significant raising of funds for Republicans. I think Clinton at the head of the ticket would hurt Democratic efforts to increase its majority in Congress.
January 4th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
I think Gretchen is correct.
I will be a bit more critical. Please don’t get me wrong either, I am not a volunteer or operative for Obama, although I like him enough to have donated a small amount to him 4 times now.
All that said, you can say what you want about how inspiring Clinton was and who she brought out. That inspires me too. However, with all the organization everyone speculated that she had, Obama’s was just plain better. His campaign is better. He thrashed her…not just beat her but thrashed her (9%) when he wasn’t supposed to have a chance…when no one was supposed to have a chance.
The man is electric. I had goose bumps listening to his speech last night. I thought about students like mine pouring their hearts out for him and how much that has rubbed off on me. I doubted that they would actually turn out for him…and I was wicked wrong.
I truly don’t believe anyone can beat him from here on out. I don’t see a state where he can’t win or show extremely well. I can’t say that for any other candidate.
As much as I would love to see a woman as President and as much as I would support her if she got the nomination. Obama makes me believe in a better America and Hillary doesn’t. I also believe strongly that he will bring fresh faces into the executive branch with energy while Hillary will bring her pals and the those left over from Bill’s administration.
I would like to see some of those young people and others with talent and without pure connection to be in the executive branch.
That is why I am supporting Obama…
January 4th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
My dream ticket would be Obama/Richardson.
Right now I’m listening to Hillary speaking (today) in New Hampshire. This speech is emblematic of her public speaking ability. She cannot pull off giving a “speech”–she doesn’t have Obama’s electrifying (good description, Kramajales) speaking ability. The goal with a speech is to connect with your audience, yet she sounds like she is “giving a speech”–she doesn’t sound like she is trying to communicate with the individuals in the audience. She didn’t sound authentic/real. Her voice sounded strained at times. Her voice kept at the same pitch, tone, speed throughout the speech–no dynamicism. Her text was fully of generalities and no concrete examples of what she has accomplished in the past for the listener to come away with to think about. Her speaking has not improved much from when I heard her a few years ago. How can her advisors keep allowing this?
The concern re “experience” is bogus. None of the governors who have become president over the past 30 years had much Washington experience.
Also, seeing how Hillary has handled right-wing criticisms on her and her husband in the past does not give me ANY confidence in how she is going to handle what they’ll hit her with if she wins the nomination. Her responses in the past have not promoted a perception of her being strong, confident, high-minded, or classy. The right wingers did go after her and her husband, but publicly calling it a “right-wing conspiracy” is a not a strong/effective response. She has too much baggage–too much material for the Republicans to mine for use against her.
January 5th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Do not overlook Governor Sibelius of Kansas as an outstanding running mate for any of the Democratic contenders and a means for having a woman on the ticket. She is bright, savvy and has won two terms in a state in the heartland that has not always been favorable to us. Politically, she has shrewdly taken advantage of a rift in her state’s GOP, even recruiting a former Republican to run for (and win!) a statewide office. She is also someone who has garnered praise for her work with the state’s budget and advocacy for schools. A female governor brings excitement, executive experience and no Washington baggage to a national ticket that will (no matter who wins among the top three) feature a presidential candidate with NO executive experience. The fact that Sibelius is from a “red state” makes it even more of a wise choice.
January 5th, 2008 at 10:50 am
If Obama heads the ticket, he is going to need a VP with stature/gravitas, some foreign policy experience [one of his perceived weaknesses] and an unblemished record. Is it possible to find this?
Having Obama heading the ticket would provide more than enough “excitement”.
January 6th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
I wonder if Hillary’s own mouth will be what finishes off her campaign. Her remarks in New Hampshire about her being the real agent of change for the past 35 years is very telling, not to mention her borderline nastiness to Obama. It seems as though she thinks that Bill’s career was her career as well.
People should listen to Hillary especially now that her “inevitable” nomination as presidency does not seem as certain as it once did.
God help us if this woman gets elected.
January 6th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
Good grief.
Here it is, only days after the Iowa caucuses, and already people are talking about who will run for Vice-President. Yikes! Can’t we at least get through the New Hampshire primary first?
January 7th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Appleblossom–
I know I’m a little late to this discussion, but I wanted to respond to something you said about the convention, that you want it to be “exciting” and make people “pay attention” by having things come down to the balloting.
I could not disagree more. Historically, one of the strongest indicators of a weak general election candidacy is that candidate having gone late primary challenges and a divided convention. I’d cite stats, but to be honest I just worked a double and am not up to it. I’ll do it upon request, however.
I support Obama, but if Senator Clinton– or anyone else, for that matter– is going to be the nominee then I hope things are settled pretty much right after the February 5th primaries. This election is far too important for us to be sniping at each other into the Spring and Summer. We need to pick a candidate early, fully unite behind him / her, and start raising money and issue awareness immediately to ensure that Democrats don’t botch yet another close election that was ours to lose. This one is too important.
January 7th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Probably because I could care less who wins this time around (I get to sit this election out), I am much more interested in getting people to care about the whole process again.
Do I want the 1920 Democratic Convention to happen again? No, 102 ballots helps no one but do I want to have more of a contest then the past 40 years? Yes. An convention for both parties like the 1952 Republican one with Taft, Eisenhower and Warren would be good for generating excitement among the regular people who increasingly feel that they are not a part of the process.
Perhaps it is the inspiration from Howard Dean and his fifty state strategy but I feel much more strongly about getting people involved then just winning this one election.
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