Tuesday, November 13th, 2007...11:05 am
Toast, Anyone?
I’d suggest that at Harry Mitchell’s re-election party next year, they serve toast. Why? Because that is what every Republican watcher said the guy would be after he beat J. D. Hayworth last year. Mitchell would be a one-term wonder along with Jim McNulty and Karan English and would end up doing those American Express ads that say, “Do you know who I am?” if they still ran those.
New zeitgeist: where is the person who will defeat Mitchell? Over at Wactivist, they have a take on the three candidates whose names are floating. Former legislator Laura Knaperek has stepped up. Aside from such weird stances as apparently being for men raping their wives, she didn’t adapt to the changes in her old legislative district, which had become more moderate, even liberal. It was similar changes in the the whole congressional district that made things difficult for Hayworth to get re-elected against a solid candidate. Jim Ogsbury has given enough money to his campaign to make things interesting, but he isn’t well known and I doubt that people are in the mood to elect an industry lobbyist to congress. As poorly known as Ogsbury is, I have my doubts that David Schweikert is much better known, even from his “lofty” position as Maricopa County Treasurer. I am a political junkie, but my county treasurer’s name, Beth Ford, doesn’t escape from recesses of my brain so easily. I only remember the name of the one before her because he was played by William Shatner.
Not that I think that Mitchell won’t have it difficult, but the crowing I heard last year seems to have died down a wee bit.
11 Comments
November 14th, 2007 at 7:25 am
HA! Tedski is just writing about CD 5 because he can’t face the fact that his girl-friend Gabby is going to get stomped by Tim Bee!
November 14th, 2007 at 7:56 am
Your nom de plume is apropos.
November 14th, 2007 at 8:11 pm
D.G.Z.:
I have a feeling that you Republicans may be getting ’stung’ on that one too.
November 15th, 2007 at 1:21 am
William Shatner played a Pima County treaurer?
I must have missed that.
But I’m pretty sure that J.D. Hayworth is a Klingon.
November 15th, 2007 at 7:24 am
I was certainly glad Harry was elected, but his vote for the FISA bill in August and for the condemnation of the Petraeus ad made me wonder. He plays it too safe. You take what you can get, I guess.
November 16th, 2007 at 6:04 am
Sorry guys, but I do think Harry will have a hard time and most likely will not make it out again. The comments about the candidates do have some validity but they do not tell the whole story.
Mitchell did not win; Hayworth lost. The big, bold, and bellowy Mr. Hayworth wore out his welcome and was attacked viciously on top of it; many votes were not for Harry but for anybody but JD. They may not have been so pleased to vote for a Dem but at least they knew the Dem. This made for the slim margin by which Harry bested JD and will likely not be repeated.
In a Presidential cycle voters think about a lot of things besides who they have grown less than fond of. The surge is working and by mid-spring who knows what could be going on between Iran/Pakistan/China/or insert the maniac du joir and the US. The economy is tight and Arizona will have tax relief on their minds.
The Dem Presidential candidates will not offer the Arizona voter in CD5 sufficient relief from those worries. They will vote conservatively for Congress in order to counter the possibility of a Dem president. Hedging their bets that at least Congress will offset their fears.
The GOP candidate that they know best by the primary will be the one to make it out. The same benefit voters gave Dem Harry over GOP Hayworth will be a factor in the general. The devil you know…
Tax cuts, fiscal responsibility, national security, immigration, all issues that will be front and center. Harry didn’t vote for the things they will be looking at and they will make it personal. Personal to them. The revolt of ‘06 is over.
Harry is a nice guy, but not so good a Congressman by those standards, I too believe his days are numbered.
November 16th, 2007 at 10:18 pm
Anne, per usual, I agree with most of what you say. Although not a lot of people get to see it, Harry is not overly nice. I found it interesting that due to his lack of accomplishment in Congress the County Dems had to play the “Grandpa Card” to defend him last week. Harry has turned out to be everything he said was wrong with Congress — and he has done it effortlessly.
November 17th, 2007 at 6:37 am
I have seen Harry be, as you put it “not overly nice”. When he was at the legislature, no one wanted to be the guy Harry didn’t like because well, if the guy everyone likes doesn’t like you, what does that mean? He would get you in committee if you misspoke or made a step to the wrong side. Secretly there were a lot of whispers that not eveyone was a fan. But it is like that in politics, if you say it out loud and it comes back on you…watch out!
But, he can be a very nice and charming man.
I suspect he is a small fish in a huge pond in DC and is trumped at his own game.
November 19th, 2007 at 11:25 am
This race is going to be tough for all of the republican candidates especially since there are some solid candidates this election cycle. I like the fact that Schweikert and Knaperek made a pledge to not partake in “Ear Marks”. I highly doubt Ogsbury will take that pledge given he has been apart of the mess in Washington earlier in his career and he is currently a lobbyist. I want to see and experienced leader in that position and I am okay with knaperek or Schweikert… Ogsbury on the other hand… Can you say pro-pork spending?
November 19th, 2007 at 11:26 am
This race is going to be tough for all of the republican candidates especially since there are some solid candidates this election cycle. I like the fact that Schweikert and Knaperek made a pledge to not partake in “Ear Marks”. I highly doubt Ogsbury will take that pledge given he has been apart of the mess in Washington earlier in his career and he is currently a lobbyist. I want to see a candidate that will be fiscally responsible in that position and I am okay with knaperek or Schweikert… Ogsbury on the other hand… Can you say pro-pork spending?
November 20th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
Ann and Walter– can I assume you’d be happier with JD Hayworth in the seat?
And no, Dennis Kucinich would not win CD5 in a billion billion years. You know who would? Harry “Tempe’s Father” Mitchell.