Monday, October 1st, 2007...5:10 pm
Sure She’s Surging Ahead, but Remember that Tenzing Norgay Was There First
I was sent some polling numbers for our primary here in Arizona:
Hillary Clinton 38
Barack Obama 18
Al Gore 18
John Edwards 10
Bill Richardson 5
Compare these to the same poll released in August:
Clinton 28
Obama 17
Gore 17
Edwards 13
Richardson 9
I don’t know why these guys are still including Gore, but hey. It would appear that Clinton not only has a solid lead here, but is gaining ground. I would like recommend that Clinton’s fans not to get to sucked into these polling numbers.
Back in 2004, Wesley Clark led the polls up until days before the primary (and by the way, he wouldn’t have even shown up in September polls). But the momentum built in the previous primaries by John Kerry slingshoted him to victory here. I also wonder if the fact that 2004 was our first Democratic Presidential Primary and comparatively low turnout skewed the definition of a “likely voter” and made the poll a little less accurate.
Clinton’s campaign has put together a volunteer steering committee for Arizona, and it will be based out of Tucson and run by local attorney JoJene Mills.
11 Comments
October 2nd, 2007 at 10:26 am
Do you ever get polled? I vote every time and I don’t, and no one I know does either. But 18% of the people that do get polled in AZ still pick non-candidate Al Gore!?!
Bill Richardson has more support in AZ than these questionable poll numbers show, and he is gaining support as the only top-tier candidate committed to ending the Iraq war immediately.
I am very skeptical of these polls. Wait until people actually start voting in the primaries.
October 2nd, 2007 at 1:04 pm
I don’t know. I think Clinton is really surging and has the kind of campaign that Giffords had. Very much a smart, establishment type campaign that hinges on organization, contacts, name recognition, experience….and money! I was curious to see what Obama and Hillary came up with in this reporting period. Since the last period, Hillary has surged in the polls and I expected her to outraise Obama this time. Apparently she did with $27 Million to Obama’s impressive $20 Million. She is surging in fundraising and winning over some who have supported the other candidates in the past.
Still, while I would bet on Hillary if forced to bet, Obama has raised enough to run an effective campaign and has more than enough to challenge. One win in Iowa…and everything changes.
To do that, though, he needs to get Edwards out of the way…or vice versa. The longer both are in the race, the easier it is for Hillary to win state after state after state and sow up the nomination. Edwards and Obama are splitting the “other than Hillary vote”.
October 5th, 2007 at 1:06 pm
Hillary Clinton totally lost me. This past weekend I understand she was here, in Tucson, but was meeting only with people who donated $2300 to her campaign. The message I get from that is that those of us without such deep pockets are not welcome. When I find a phrase to express my disgust, I’ll be sure to share it! For the record, if anyone is interested, my support and what few dollars I can spare, go to John Edwards.
October 5th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
Silly to compare (or warn about) Dean or Clark’s numbers.
Um, are those two as known or as “big” as Hillary Rodham Clinton?
C’mon, a flash in the pan she ain’t.
October 5th, 2007 at 1:12 pm
I’ve done several Hillary events with $20.
But they have been in one of the very early states or close by (Boston).
After IA, NH, SC, and NV, I’m sure she’ll have cheaper events in AZ. Hell, Harry Mitchell’s events aren’t cheap, either.
October 5th, 2007 at 8:36 pm
A $2300 event sends a very clear message of where you are looking for support. Whether intended or not, it tells me that without deep pockets, I don’t count for much. Very insulting - very. And yes, don’t bother telling me the obvious, I have taken offense.
October 5th, 2007 at 10:42 pm
Most of Hillary’s events are expensive for a reason: she wants to win, and to win you need money, period. Take your head out of the sand and join the rest of us.
If there were one thing Regan got right it was his motto ‘Thou shalt not speak ill of thy other Republicans’. We could use some unity, for once, it is starting to get embarrasing.
October 6th, 2007 at 12:40 pm
The Tenzing Norgay reference is *brilliant*.
October 13th, 2007 at 12:32 am
I think Hillary will have a VERY hard time winning over independents. She has too much baggage that the swift boat types in the Republican party can use against her in ads AND to raise money from the 30% or so in this country that can’t stand her. The top Republicans candidates are already bashing her (and each other) in below-the-belt ways. Guilliani is a slimeball.
She comes across as too calculating, too scripted, too political, not inspirational, etc.–I can’t help but wonder “What is the real Hillary like? What does she really want? What motivates her?” I don’t trust that I’m seeing the real Hillary when I hear her speak. I understand why she needs to be very careful with what she says–anything that she says will be twisted by the opposition, but that interfers with the voters being able to see/experience her real self, and voters want to feel a positive connection of some kind with the person they are going to choose.
The fact that she came to Tucson for closed meeting with just relatively large donors feeds my negative perception of her.
Is there any hope of having a real race for the Democratic nomination?
October 13th, 2007 at 8:11 am
I’ve at times been critical towards Hillary over the Iraq war and other issues. And there is no question I’d support any of the other leading Democrats over her for the Democratic nomination. But, at the risk of sounding like I’m guilty of ’shameless self-promotion’ as well I’d like those of you with reservations about supporting Hillary to read the post I wrote on
“Why I will vote Democratic for President regardless (of who the nominee is)”
http://tiodt.blogspot.com/2007/10/why-i-will-vote-democratic-for.html
Yesterday Al Gore, who had suppressed his natural progressive tendencies and tried to run to the center during the 1992 campaign(though he had earlier written, ‘Earth in the Balance,’ a very progressive book so people should have known) won the Nobel Peace Prize. Yesterday the New York Times reported that the Hessians from Blackwater took no incoming fire while they killed thirteen Iraqis. And Turkey attacked Kurdish positions just inside Turkey, and the Bush administration is desperately trying to forestall a Turkish entry into the Iraqi war.
There were those on the left who just seven years ago said that a choice between George W. Bush and Al Gore was a choice between ‘tweedle dee and tweedle dum.’ They stayed home. Or they didn’t cast a vote for the President on their ballot. Or they voted for Nader. A few even voted for Bush. And 500 of them, in Florida was all it took to destroy what could have been a bright, progressive future and instead plunge us into the nightmare we find ourselves in today.
I don’t know if anyone here was among those Democrats, and the past is the past and can’t be changed, but we can change the future. Please, if you are among those who did not vote for Al Gore in 2000 or are thinking that there is some (any) Democrat you might not support if they are the nominee, never, never make that kind of mistake again.
Oh, and Gretchen:
The Republicans will bash any Democratic nominee. And you are right, Giuliani is a slimeball. But the way to beat people like that is to hit them back even harder (Bill Clinton knew that, and he never let an attack go by unchallenged.) And its not his three marriages or the fact that Giuliani’s kids won’t talk to him that is his biggest vulnerability. It’s his judgement. His judgement is like Bush’s judgement– he sticks by his friends even to the detriment of the country. Don’t believe me? Google, ‘Alan Placa.’ My answer to the GOP is ‘nominate, Rudy…. please.’
October 14th, 2007 at 1:40 pm
I’ll support strongly whomever the Democrats nominate–no hesitation. I’ve heard good things about Hillary’s work as a senator and I have a good impression of her policywise. I just hope that she becomes confident enough to have unscripted time in front of the voters so that some connection can be felt with her.
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