We’ll have to agree to disagree. CD 7 has a traditionally lower voter turnout than most other districts in Arizona. You can prove this one yourself. Although CD7 and CD8 have the same population (at least as of the time of the census), see how many voters vote in an election in CD8 and note that it is much higher than CD7. Obviously Raul isn’t boosting turnout by any noticable level

Take care.

I can assure you that I did not fail Political Science 101 (smile)…

I agree that Presidential elections raise turnout, I would never claim otherwise,..that is obvious. Your reaction to my statement cannot possibly be anything either sheer 1) ignorance or 2) I touched a nerve with a truth you know all too well. I am betting you are smart and that you believe the latter.

One thing that you disregard in your followup post is the vigorous and loyal support that Congressman Grijalva has in his district. I have seen a lot of political organizations in my time and this one is pretty remarkable. When that machine has a cause and is well oiled, it is pretty damned hard to stop and the support runs very very deep.

No race in his district DOES mean lower turnout than a real race. He collects less in money in those years and generally uses every penny on GOTV. When there is excitement…there is even more GOTV. He HELPS Presidential candidates in his district…believe you me. Any real race that Grijalva will have will drag out not only those interested in the Presidential election but those who are hardworking supporters of Grijalva. These worker folks don’t only vote, they drag voters to the polls. They show up at polling places to sway voters. I have seen it. It is as impressive to Democrats as it is scary as hell to the GOP.

There will indeed be a high voting turnout in District 7 in a Presidential election…it will be even higher if Grijalva has a challenger…especially one that concerns voters enough to send in funds and wage a GOTV war. Not sure that Mr. Chewning will have that effect, but then again, maybe I am wrong. Work hard for him and see if I am right.

By the way, I am indeed an independent…I have never pretended to be otherwise. Independents can lean in any direction they like. I have also never pretended that I was anything but a former republican and someone who could scarcely ever support the party again. The party has clearly changed…but I think I have changed a lot more.

Take care.