Monday, July 30th, 2007...7:28 am
Which One is Porthos?
When I got word about Ann Kirkpatrick’s official entry into the CD 1 Derby, I realized that I hadn’t heard much about the goings on in the district, which, by the way, is the size of Pennsylvania.
(There is some rule out there that says that any mention of CD 1 has to include a citation that it is the size of Pennsylvania.)
Speculation about the Republican candidates has come down to three legislators, one former and two current.
The “smart money” is on Ken Bennett of Prescott. Bennett is a former president of the State Senate, well known in the district and is seen as someone who can both raise money and is familiar with the rigors of campaigning. He seems the “establishment” choice. The opening for other candidates comes because even in the short history of the district, observers can name several “establishment” choices in both party’s primaries that have turned out to be duds when the second Tuesday in September rolled around.
Tom O’Halleran’s name is still being floated. The Sedona Senator is just moderate enough to tick off conservative activists. One observer I talked to thinks that O’Halleran ain’t gonna do it in the end.
The other name that is intriguing is Bill Kopinicki of Safford. When talking about the district, folks seem to forget that it includes areas traditionally considered “Central” or “Southern” Arizona like Pinal, Gila, Graham and Greenlee Counties. Like O’Halleran, Kopinicki is considered more moderate than his fellow legislators. The talk going around the capitol is that Kopinicki is willing to put up $300,000 to $400,000 if he puts his name in. The same talk usually comes with the adendum that he may not be audacious enough to take on establishment pick Bennett.
The question still hanging out there regards the incumbent, Rick Renzi. The question isn’t whether Renzi will resign, but when. He’s been cut off from national fundraising, he’s done hardly any on his own, and rather than defending the guy, State Republican leaders are quiet about him. He may be holding out for some sort of deal with prosecutors, since his seat is the one thing he can use as a bargaining chip.
10 Comments
July 30th, 2007 at 10:58 am
I have no problem with Kirkpatrick, as I don’t know her that well (talked to her once or twice at the leg). However, her announcement, unlike the Simpson’s opening, was a dud.
A milquetoast, non-biting, non-specific campaign simply won’t work in CD-01. We’ll see what happens. It’ll be interesting. But, I will say that is Renzi runs again and we lose again, omg, we suck! That losing Democratic candidate should be exiled to Corsica (or wherever they sent Napolean, haha).
Even an idiot like Dane Cook should be able to win this seat against the radioactive Renzi if he has a “D” by his name.
July 30th, 2007 at 11:22 am
What about Kris Mayeson the R side? The Tribune ran an article that said she was interested. She is from Prescott and probably has some significant cross over appeal. She would just have to get out of a primary.
July 30th, 2007 at 11:54 am
If another conservative gets in this race (there is a rancher named Steve Pearce, who makes Bennett look like a liberal, circulating his name), you’ll see more candidates jump in. With no viable conservative opposition to Bennett, I think the moderates (Mayes, O’Halleran, and Konopnicki) will stay out. Of all of them, Konopnicki has the best shot of beating Bennett in a primary because of his different geography, but Yavapai County (Bennett’s base) has far more Republican primary voters then any other part of the district.
July 30th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
Admittedly I do not live in nor particularly know much about this district, but the conventional wisdom I’ve always heard is that it has a Democratic registration edge, but that the reason the Democrats always lose is because they fail to account that CD-1 Democrats are a mixture of college-town/hippie-town Flagstaff and Sedona progressives, socially conservative and economically moderate rural White Mormons, socially right-leaning and economically left-leaning Tribal and Mexican-American communities, and the great X factor of new-growth residents in Pinal County.
So the question then is: How does Kirkpatrick overcome the perceptions that come with being a pro-choice liberal Flagstaff woman in a district where many of the Democrats (not to mention I’s and R’s) are predisposed against her?
How does she avoid the same mistakes that were made by Flagstaff Democrats in past elections?
Will she write off White and LDS Democrats in the district as past candidates have done and try and win the election by ratcheting up Independent and GOP female crossover, or will she make an attempt at turning out the Democrats in a district where the Democrat has often ignored the Democrats?
Without the earmark-laden support earned from the Tribes by Renzi, will they fall into the Democratic column squarely and neatly, or will an adept Republican be able to use social issues to soften Tribal support for Kirkpatrick?
I suppose that is actually multiple questions. I’d be curious to here what those closer to the race and the district have to say about these and other issues. (Let alone the Democratic primary.)
July 30th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
Ann Kirkpatrick has deep roots in CD1 that reach far beyond Flagstaff.
She grew up in the White Mountains and went to school at the U of A. Her first spoken language was not Apache, but English.
She has experience as a prosecutor and worked for the City of Sedona. She served on the board of a number of organizations in Flagstaff, and her law firm is well known and highly respected in Northern Arizona.
She has many friends in the Native American community, including the Navajo Reservation, where she spent a lot of time as a legislator.
Her opening announcement was just the first shot over the bow from a lawmaker who until recently focused most of her energy, and her attenion, on her obligations in the House. She was a Floor Leader for House Democrats, and she played an important role in getting the Republicans - finally - to abandon the “gag rule” that kept working parents from learning through the schools whether their children were eligible for the KidsCare program.
You will hear more from Ann Kirkpatrick in the near future, and I don’t think she’ll be writing off anyone.
And any person who tries to pigeon-hole Kirkpatrick as a Flagstaff Progressive just ain’t paying attention.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:41 pm
phoenix democrat:
I’m one of those LDS Democrats in the district (a friend of mine described being LDS and Democrat as like a recessive gene– it tends to run in families but sometimes it pops up where least expected.) True that most LDS are reliably Republican (and at least two of the three legislators Ted mentioned are LDS– I don’t know about O’Halleran) but there are some who will give an ear to a Democrat, the hard part is figuring out who they are and going and talking to them.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:43 pm
Also, Sonoran Sam only tangentially mentions that she now represents the entire Navajo reservation in the legislature. To do that, she had to win their votes, since the reservation outvotes Flagstaff.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:45 pm
Breaking news:
The list of Republicans who have been raided by the FBI in a corruption investigation but who are still in Congress just grew by one:
FBI raids Ted Stevens’ home
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — Agents from the FBI and Internal Revenue Service on Monday searched the home of U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens, an official said.
Investigators arrived at the Republican senator’s home in Girdwood shortly before 2:30 p.m. Alaska time, said Dave Heller, FBI assistant special agent.
Heller said he could not comment on the nature of the investigation.
The Justice Department has been looking into the seven-term senator’s relationship with a wealthy contractor as part of a public corruption investigation.
Dang, it looks like they may have to let Duke Cunningham and Bob Ney out early so they will have room in prison for Rick Renzi, John Doolittle and Ted Stevens.
July 30th, 2007 at 8:18 pm
So far the list of announced Dems is absolutely weak. If Kirkapatrick goes up against more experienced and capable GOP legislators like O’Halleran, Koponiki and Bennett, she’s going to get her clock cleaned and again the district stays in the GOP column when it should be blue.
It looks the Dems are going to blow it yet again in CD1.
…what the hell is Steve Owens going to do.
August 1st, 2007 at 1:12 pm
All of the above comments should be edited to insert the following parenthetical after CD1 : (which is the size of Pennsylvania)
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