Thursday, July 26th, 2007...8:25 am
The Buzz
Well, the new rumor being circulated is that Tim Bee is so intimidated by the piles of cash that Gabrielle Giffords has raised that he is reconsidering the race and may instead run for County Supervisor.
I don’t buy it. The field has been cleared for him, and all indications are that this will be a top targeted race. This means that Bee can count on national money and support which would give him, at the least, some level of parity with Giffords. Since he has no visible primary opponent, he can even put off raising money until early next year, obviating any need to resign his office.
That is…unless…
Unless somebody actually declares against him in the primary. The word is that there are conservative activists who are tweaked about Bee’s cooperation with the Governor on the budget. He’s still pretty conservative, it’s just that he actually was interested in governing. Apparently, this is a crime against the legacy of Ronald Reagan and he must be stopped.
Even if it can’t prevent him from getting nominated, a decent opponent could force him to resign early to concentrate on fundraising. This would take him out of the legislature and they could get Senate leadership more to their liking.
That’s where Wayne Peate comes in. Dr. Peate had talked about running for congress before, but bowed out. This time, his name was brought up again by some conservative activists, including a fellow named Chris Baker. Baker is affiliated with the Club for Growth, an ally of RINO hunter Constantine Querard and worked the campaigns of Trent Franks, Sydney Hay and Randy Pullen. Both Baker and Querard are well known for supporting activist conservatives against more pragmatic (though not necessarily less conservative) establishment candidates. Perhaps Baker thought he’d have another head on the wall here.
Peate’s candidacy was quashed when local Republican pooh bahs let him know that they had picked their guy. Whether this means that the cranky wing of our local conservative establishment will look elsewhere or swing totally behind Bee is yet to be seen.
One interesting side note here is where Jim Weiers is in this whole thing. Weiers wasn’t exactly ecstatic that Bee didn’t support his budget, and couldn’t have been too happy about the press orgy that was thrown for Bee after the budget, largely written by the Governor and the Senate, passed. One Republican observer told me that Weiers is involved in looking for a candidate because he wants to force Bee out before his term is up, both punishing Bee and leaving Weiers a freer hand in the next session. Another Republican, one close to Weiers, told me that that is a load of hooey, and that Bee and Weiers are great pals. I don’t quite buy the great pals thing, but it would be crazy for Weiers to weigh in on the race. Weiers has already ticked off the Republican establishment in Southern Arizona over the Employer Sanctions Bill (Republican stalwart and key Bee backer Jim Click has all but vowed to take Weiers out), why antagonize them more by poking around in their hive?
NB - I put in the apian puns as a service to you, my reading public. I’ve got plenty more of them.
52 Comments
July 26th, 2007 at 8:36 am
Thanks, Honey.
July 26th, 2007 at 8:54 am
Tedksi,
If you’ve had conversations with both Gabby & Tim, you know that Tim is the real deal and Gabby is a light-weight.
Tim is a conservative that can work with people on both sides of the aisle to accomplish what is best for all Arizonans. Aren’t we all ready to have politicians that can work together even if they disagree?
I’ve spoken to many moderate Dems that realize Gabby is just a Pelosi stooge and will support a Tim Bee caliber candidate. They were Kolbe fans, but jumped to Gabby because Graff was too gruff. They will jump back to a great candidate like Tim Bee…if he chooses to run. My money is on Tim running for CD8.
All the best,
ThinkRight
July 26th, 2007 at 9:52 am
ThinkRight,
I can’t speak for Tedski, I’ve had conversations with both Bee and Giffords. Neither qualifies as a “light-weight”.
As for accusations of being a “Pelosi-clone”, Giffords is among those who have voted least in line with the party positions (Mitchell is in that group too).
Bee is an excellent candidate, and I don’t believe he intends to run for anything other than CD 8 Rep. However, if you think it’s going to be a walk-in-the-park for Bee (or Giffords for that matter) and voters will simply flock to him, especially if the current national political environment remains roughly unchanged … well … you just keep deluding yourself.
July 26th, 2007 at 10:18 am
Actually Sirocco, you can keep deluding yourself. You said that Gabby is one of those who has not been in lock-step with Pelosi when it is exactly the oppposite.
In fact, Gabby has voted along the party-line with Pelosi 96% of the time. That’s not a figure I’ve gotten from the RNC or GOP either. That’s from the Daily Star. Just take a look at this article: http://www.azstarnet.com/dailystar/184496
“Chief among the Republicans’ complaints is Giffords has voted the same way as Pelosi “96 percent” of the time since being sworn in. An Arizona Daily Star review of their voting records confirms of the 69 votes the two have both voted on, Giffords and Pelosi disagreed on just three, verifying the 96 percent figure.”
So yes, Gabby is a clone of Pelosi.
July 26th, 2007 at 10:28 am
I don’t think it’ll be a walk in the park for Tim.
You are correct about the climate (that is the Republicans own fault). But he is a candidate of substance and Gabby IS a Pelosi clone - she votes with Pelosi every time the vote is crucial. Gabby is closer to a Raul Grijalva than a moderate or a “blue dog”.
CD8 is a Republican district (my opinion a moderate Republican district) that will come back if the Republicans put up a good candidate.
I can’t wait to see the Gabby-Tim debates. He is brilliant & she’ll have to think on her own. You must agree that Tim will win the debates handily. I suspect she’ll avoid debating him at all costs.
I’m involved in the business community and her vote to raise taxes will come back to bite her. She does have a lot of cash. But Tim will raise big money as well.
Tim has shown himself to be able to work with people for the greater good. I think that is what the people want. They are sick and tired of people playing politics (like Pelosi) and they want statesmen like Tim Bee that will work to get things accomplished.
It’ll be fun.
July 26th, 2007 at 10:35 am
Ahhh … but I was using a different (and more recent) set of figures. It has Giffords as 27th most likely to vote _against_ party line. Mitchell is 18th. The source for these figures is also something other than complaingint Republicans (who, one must admit, have something of a conflict of interest in throwing such figures around).
Feel free to try again though.
July 26th, 2007 at 10:45 am
Sirocco,
Her record is her record, she does vote with Pelosi every time it is crucial. She can say she is a moderate all she wants, but her record says she is a Pelosi stooge.
As Kelso would say … “burn!”.
Anyway, back to work, Have a great day. It is still too early in this to get completely worked up.
TR
July 26th, 2007 at 10:46 am
ThinkRight,
I share the opinion Bee is a better debator. I think he expresses himself in public better, and that is certainly will help him. Of course, that doesn’t make him more correct … just better able to express incorrect views.
Giffords and Grijalva have differing viewpoints on a number of issues, most significantly on how hard to press for a withdrawal from Iraq. Immigration as well. She is considerably more moderate than he is … although, frankly, that’s not hard to do. Grijalva is admittedly pretty far left.
People may be sick and tired of “playing politics” .. but they are sicker of Republicans (jump to tables 12 and 13 to compare).
July 26th, 2007 at 10:47 am
ThinkRight,
Yelling fire when … well … no fire exists doesn’t equate to anything burning, Keslo or no.
Enjoy your morning.
July 26th, 2007 at 10:51 am
Comrade Ted,
You may get your wish and get your “girlfriend” back home again. Gabby ‘Pelosi’ lied to CD-8 when she said she was “moderate”. She has been nothng but a stooge of the Pelosi, Reid, Kennedy part of the democrat party. Tim Bee will have no problem raising cash, once he decides to join the race.
I like TR’s use of the ‘CLONE’ word. It fits.
July 26th, 2007 at 10:54 am
the reference to “burn!’ was Kelso from “That 70’s Show” My teenage son loves it. Only intent was humor.
TONY GOPrano, long time. I heard you came up with the term clone with reference to the AZ GOP & the Clone blogs…
July 26th, 2007 at 11:39 am
Ted,
Excellent reporting. You have all the details that I could not print.
FYI - Bee has the backing of Southern Arizona knuckle dragging, far right conservatives (like me.) Chris Baker would waste a lot of money if he works against his natural allies down here. Anyone entering the primary against Tim would be wasting his/her time.
July 26th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
A Democratic representative voting with her party’s leadership most of the time is not stunning news, nor does it represent some betrayal of Gabby’s campaign pledges. My one and only concern is that she votes in the best interest of CD8, which she has absolutely done. It is no surprise that our Republican friends disagree, but calling her a “Pelosi clone” is as disingenuous as calling Republicans “Boehner clones.” Mike Bryan and some of the other lefties in CD8 would tell you that they are not entirely happy with Gabby, by the way, so I am delighted to see her catching flak from the extreme ends of the political spectrum. That tells me that she is a centrist. Last, anyone who has been paying attention also knows that Gabby has been careful to maintain the high levels of constituent service that Kolbe was known for over the years, which has also helped her reputation with voters of all stripes.
By the way, I read on one of the conservative blogs some time ago that Peate is NOT running. Bee has a clear field if he wants it. If he backs out, then he may have the same effect on the GOP as Steve Leal did on the Democrats when he chose to not run for Tucson mayor very late in the game.
Tim Bee is a consummate gentleman who has done a stellar job of leading a diverse and fractious GOP Senate caucus. He will be a formidable opponent for Gabby due to his record and the good name both he and his brother have throughout Eastern Pima and Cochise Counties. To describe him as a moderate, however, is to ignore his record. Bee may part company with many other Republicans in Phoenix when it comes to supporting public schools and kids, but he is a down the line conservative in most other respects.
Giffords will be re-elected, but it will be by a narrower margin than in 2006.
July 26th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
I don’t buy a huge rift between Bee and Weiers. Jim is a smart guy and I doubt he would pick that tough of a fight, particularly with the backlash over the Employee Sanctions bill. I bet Weiers has a GOP primary for sure and TWO SOLID Democratic candidates known for their intelligence and good looks. At least that was what sources were telling me.
July 26th, 2007 at 1:26 pm
These ThinkRight and Tony Soprano characters are nothing but Republican talking-point press release shills for Bee.
I wonder what factory they get their batteries from, because they seem to have limitless energy to spout the party-line. Not that it takes brains or talent or creativity to run your mouth like a Neanderthal.
Note that I haven’t spouted any Democratic line here because I think for myself, unlike today’s Republic Party drones.
July 26th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
Actually Netroots, you are spouting Democratic Party Line. I’ve lost count how many times Dems have told me that because I’m a Republican, I can’t think for myself.
But thanks for playing.
July 26th, 2007 at 2:34 pm
Ted, I talked to Dr Peate after reading about his potential candidacy last week. He said it was not true that he had thought about running for CD-8 in ‘08. (Others may have mentioned his name, but it appears that they did so without his backing.) I’m glad he is not running, so he can focus on the unpaid job he has now: President of the JTED school board. L0sing his leadership at such an early juncture would be a blow to the fledgling district.
As for some accusing Giffords of lying when running for the seat she now holds, I find that laughable…….. there are folks that are peeved at her (note the number of folks at Drinking Liberally a few weeks ago that grilled her on Iraq) NOT keeping her word when she said she did NOT support immediate withdrawal of troops. Gabby has been pretty good for CD-8.
Bee faces a tough road raising cash, and may not want to work that hard, especially if there are those on the far right that want to target him. Bee may also bee (pun intended) worried about leaving the senate in the hands of the wackos. I believe that Bee does care about this state and would hate to see a Weier clone/wannabee end up dragging down the state.
July 26th, 2007 at 2:37 pm
netrotsdemocrat (had fun with that one)
Although I’m a Republican activist (haven’t hidden that fact), check out my blog, I’m not towing the Party line.
but thanks for throwing me in with Tony, he is a good guy that also doesn’t tow the party line.
I am a fan of Tim Bee and he has worked well with both parties in PHX. and Gabby has worked with one party in DC - the Pelosi Party…(knew that’d get you)
July 26th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
AZW88,
Interesting on WP. It was widely understood that he was considering.
Gabby “pretty good” for CD8…minimum wage increase, voted for a huge tax hike? She has attempted the earmarks, but not much in the way of results so far. AND her party is in control of the Congress???
Tedski may be right that some Repubs want Bee to resign to run so that they can get a hardliner in to fight with Gov Janet. Bee understands how important his work as Senate Prez is for Southern AZ. With demographics how they are now (Phx #5 city in the US & Tucson #32…Pima will lose influence at the state level down the road). So Tim Bee has lots of work to accomplish for all of us in Southern AZ.
July 26th, 2007 at 4:33 pm
Netrootsdem says: “These ThinkRight and Tony Soprano characters are nothing but Republican talking-point press release shills for Bee.
I wonder what factory they get their batteries from, because they seem to have limitless energy to spout the party-line. Not that it takes brains or talent or creativity to run your mouth like a Neanderthal.
Note that I haven’t spouted any Democratic line here because I think for myself, unlike today’s Republic Party drones.”
WOW! TR & I Republican Shills? You hear that Snoring Alliance & the “Clone” Blogs! It was said here. Must be the truth!
July 26th, 2007 at 6:31 pm
The Republicans have no better than Tim Bee to take on the one term Democratic CD8 incumbent in 2008. Bee is absolutely their best choice, and their only real hope of taking back the House seat. He will easily get the majority of votes in LD 30 where a lot of Independents and Democrats have already voted for him in multiple state elections. He needs a lot of money which he can probably get. If voters decide to “throw the bums out” again in 2008, Bee will not be adversely affected because he is not one of the bums.
However, conservative Republicans like knuckle dragging yet articulate “Phx Kid” need to understand that if they force him too far to the right on foreign and domestic policy, he doesn’t stand a chance. You guys are going to have to suck up some moderate positions and give the man some latitude while supporting him 100%.
Otherwise, he can’t win.
July 26th, 2007 at 8:11 pm
Wow. I sure missed a party. I question your sources, Tedski, but know you are good.
Bee’s turning at this point is Leal’s turn from Mayor times 1000 and a GOP meltdown. Carroll is out. Paton is out. Peate is out. If Bee is not it, the G magic continues. She will face someone who stands no chance.
Bee terms out. Staying in the senate is not an option. Going for governor makes a lot of sense, but he might have figured this out a few months ago and green lighted Paton for CD 8. A little late for that now.
July 26th, 2007 at 8:17 pm
There’s nothing like a good Pelosi Puppet posting to get the people fired up.
I would not call her centrist at all. Just a bad legislator who votes by trying to stay safe in her district rather than by conscience (which I am doubting all the time she might have.)
This country is sorely in need of leadership and Pelosi’s Puppet isn’t up to the challenge.
July 26th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
I agree with x4mr except for the part about the “G magic.” Let’s just say that if Bee isn’t it, there is no one else and the incumbent will win.
July 26th, 2007 at 9:16 pm
Bee is it… ’nuff said.
July 26th, 2007 at 9:50 pm
You know how I know my favorite candidate will win? Because I can talk of them in the most glowing terms while at the same time ridicule the opposing candidate and their party. My candidate is so good at everything, it’s unbelievable. The opposing candidate, however, is so bad at everything, they can’t possibly win. I believe so strongly in my candidate, that just wishing it to be so, and posting on blogs that disagree with my point of view, will help them win in November.
Onward, keyboard warriors, to victory.
July 26th, 2007 at 10:42 pm
Liza,
Thanks for recognizing that knuckle draggers can also be articulate. (I should try out for a part on the new Caveman TV series.)
I am not forcing Tim Bee anywhere. He’ll do fine just the way he is. He is a good match with CD-8 and will give Gabby a run for her money.
July 27th, 2007 at 12:25 pm
Paton does not have the smarts to win a race against Giffords. I used to work at the Capitol and all I can say is he isn’t the brightest bulb in the box. Quite stupid, in fact.
I doubt Paton has the brain-power to understand the international and even national issues that he’d have to if elected. But, I guess that sits well with these fat malordorous GOP brownshirt Karl Rove drones.
July 27th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
You mean that you don’t see an increase in the minimum wage as good for the folks of Southern Arizona??? Sorry, but the working folks think that it is damned time that the minimum wage was raised. Maybe some of the core Republican constituency, mainly business men, don’t like to actually have to PAY people a decent amount. Tax increases? On the wealthy? sheez, GW and friends have given away the farm to the wealthiest folks in the country. Besides, with billions and billions of $$ being thrown away month after month in Iraq, this country will need the $$.
July 27th, 2007 at 3:00 pm
Netroots…
Go to my blog and check out the Karl Rove in Aspen video/interview. He is outstanding. I know you hate his guts, but just listen to him, you may have a life altering experience and see the light.
AZW88, check out Milton Friedman explaining basic economics (about 10 minutes in he explains the minimum wage) I just posted a youtube video on my blog on him.
How many people do you know that work minimum wage to raise a household/family?
The market will determine an employee’s worth and minimum wage jobs are for those getting skills to get into the workforce (college or other vocational training) or those getting out of the workforce (retired that want to stay busy). It is a fallacy that those working the minimum wage take those jobs as a career. They must improve their skills to improve their marketability. The minimum wage is a wage that the employee is worth & it is government forced charity for the additional amount.
Those tax increases will hurt an economy that is near full employment with about a 14,00 dow (a few days ago it was - the market is concerned about the Dems winning & screwing with the economy & the current mortgage/housing market).
Check to see who is targeted to be “wealthy” by those tax increases…it isn’t what you expect.
I agree that the GWB era spending is obscene…that is one of the reasons that the 2006 elections were terrible for the GOP.
July 27th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
ThinkRight,
I was one of you. I was Pat Buchanan’s 1996 Yuma County Chm.
I was a supporter of Trent Franks v. Shadegg in the primary of 1994. I know them (he and his wife, Josie). I am a personal friend of Senator Karen Johnson (whom I adore because she at least has a moral compass and is uncorruptable). But my conscience got to me. I voted for Gore in 2000 and haven’t looked back. Whilst I appreciate Johnson’s stance on be anti-tort “reform” and he stance on supposedly “free” trade, I am polar opposite her on every issue under the sun.
For instance, my fave Senators are Boxer and Sanders. Fave House member is Grijalva (Si se puede!!!).
My person for 2008 is Edwards. ThinkRight, dude, I know the pablum that will come out of yuor mouth on EVERY issue because, dude, I HAVE BEEN THERE.
July 27th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Netroots, I have a hard time understanding how it is that Paton is so stupid. He speaks three languages, graduated suma cum laude and with honors from the UA and the University of Munich. He’s also an intelligence officer for the Army and was soldier of the year for an entire division. He’s a lot of things, but stupid is not one of them. It sounds like you just don’t like him. I’m sure there are democrats like you who don’t like him but I doubt any of them would claim he was stupid (just the contrary).
July 27th, 2007 at 3:58 pm
I was never with good ‘ole Pat Buchanan. I did enjoy his Crossfire show on CNN a long time ago…when was that?
In 1992, PB might have still been a Republican. If I remember correctly he ran in the Republican primary against GHWB. But he jumped the shark by the time you volunteered for him. He changed in 1996 to Indy or Libertarian.
Jumping from Pat to hair (opps) I mean Edwards is interesting. [I have great hair myself, so I understand John.] His “two Americas” may or may not exist. But he lives very, very, very well in one of those Americas. To each his own.
I voted against Boxer (lived in Sonoma County).
Interesting. It may not be much of a jump from PB (he wasn’t a Republican or a Conservative in 1996) to Edwards (he is desperate to stay in the race, trying anything). You seem to support marginal candidates (PB & JE). I don’t think that the “THERE” you’re referring to is what you think it is. I’ve never been a PB fan…he’s been way, way out “THERE” in la la land.
Politicians as a whole (all parties) have issues with moral compasses. No party has the monopoly on that.
Have a great weekend…
[been on 5 phone calls while responding, I apologize if I’ve jumped around a bit]
July 27th, 2007 at 8:10 pm
Netroots,
I hope you are not lumping the far right, knuckle dragging troglodytes in with the “fat malordorous … brownshirts.” I would be deeply offended if you were.
FYI - I believe the correct spelling in malodorous.
Re: Paton. I have not seen his IQ results but whatever his score he is certainly shrewd. He reaches out to and listens to different people. You may have been thrown off by his low-key demeanor. Maybe he should use more big words that he cannot even spell.
July 27th, 2007 at 9:07 pm
PhxKid,
If you go around correcting people’s spelling on websites - when they are typing fast - then you truly are as pathetic as your Party is these days.
July 27th, 2007 at 9:17 pm
Netroots,
Was the poor punctuation also a result of typing too fast?
There is a heavy burden indeed when calling a tri-linguist stupid. I am afraid that you set your own trap on that one.
July 27th, 2007 at 9:32 pm
[…] and sometimes you cannot. Sometimes a person with whom you have never spoken or corresponded can publish the information that you […]
July 27th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
Paton is cool. Get off his case. I like the guy despite the differences in our views…although I think he engaged in some shameless grandstanding (as did John Allen) over the Huerta speech at Tucson High…but who among us is perfect?
In fact, most people who like politics are good folk to hang with, banter with and share a brew, primarily because politics is all about people and their interests, passions and needs. It’s actually more fun, in my humble view, to debate and drink with those who differ from you than have a nodfest with all those who share your opinions.
I would be happy to do shots with Phx Kid, Think Right, Billy Barue and Jonathan Paton any day of the week. I’d even let them pick up the tab…
July 28th, 2007 at 4:17 am
Giffords will win this race in 2008…again. As great a candidate as Tim Bee is, it will have no bearing on his ability to upset an incumbent. On average, and in normal political years, 95% of Congressional incumbents win re-election. They have the ability to credit claim, do constituent service, and name recognition and fundraising is a major benefit…typically.
To be one of the 5%, the Bee spin machiners know that they have to portray Giffords as being out of touch with her district and that she has a string of very salient bad votes. They also need money to come close to matching her. They need an excited base with an excellent campaign that works to defeat a poorly liked incumbent. They also need the winds of change a blowin in their direction.
I don’t think that portraying Giffords as a Pelosi clone will be enough to satisfy this “string of bad” votes scenario. It is pretty clear that Republicans are dusting off the Kolbe-McNulty playbook in hopes that it will work. We shall see if it does. Most people, other than the Republican base and some angry about the war, could care one bit about Pelosi one way or the other. It might electrify your base, but one do diddly with the average voter. You need big bad major ugly votes…none of these touch it.
Bee has the ability to credit claim also…support for downtown redevelopment tax increase, an additional appropriation to the UA-South in Sierra Vista, etc. Does that stack up to what a Congresswoman can deliver who is also sitting on the armed services committee? Can he possibly serve and be in touch with his constituency in the same way that Giffords can as a sitting Congresswoman? History tells us that that is an emphatic no.
On fundraising, she has a million already, an organization established, and a very deep base of support from her last impressive campaign. Bee has to build a campaign and raise funds to meet her. He doesn’t need the same amount or more, but has to come fairly close. He is behind massively and at a time when Republican donations in the state and nation are down.
Finally, the political winds of the day. To be one of the 5% he will need help. Nationally, right now, people dont want Republicans in control. Independents are voting Democrat and donating that way. The republican fundraising and voting base is not as excited or active as is the Democrat base. Fundraising is down at the most Republican campaign committees and statewide. They will have more seats nationally to protect this time…in the Senate…and will have some to protect in the house as national trends continue to take a bite. They just wont have the same kind of money to run the same kind of campaigns of the past.
Of any candidate, Bee has the best chance to be one of the 5%. I dont think he can make it and I think his advisors on this race are not telling him the full truth about his chances.
July 28th, 2007 at 4:29 am
To those that say Bee is a mainline conservative…well…you are more than right. His endorsements and ratings from interest groups on Project Vote Smart back it and how. This has to be why some of the conservatives here are so giddy about his candidacy, even though they will try to portray him as moderate.
http://www.vote-smart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=28381
A summary. On abortion rights:
2006 Senator Bee supported the interests of the Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona 0 percent in 2006.
2006 Based on voting records and other information available in 2006, Arizona Right to Life PAC decided to endorse Senator Bee.
2005 Senator Bee supported the interests of the Arizona Right to Life PAC 100 percent in 2005.
On Civil Rights:
2006 Senator Bee supported the interests of the Arizona Human Rights Fund 0 percent in 2006.
On Education:
2006 Senator Bee supported the interests of the Arizona Education Association 25 percent in 2006.
2005 Senator Bee supported the interests of the Arizona Education Association 43 percent in 2005.
On the Environment and Conservation:
2006 Senator Bee supported the interests of the Arizona League of Conservation Voters 35 percent in 2006.
2006 In 2006 Sierra Club, Grand Canyon Chapter gave Senator Bee a rating of F.
2005 Senator Bee supported the interests of the Arizona League of Conservation Voters 62 percent in 2005.
2005 Senator Bee supported the interests of the Sierra Club, Grand Canyon Chapter 0 percent in 2005.
July 28th, 2007 at 7:40 am
Kral,
You have such a strange series of algorithms of how this race will play out, but you don’t have an answer to the most important ones. Name i.d. and registration advantage. Gabby will never have that. Look Bee up on the sec. of state website. I don’t think there is any senator in the state who got as many votes as he did in this last election cycle or one before. Was it because his opponent was a moron? Certainly, but it was also because people (primarily Republicans) have been pulling the lever for a Bee for the last two decades and they are going to keep doing it. They know the name. They like it. They’re going to keep doing it. Randy Graf did not have that.
You tend to forget the one important problem with your own base: we are still at war. They had been promised the Giffords of the world would end the war. That hasn’t happened. Congress’ approval ratings are down below the president’s because of this very reason. The disenchanted of your party and the independents aren’t going to suddenly vote Republican–they just won’t vote. You hear it on this blog all the time: Gabby is squishy on the war. The war is splitting your party into crazy and “crazier”.
The squishy argument goes to a big problem Gabby has that rubs people the wrong way: she doesn’t like taking stands on things. In fact, she hates it. She doesn’t even want to tell her constituents what she’s asking money for, for chrissakes. (Note to Gabby: if you think asking Congress for a missile is going to score points with your airmen and soldiers while you oppose the war–think again.)
Campaign money is a fair point, but if Republicans at the national level think this race is worth it, I think they will pour money into it. That will more than make up for what he has gained in good publicity over the last year as senate president.
She is an incumbant–but so is Bee. He has been bringing home the bacon for a long freaking time. She hasn’t brought home, well… anything yet.
National factors–that is a fair point. People don’t like Hillary and except for the inhabitants of Crazytown on this blog (netroots guy, we’re looking your way: the “Hillary Deathstar” will still be operational when your friends arrive) everyone recognizes that Hillary will be your nominee. Republican women definitely don’t like Hillary. Gabby has to get Republican women to defect against their own candidates on things like abortion. It’s going to be that much harder if Hillary is on the ballot. George Bush ain’t gonna be on the ballot–as much as you people wish he were.
It’s interesting that you mention that project vote smart thing. The same works in the reverse. It will show she is liberal. So what’s worse in a Republican district — to be seen as a conservative or a liberal (especially a rhetoric moderate with a functionally liberal voting record)?
Registration advantage, Bee’s own power of incumbancy, a presidential candidate on the Dem side with high negatives and a dem congressional candidiate who won’t take a stand on anything. Not good, Kral, not good…
July 28th, 2007 at 7:57 am
Billy,
You voice some valid concerns, but …
1. Bee certainly will not have more name recognition than Giffords entering the 2009 race. To argue otherwise is laughable.
2. There is a voter registration edge for Republicans in the district, and that certainly favors Bee. In the greater scheme of things it’s relatively small, however, and Giffords doesn’t require much of an advantage in indy-voter break to over come it.
3. You are correct failure to act on the war is hurting Dems in Congress, Giffords included. It’s worth noting, Dems still score considerably higher than Reps. Your “they just won’t vote” argument might be correct in an mid-term year, but with next year being seen as an pivotal vote in plotting the future course f our country, that’s not going to happen — voters of all stripes are going to turn out and vote.
July 28th, 2007 at 9:15 am
Well said Sirocco.
The name recognition advantage goes squarely with Giffords. She doesn’t have to win Green Valley to win, she need only split it and she will. She also doesn’t have to win Cochise outright, but she will do well enough because of her constant visits and what she is starting do deliver with the Democrats that a Republican cannot (money for the bases and defense industry…and environmental protection of the area).
Billy, your points are good, but are much more spin than mine. I did fail to mention the registration advantage. However, you assume a few things that are going to really work against Mr. Bee (none of which are his fault). Independents are an enormous part of that breakdown now. I pay very close attention to polls (like you) and the advantage of Dems with Independents is enormous. Whomever pulls their base and the independents will win out.
I also think the Republican base is just plain too angry in this district. He is going to have to ignore them or hope they will go with him, but at the same time deal with the fact that moderate Republicans really warmed up to Giffords. Bee will get a lot more of them that Graf, no doubt, but many are disaffected with the Republican party and are quite angry at the fact that the “base” has mucked up a number of elections. (Melvin, Graf, Pullen, etc).
Finally, you Thinkright mentions business as if it is a monolith…and that Giffords will lose it completely. A BIG assumption that all the spin in the world will not cure. Giffords does very well with business. She, again, does not have to win it all to win the election. Looking at her contributors, it seems that a sizeable proportion of business folk are fairly happy with her so far.
Last, you mention the anger about the war from the left. I think you are right about the anger there at dems for not being able to do much or more. Liza, George, and others make these points well. Respectfully, most everyone on the left knows well that the reason nothing has happened on Iraq is that Republicans block bills and vote in lock step in favor of the war….for now. And the President has the veto pen.
I think MOST in the base of Democrats know where the problem lies the most and that keeping control of Congress and expanding it…and winning the Presidency is the most important factor of all.
July 28th, 2007 at 9:22 am
How many on the left or middle will support Tim Bee when they learn that he has a very poor record on the environment, on education spending, on womens issues, and on abortion? What makes him appeal to the base of the Republican party is what will make people write more checks to Giffords and volunteer to keep her in office.
In fact, all this buzz about a tough challenge has done more, I would argue, to help her fundraising than about anything.
Difference of opinion I know…but Giffords will win. It will be a shame for Bee too. Look at those who faced Kolbe. Few, if any, ever made it into the spotlight again. It is very very hard to come back, with your base, if you lose this kind of election.
My opinion, but his advisors are clearly making this race look like it is a snowcone on a hot summer day. It is anything but. It is a big bet on his political career…and history tells us his chances are quite slim to be among the 5%.
July 28th, 2007 at 9:55 am
Bee WILL solidify the GOP in a way Graf couldn’t do. The same would have held true for Huffman, by the way, albeit for other reasons. To promote unity, the GOP would have been better off going with Mike Hellon! Giffords WILL hold on to most Democrats. As Kral and Sirocco point out, the independents will swing this race (again!) and their preference will be affected by 1.) how they view the two candidates and 2.) the national mood, especially with regard to Iraq.
If the war in Iraq continues on its current course and the GOP presidential nominee is unwilling to speak the truth about what Bush has created there and what he would do differently, independents will vote Democratic by large margins…provided that the Democratic presidential nominee reassures them that he/she will deal effectively with national security, terrorism and related issues. I hope Democrats keep that in mind. It IS our Achilles’ heel.
It is too early to talk about any nominee, including Hillary, having a positive or negative effect on races below theirs on the ballot. That sort of dynamic becomes more clear when the race comes down to two people. I do agree, however, that Hillary’s high negatives with certain segments of the electorate make it prudent to look elsewhere for a nominee. She is NOT my choice for that reason and others. Biden, Obama and Richardson (in that order) would be my preferred choices. Edwards is starting to resemble McCain as he seems willing to say or do anything to get votes.
If folks like Billy look at the prevailing patterns of thought among independents, the “progress” of the war in Iraq and the way voters feel about it, coupled with the impeartive the GOP nominee will face to cater to the Right, they should be much more worried than Democrats, including in CD8.
Gabrielle Giffords is a strong incumbent for all these reasons, but also because of her voting record, her fundraising, her constituent service and (as she proved in 2006) the fact that no one works harder during a campaign. She will prevail by four or five points.
July 28th, 2007 at 3:21 pm
Ted,
Believe it or not, I really have no interest in the AZ-08 race, though your characterization that I somehow was working behind the scenes to affect the outcome is flattering, it’s not true. Both Bee and Peate would make great candidates. However, this race is Bee’s to lose. I support his candidacy 100 percent.
Chris
July 28th, 2007 at 11:32 pm
Wow, you mean Tedski didn’t contact Chris Baker directly to find out what was going on? He just printed rumors without doing any fact checking first?
I’m shocked… SHOCKED!
July 29th, 2007 at 9:12 am
Chris does not seem to break a sweat returning calls so it might not be Tedski’s fault.
July 29th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
I’m late coming in on this thread, which has been interesting despite some redundancy. Let me add just one small thought regarding a Giffords-Bee contest in CD-8.
Many good points have been made on each side, but one I do not believe makes sense is that Sen. Bee will come anywhere near winning back the “moderate” Republicans which Graf cost the party in 2006. To the contrary, I think a lot them may be gone from party loyalty generally and for good, a situation which the Arizona Republican strategy on the border, privacy, and the environment is making worse. Those Republicans FOUGHT Graf, if they hadn’t already gone to Giffords, in the primary and the altogether in the general election. They sought out meetings with Giffords, attended her events, introduced her to their friends and neighbors, and they gave her money. They know her now, she’s kept up communications and contacts, and they are giving her money again. Her votes on defense and the farm bill are have been acceptable to Republicans in Sierra Vista and Douglas, and one Republican Cochise Co. supervisor told me he personally was finding it fine working with GG.
In reverse this is what Kolbe did to McNulty, or maybe what McNulty did wrong; but anyone who thinks there is any deep sentiment to throw Giffords out is dreaming. Contrary general opinion here, and with nothing much against Tim Bee, I don’t think the race will even be close.
July 29th, 2007 at 9:08 pm
Very well said, Randall. What you state about moderate Republicans and her support is what I have seen and what has been my experience.
July 30th, 2007 at 7:29 am
Then it’s a done deal. Giffords wins. Tim Bee, you heard it here on Tedski’s blog. Give it up. Find another playground. Over and out.
July 31st, 2007 at 3:03 am
If by 2008, little has improved with regards to the Iraq war, I think it’s the Republicans who will take the hit–including the Republican running against Gabby.
The increasing number of dead, maimed, mentally-disabled (PTSS) U.S. soldiers; the worsening disintegration of Iraq; the abominable corruption/waste of billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars; the weakening of our military; etc.–responsibility for which should be placed majorly on the Bush administration’s arrogance, ignorance and incompetence in executing this war and the Republican leadership for failing to conduct proper oversight. The situation is so dire that the U.S. is screwed if we stayed and screwed if we leave. The price for getting rid of Saddam is already too high and we will continue to pay this price for a long time. A catastrophic mistake.
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