Tuesday, July 17th, 2007...6:59 am
Neanderthal Takes On His Party’s Cro-Magnon Wing
Russell Pearce is, once again, mulling a challenge against Jeff Flake. Some of you may remember that he publicly toyed with doing this (and a race for governor) in the past. This time though, he is term-limited and has to go up or out. This circumstance coupled with Flake’s more high profile endorsement of pro-immigration measures (he has lined up with Raúl Grijalva on the STRIVE Act) has made Pearce think that this is his time.
Pearce may be fooling himself here though. Despite the hammering he gets from the press for his embarasing public statements, he has gotten a free pass from his fellow legislators and the buisiness groups who endorse and fund his campaigns. Can his actions (and resume) withstand the scrutiny of a higher profile campaign? He has a crew of supporters who he can call on when it is time to punish legislators who cross him, but does this necessarily translate into an unbeatable grassroots campaign?
I’m not too sure it does. Pearce-backed Don Goldwater tried to ride the immigration issue into the Governor’s office, and lost statewide to Len Munsil in the Republican primary. In Maricopa County, where the bulk of Flake’s district is, he lost by 36,000 votes. Pearce himself only narrowly edges out Mark Anderson in his primaries in his district which is much more conservative than the entire congressional district. (By the way, he came in second in the last general election, only edging out Democrat Tammie Pursley by 4.5%)
He may be taking solace from Randy Graf’s effort. Graf, who was endorsed by Pearce and had a similar political profile, won the last CD 8 primary with 42.2% of the vote, beating Steve Huffman by nearly five points. Interestingly, this was about the same percentage that he recieved when he lost one-on-one to Jim Kolbe in the previous election. Kolbe was, like Flake, an incumbent who was fiscally conservative and moderate on enough other issues to irk the far right.
Heck, instead of extrapolating, look what happened with Flake himself in 2004 when he was challenged by Stan Barnes. Barnes took on Flake from the right, but it must be said that Barnes is much more politically savvy and doesn’t have the baggage of Pearce. The result? Flake beat Barnes by nearly 20 points.
The lobbyists, consultants and givers who make up the Republican establishment have been rattling their fists about Pearce and his antics for years. I know this because they are always more than happy to tell Democrats like me about it. Of course, whatever power the guy has is due to their acquiescence, at times even support. Here, it’s going to be different. The guy will be taking on an incumbent congressman who they like. It will take a serious grass roots machine (one that can do more than write ticked off letters to the editor and make threatening calls to legislators) and some serious money. I have my doubts that Pearce has access to either.
NB - Espresso Pundit has his own take on the race here.
6 Comments
July 17th, 2007 at 7:37 am
This is a great opportunity for democrats. Even though the district is clearly a Republican one, a brutal primary fight and the potential of a right winger upset could make a reasonable, moderate Democrat not look too shabby.
Also, what you say about the business wing of the Republican party being unhappy with him has a lot of backing from the recent stories statewide that a group of business leaders (including Jim Click) are going to sue over the employer sanctions bill and that they are considering going after those who were behind the bill in the next campaign.
I am speculating here, but I am guessing that some of these business leaders like Jeff Flake a great deal and won’t have any problems ripping into Pearce for challenging him and for potentially creating an ugly fight for a Democrat to challenge in.
July 17th, 2007 at 10:09 am
This is an opportunity for a moderate Republican. If Flake and Pearce split votes, a third candidate might be able to slip through. I think that’s more probable then a Democrat winning.
July 17th, 2007 at 10:17 am
You fool! Don’t discourage him from running! Pimp Pearce, man, pimp him!
If he runs against Flake and NOT for state legislature, it is a win-win for us on two or more fronts! 1. he is no longer in the legislature. 2. he could possibly bump off Flake in the primary, thus opening the door for another Democrat in Congress. With the 4 we have, adding Flake’s seat and Renzi’s would turn AZ blue…. (maybe set up a Democrat for senate in ‘10)
July 17th, 2007 at 10:43 am
actually, having Pearce in Congress–in a “safe” district– wouldn’t be such a bad thing. giving that guy that kind of exposure would surely drive away more and more moderate Republicans across the state.
I don’t think a Dem could win that district as it is right now. Maybe after redistricting, and some of the newer Democratic elected officials in the area (there’s really only a couple) get more established.
July 17th, 2007 at 11:28 am
Well, yeah, districting and the make up of the district makes it difficult, but…
This will be a year of very high turnout, a year that Republicans are much much less excited. As has been said, a bloody primary battle that Pearce wins might turn off moderate Republicans from voting for him and push indepdents further towards any…and get this…any reasonable democrat.
October 9th, 2007 at 9:13 am
If this is a great opportunity for a Democrat, how come there’s nobody running except me, the only one who’s filed with Federal Election Commission?
I couldn’t vote for a Democrat in 2006 because nobody was on the ballot. Nor did a Democrat run in the Sixth District in 2004. I want to vote for a Democrat for Congress in 2008, even if I have to run myself, but surely the party can come up with someone better than me.
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