Wednesday, May 2nd, 2007...6:44 am
Nothing About Pete Rios
There was a meeting this weekend of county chairs where the CD 1 candidates were discussed. One of the subtexts of the discussion was that there may be too many darned candidates on the Democratic side.
That may be the case, but there are some candidates who have been mentioned only because they have run for office before and have some tangential connection to the district. For example, Jim Pederson has told people that he isn’t interested in running.
So, if you have printed out one of my CD 1 Bingo Cards, you can cross of Pederson’s name. But, don’t think of it as a free space yet…
A new name has emerged: Dave Brown of St. Johns. Brown is an Apache County Supervisor. My source on this one told me that Brown is related to Jack Brown, but couldn’t remember how. Well, Brown is such a rare name, what are the chances?
Brown’s district covers roughly the Southern third of Apache County, which would be the entirety of the county that isn’t part of the Navajo Nation. He also represents four southern Navajo chapters.
Another County Supervisor being talked about is Liz Archuleta, who is from Coconino County. Should she be elected, Archuleta would be the third Hispanic to represent Arizona in congress, the first Latina, and the first to be elected in a “non-Hispanic district.”
Those of us in Southern Arizona like to think of ourselves as the Hispanic heart of the state, but there is a strong history of Hispanic families in Northern Arizona, many of whom immigrated in the late 19th and 20th centuries not from the southern border, but from the east across the line from New Mexico. There are also many Hispanics in Gila, Pinal and Graham counties.
All this talk about County Supervisors…who ever heard of a County Supervisor being elected to congress? (Yes, I’m being ironic)
There has been a tendency among Democratic Party pooh bahs to think of this district (and sometimes even rural Arizona in general) as being Flagstaff and the Navajo Nation. What they miss out on is that this district is not just in Northern Arizona, but takes in a large chunk of Central Arizona and even dabs its toes South of the Gila River. Several of the Democrats being talked about call Flagstaff home, and many of the others are close enough that they probably drive to the Barnes and Noble there.
There is one candidate being talked about from the area, former Casa Grande Mayor Bob Mitchell. (County Attorney Carter Olson is a “mentioned” but probably won’t make a go of it, and I’m starting to doubt the talk about Mary Kim Titla) Mitchell, in addition to having a brother already in congress, is from one of the fastest growing communities in the state. I’ve heard a few activists dismiss his candidacy, but they didn’t realize how big both Casa Grande and Pinal County actually are compared to the other parts of the district.
In the last primary, Pinal County cast 12,549 votes, which means is has more Democratic votes than any other county in the district (Coconino, by the way, cast 8,619). Pinal County plus the ”three Gs” (Gila, Graham and Greenlee Counties) could cast more than 35% of the vote in this primary if past numbers hold. Any candidate who wants to win the primary may not need to be from the Southern part of the district, but they need to take it seriously.
13 Comments
May 2nd, 2007 at 7:58 am
I’d agree that we have too many candidates interested in running (th0ugh you might also add Winslow mayor Allen Affeldt to the list of possible candidates).
There could be an opportunity though IF the special election is held early enough– we have a devil of a time recruiting people to run for the legislature (that despite the fact that my district, LD 5 is one of the few really competitive districts in the state.)
Talking to candidates who have set their sights on Congress is a good recruiting tool for the legislature. Last time around we had somewhat of a ’success’ here via this route– Holbrook educator and businessman Phil Cobb had been one of several relatively unknown and underfinanced candidates who were planning to run against Renzi the last go around. Several of us made a concerted effort to talk him into running for the legislature instead, and that effort was successful, to a degree. He retooled his campaign and ran against Jake Flake for the state Senate, with the full and unqualified support of the party from day one. Unfortunately Phil lost to Flake, but he was recently elected to the Holbrook city council (where he will certainly do a good job) and may be considering running against Flake again.
If there are all those candidates running for Congress, then the chances are that at least a few of them may sooner or later become convinced that they are aiming too high (even if they become ‘convinced’ of that the night of the primary in a special election) and hopefully there will be an effort made to recruit some of them for legislative races. In which case the exposure they get from running for Congress could be helpful.
May 2nd, 2007 at 8:33 am
A couple of observations about campaigning in CD 1 (having backed losing candidates through all 3 of Renzi’s races):
It is so huge that no candidate will be able to cover it completely.
Candidates with a larger local base will therefore have a distinct advantage over candidates with a smaller local base (hence a state legislator would probably stand a much better chance than a county commissioner, a mayor or a community activist.) See my last comment, this point might be a great selling point on running for the legislature if people really want to go to Congress.
There are at least two former Congressional candidates looking at running, they also would have wide name recognition (though Hayworth and Renzi were always excellent smear-meisters so not all of the name recognition would be positive.)
Since no candidate will be able to cover the whole area they will need to depend on an organization consisting of activists who are already in place. I know (as a precinct committeeman and county first vice chair in the district) I’ve already had at least two candidates specifically contact me. Of course until there actually is a race and until all the candidates are known I’m not specifically committing to working for any candidates.
Because it is so big, it will be expensive to campaign in. An airplane or access to one (along with a broad enough organization to ensure pickup once the plane lands) is a must for a serious candidate. If a candidate can’t raise $2-3 million in a short period of time then (s)he won’t have the resources to win. Even Rick Renzi knew this, in fact part of his problem now has to do with how he raised the money that fast.
Campaigning on the reservation means showing up there. It really hurt Paul Babbitt a few years ago when he went to a few chapter meetings but missed a lot of events on the reservation– events that people expect candidates to go to. Also, a lot of news there travels by gossip. I met a man who told me about the time he was hitchhiking and got a ride from Rick Renzi and some of his staffers. Absolutely brilliant political move– he told his family in Whitecone and knowing a bit about how news travels on the reservation, Renzi and his staffers giving the guy a ride for a few miles in the direction he was going anyway probably reached the ears of hundreds of voters.
Candidates who talk about how they don’t need money because they have a lot of volunteers who will work for them or who figure the money will come in once they have the nomination– they have no clue what the size of this district is. It is larger than any of about half of the STATES in the union. Any candidate who says they can run and the money and organization will follow is due for a rude surprise.
And here is the number one point– the year Rick Renzi got elected, George Cordova, a relative unknown, won the Democratic nomination (a surprise to most everybody here). Democrats here were too slow to rally around Cordova, and we’ve been paying for that for the past five years. Every candidate has to commit to supporting the eventual nominee no matter who it is, and all of us who live here have to be ready to go to work full tilt the day after the primary for whoever is the winner. Each candidate has to make that point clear to everyone in their organization from day one. Maybe in some other districts you can grouse (as I saw some comments on this blog last year) about not liking the nominee or supporting them, but in this district, that is the closest thing to guaranteed poison.
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:51 am
Eli offers a lot of wisdom.
Sounds like someone’s defining Ann Kirkpatrick who:
1. IS a legislator with a broad base. Her 2nd Legislative District includes the Navajo Reservation, and other key portions of CD1 - including Flagstaff, where Kirkpatrick has a long tradition of community involvement and a big support base.
2. Ann spends a lot of time and energy helping the Reservation. One issue is telecommunications. Anyone who’s tried to use their cell phone in remote N. Arizona areas knows there are coverage problems. This affects economic development, tourism and public safety. In other words this affects Indians and non-Indians. She is working with Congress and with the state to address this need. She also attends Rez meetings regularly and has a lot of friends in those circles.
3. Ann grew up in the White Mountains. In fact, her first language as a child was Apache. I love the fact that she studied Chineese in college because it was so easy, thanks to its similarity to Apache!
4. She is raising money and is already lining up support in Washington and throughout Arizona. She will have the fund-raising wherewithall - ESPECIALLY if/when Renzi cuts a plea deal and resigns, forcing a special election.
Many of the other candidates appear to be solid people with lots to offer in their own right. I just think Ann meets the requirements that Eli outlines.
Thanks, Eli (whoever you are).
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:55 am
An interesting thing about the first election in 2002 was that neither of the candidates were really the expected ones. I worked for Lewis Tenney in the GOP primary, a guy who’s a life-long resident of the district and the one people had expected to come out of it despite being outspent 6-1. I mean, you can’t get much more rural than Heber, AZ. Cordova slipped in by beating a Udall but I don’t remember which one which would have set up just about the most traditional match-up you could imagine for AZ, Tenney vs. Udall. You can make the argument that people didn’t rally behind Cordova but I could just as easily make the argument that people didn’t rally behind Renzi in that first election. Not too sure but I think there was something like 15-20 total candidates in the respective primaries for the three parties so that would make it a little harder to rally behind your general election candidate.
As for Bob Mitchell who was mentioned in Tedski’s earlier post. I know I was dismissed earlier when I brought up his failed primary run for the LD23 Senate seat but the most important thing in that race was voter turnout. Traditionally, the areas that Mitchell would have to count on don’t come out to vote. Cities like Casa Grande, Eloy, and Coolidge don’t really turn out and they didn’t turn out for Mitchell leading to his loss.
One of the other things mentioned in an earlier post was about Pinal County and how it has recently turned Republican. You’re absolutely right about none of the county-wide races going to Republicans but you have to look at other things too. For years, federal Republican candidates have done very well in the former Democratic county and Kyl beat a supposed Casa Grande guy here last year. I think Bush got over 55% in both of his elections and Renzi received 59% in 2004 and I think 54% in 2006 (an otherwise bad year for Republicans which should explain the drop). I don’t care where the guy is from if the Democrats nominate a “progressive”, (otherwise known in my part of Pinal County to be a Liberal who wants to take your guns and open the border) I really don’t think they’ll win.
Tedski’s right in a sense to bring up a name from my area of Pinal County because there’s already a sense that we get overlooked but it has to be the right person from down here and I think for the Democrats to nominate Mitchell would be like nominating a re-tread.
May 2nd, 2007 at 3:41 pm
The problem with running someone from Pinal County or Apache County or Yavapai County is that we have the potential to get skunked if the Republicans run either Tom O’Halleran or Lewis Tenney. These guys would mop up Eastern Arizona and Yavapai County no matter WHO we run, and we’d have to beat them by running a Cordova-like race, racking up huge margins in Flagstaff and the Rez (something Kirkpatrick could most easily do).
On the other hand, if the GOP makes the colossal mistake of running Ken Bennett, ANY of our candidates could take him out (except possibly Jim Ledbetter, who’s no better than Bennett in the rural areas). Again, Kirkpatrick could do the best job of it.
Archuleta? I’m not on the ground in CD-1 at the moment, but she passed up a golden opportunity to run in 2004 before Paul Babbitt jumped in, and I think that would have been as good a time as any to make a race of it. Titla would be a good candidate, but I think Kirkpatrick would be better. Steve Owens is such a Phoenix guy now that I think he’d have a hard time against someone like Tenney or O’Halleran. Ellen Simon did well for herself, but she’s way liberal for the District. Ledbetter seems like a bit of a git, as they say. Howard Shanker? My heart’s with him, but my head says Kirkpatrick.
As a side note, the best possible candidate in this district is Coconino County Supervisor Deb Hill, but she’s categorically refused to run on numerous occasions.
May 2nd, 2007 at 7:05 pm
AZ-01: Ellen Simon is in!
Ellen Simon formally filed papers with the FEC to run for the tainted Rick Renzi seat. Simon got into the race late in 2006 and still gave the incumbent a scare. Renzi outspent her almost two to one and ran what Campaigns and Elections magazine called the “nastiest campaign” of the year. He still only won with 52% of the vote.
It looks like Renzi will have to step down, leading to a special election. Arizona law requires an election 3 to 5 months from the time the seat is vacated. In a district the size of the state of PA, Ellen would be the obvious front runner with name recognition, an organization and a strong fundraising base.
Now that it’s obvious that the seat can be taken however, everybody wants a piece and the establishment is lining up behind their own. The monied players want a conservative Democrat who will tow the party line and they’re not worried what the voters in the district think.
Ellen jumped into the race against Renzi in 2006 to make sure that the Republicans would have to fight to hold the seat. She got in too late to build the type of network needed in a district as large as this, but she made significant progress. If we start over from scratch with a new candidate, we’ll be throwing away the work that Ellen and her volunteers put in last year.
We can’t afford to move backwards on this district. Ellen is running and she’s our best bet to win.
May 2nd, 2007 at 8:04 pm
Sonoran Sam:
Thanks for the kind words (’whoever you are’– at least my link is active). Kirkpatrick would be a strong candidate for sure, but so could some other people, and I wasn’t setting out to define anyone in particular. It’s notable though that the state party picked Kirkpatrick to be front and center this weekend and deliver the legislative report.
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:10 pm
Okay, I have some scuttle butt on CD-01. I have been informed that socially rightwing, “Democrat” Jim Ledbetter is not at his law firm right now, but is currently, as we speak, in Washington getting wined and dined by the DCCC in an earnest attempt to get him to run for the seat. Apparently, it’s a forgone conclusion that there will be a special.
This is VERY disappointing to me, but hardly surprising, considering that DLC Rahm Emanuel has pulled this shit before (and was pretty unsuccessful at it, read: Tammy Duckworth).
I am a proud gay Democrat and am very por-choice. Yet the DCCC is trying to shove an anti-choice, anti-gay rich white male down my throat as our nominee in a majority registered Dem CD that includes the liberal places Sedona, Flagstaff, Navajo Nation, etc. The ones who would not vote for a Democrat because of the social issues (like those in Yavapai) are not going to vote for ANY Democrat. Rahm Emanuel is so over-rated in his political acumen, it makes me sick. Look at Carol Shea-Porter, Nancy Boyda, Yarmuth in KY, those two liberal freshmen in IA, etc. You do not need to be a zealous free-trading, socially conservative DLC Democrat to win.
I sure hope that someone like Simon wins this primary.
May 3rd, 2007 at 5:19 am
To Eli:
I guess it’s true that I maintain a certain level of net anonymity. It’s a necessary burden.
I truly meant to admire your analysis. I do think Ann Kirkpatrick fits the candidate description you laid out so nicely. I didn’t mean to put words in your mouth.
I’m sorry if you’re not on board with her yet. And as I said, there are lot of good people looking at CD1. Apparently the DCCC is bringing several back for a look-see. Ann was one of the first.
Yes, she has been getting encouragement from prominent Dems in Flagstaff, Phoenix and Washington.
She has good credentials and that’s why she’s the best candidate. That’s my opinion. I hope that you and a lot of other Dems come to the same conclusion.
May 3rd, 2007 at 8:24 pm
I think Ledbetter or someone close to him is leaking information to make it appear he is being courted. The DCCC was here - they were at the flagstaff dinner on Sat and then in Phoenix on Sunday and left the state on Monday. I was told they left because it was getting to heated. So why would they wine him and dine him in DC why not just do it when they were in the state?
May 4th, 2007 at 5:32 am
I’m sorry to burst your bubble NetRoots…but my understanding is that several of the possible contenders have met with or are planning meetings with the DCCC.Some may have even been “wined and dined.” Rahm Emanuel may be a tool, but he would be a total idiot to pick a horse in this thing this early. Not everything is a nefarious DLC plot.
May 4th, 2007 at 8:29 am
I have it on VERY good authority. Almost, but not quite, from the horse’s mouth. But, well, I guess I’ll post things like this on other sites, then, if I’m just being blown off.
May 4th, 2007 at 9:40 am
Sounds like somebody’s got some hurt feelings:(
Leave a Reply