Thursday, March 29th, 2007...7:46 am
Book of Numbers
So, in my continuing attempt to burden you with soccer references, consider last year’s stats for two players for New England:
Taylor Twellman - 11 goals scored
Matt Reis - 0 goals scored
Wow, it looks like this guy Reis was about useless last season. In fact, he’s played for the team since 2003, and he’s never scored a goal. In that same time, Twellman has scored 62 times. The team ought to ditch this guy Reis and find someone who can, you know, play the game.
You’d think so, except Reis is a goalkeeper, his job is not to score goals. His job is to stop them.
So, just looking at a raw number is not enough. You need to know some context that will tell you what the situation behind those numbers is before you draw too many conclusions.
Which is exactly my problem with yesterday’s article that Daniel Scarpinato wrote in the Arizona Daily Star. He advances the notion that some stat of bills sponsored/bills passed is the only measure of what makes a good legislator. This is ridiculous and unfair.
First of all, he refuses to consider the political situation in the legislature. It is addressed in a couple of quotations from the Democratic members, but he seems to pooh pooh the whole notion that a minority party member would have trouble getting things passed. This is especially a problem in this legislature, where so many bills seem to not get a hearing simply because of who presents them.
There is a subtext to the article that somehow Democratic members would get more done if they just tried harder and weren’t so partisan. This presuposes they are operating in a reality where party doesn’t matter. Gosh, yes, we need a world where politics doesn’t matter, if your idea is good enough, it will become a law and no puppies will die. Well, that isn’t the world we live in. A minority party member is just not going to pass as many bills. That would even be a reality in a legislature without as much partisan rancor.
It is interesting to note that one of the Democratic members who early in the session advocated accomodation with the Republicans to “pass more bills” made Scarpinato’s list of “worst of the legislature.”
This “box score” method also has a big “apples and oranges” problem. Tim Bee introduced 10 bills and 10 passed committee. Well, I would hope so. He’s the president of the Senate. It would be unusual if he didn’t get something passed. To compare his box score to a freshman minority party member (in the other body even), like Lena Saradnik or Steve Farley, is ridiculous. At least he has the good sense to not compare Jonathan Paton, who was busy dodging mortar shells early in the session, with other members.
What is particuarly interesting is that he interviews former Representative Ted Downing, who touts his working “behind the scenes” to get bills passed. But, under Scarpinato’s system, even a relentless bill-writer like Downing would have looked pretty poor too. Scarpinato only counts bills that a member introduced, not bills that a member merely sponsors. This almost certainly means that bills that another member runs for a “behind the scenes” type like Downing would not show up in the box score.
Also, the various things that legislators can do that are beyond writing a bill are not considered. There are amendments that improve bills, strike-alls that allow you to de facto introduce a bill mid-session, markups during budget hearings, conference committees, even work done to change policy of state agencies. None of those would show up in a simple box score.
There is also something to be said about the quality of legislation. What if you pass a bunch of bills that are just poor policy? What if you pass bills that get vetoed? By Scarpinato’s count, wouldn’t Russell Pearce be one or our greatest legislators? Maybe just making sure some of the stupider bills out there don’t pass is also doing your job as a legislator.
None of these things can be objectively measured by numbers, that is exactly the problem with this sort of shallow analysis.
10 Comments
March 29th, 2007 at 8:09 am
I’d make a couple of points about Scarpinato, starting with the following:
1) He’s young and inexperienced.
2) He leans Republican
3) Given all that, he has some decent reporting skills
I wouldn’t ask the same questions as him, but the whole freedom of the press concept rests not on objectivity - because it doesn’t exist. All we can really demand is fairness, and I think he’s fair within his own context.
I think Scarpinato asks the types of questions that a former College Republican would ask, but then he strives to get complete answers. Democrats will have to deal with him, and they will have to accept his leanings, because the only way they’ll get rid of him is if he gets a better job on a bigger newspaper - something I can easily foresee.
Tedski (no surprise) is dead-on when he disses this story. Anyone who thinks that a legislator’s batting average is the be-all and end-all probably does think Russell Pearce is a model legislator (shudder).
In 2008 Republicans will claim that the Lena Seradniks of the world have gotta go because they’re ineffective.
BUT, the truth is that Legislative Democrats are effective in ACTUALLY ADDRESSING THE ISSUES PEOPLE CARE ABOUT.
So Phil Lopes pushes universal health care, Lena Seradnik addresses better schools and better air quality, Tom Prezelski takes on Cox (GRRRRRR)and Russell Pearce & Co. pass silly stuff that requires flags in classrooms, a political litmus test for teachers (no evolution, no global warming, but lots of By-God patriotism). Oh yeah, Republicans also try to restrict the use of the ballot for referenda because they’re tired of people who go around them simply because they’re ignoring Arizona’s actual needs.
This is a Do-Nothing Legislature that continues to ignore public opinion.
Don’t take my word for it. There’s a new poll out showing that Napolitano’s numbers continue to climb, and the Legislature’s continue to drop.
Sorry for expelling so much wind so early in the morning, but this needed to said.
March 29th, 2007 at 8:10 am
Well said. I found Scarpinato’s column unbelievably naive and biased. Or I would have found it that way had I not known his history as a College Republican. His biases really shone through in his (what I believe to be deliberately) sloppy analysis. If the star published the column on the opinion page, that would have been one thing, but this was supposed to be a political analysis column. There may be a fine line, but this does seem to be symptomatic of an overall rightward-shift at the Star since the new Publisher took over. Anyone else notice that shift or is it just me?
March 29th, 2007 at 8:50 am
Eh…it might simply be what journalist typically try to do, which is lean in the opposite direction to where the power lies. I mean, here in Pima County (particularly Tucson) the dominate party is Democrat and it is getting more and more that way each election.
However, this is sloppy regardless. If the story had been about the Board of Supervisors, or City Council, it would have been one thing to perform a watchdog role, but out state legislature, even with the measley pickups in the last election, is still wholely dominated by Republicans.
Ted is just plain right.
March 29th, 2007 at 9:12 am
Perhaps the guy should subscribe to Farley’s newletter, maybe then he would understand just how the legislature works (or in many cases DOESN’T work).
The article mentioned that David Bradley is working with some Republican legislators to get a foster care bill passed,, so he did a little bit more than read the legislature website. However, I doubt that he really spent any significant time talking to the legislators in question directly.
I understand that Bradley has a couple of other bills out there, but do not have his name on them. He works with Republicans who will put them forth, increasing chances that they will get through. Bradley has been in the legislature long enough to learn how to work the system, work with the other side to get things done. The other folks mentioned in the article are just getting started, they will learn. After all, this is just the mid point of the first year for most of these folks.
I do question the bill that Charlene put forth. Addiction counseling for anyone under age caught drinking? That is a bit too much.
March 29th, 2007 at 11:08 am
From Behavior Research Center - http://www.brcpolls.com/07/RMP%202007-II-03.pdf
Phoenix, Arizona , March 28, 2007. Governor Janet Napolitano is given favorable job ratings by
62 percent of Arizonans, including 78 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of Independents and an
impressive 51 percent of Republicans. Only ten percent of the public thinks she is doing a poor job,
including only 20 percent of Republicans.
These are Napolitano’s best job ratings ever and stand in strong
contrast to the views the public has of the job performance of the State Legislature for which only 28
percent give good ratings.
Visit Behavior Research (see citation above) for the full details.
March 29th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
Tedski,
Most well said. I had the same reaction. This guy also tweaked my meters during the last election. I remember when he twisted a Giffords comment into “I did not come home one weekend” during her entire time as in AZ House or Senate, which of course is absurd, and that’s not what she said.
Then, of course, there was that “midnight vote” ad watch column he wrote that got a bunch of folks all excited.
March 30th, 2007 at 6:37 am
Yes, Daniel is young, and yes, the rating system he used in the article was difficult to understand. The problem is that virtually all of the folks who edit his writings know little or nothing about the Legislature, politics or basic government. Worse yet, they’ve been told by consultants that they don’t have to because readers aren’t interested in meaningful political news.
March 30th, 2007 at 8:10 am
Steve:
Well then it sounds like these folks need to go back to college and that journalism programs need to do a helluva a lot better job making sure their students are required to take government classes and not just how to write a story.
If the role of the press is to be a “4th branch of government” or a “watchdog”, then those who are doing the watching need to understand above all what it is they are covering. That includes editors above all.
March 30th, 2007 at 10:24 am
I canceled our subscription to the Star following the Scarpinato hit piece, and sent them the following letter:
Dear Editor:
Enough.
I’ve winced at but tolerated Scarpinato’s biased coverage of everything political – from his references to John Kerry as “John ‘Flip Flop’ Kerry,” to his snarky pieces illustrating the ways in which Democrats have failed (“Immigrants Bill Not Quite What Democrats Had In Mind,” 3/24/07), to his positive coverage of Republican actions while giving mere nods to Democrats’ actions (“State Vets Home May Draw Legislative Scrutiny,” 3/27/07). And there is no other perspective to off-set Scarpinato’s far-right bent. Why isn’t he referring to George “I Lie to the American Public” Bush? I probably should have spoken up earlier, but today’s front page story is the final blow.
The front-page-and-center “article” about how the Democrats in the state legislature get little done is outrageous. It is very poor journalism – no where in the story does he compare the rates of bills being heard in prior sessions, no where does he compare the rates of bills being heard outside of Southern Arizona-based legislators, and he barely mentions the fact that bills are heard at the majority party’s – the Republicans’ – pleasure. And this is not responsible or ethical journalism – it is, at best, a poorly-written opinion piece advancing Scarpinato’s apparent view that Republicans should control everything. Republicans running against these legislators next year could not have paid for a better ad.
I won’t pay for Republican hit pieces on Democrats, which is what today’s piece is and frankly, is the agenda of Scarpinato from the day he started writing for the Star. We have canceled our subscription to the paper and I urge everyone else who cares about ethics in journalism to refuse to pay for this garbage.
Enough.
Pamela K. Sutherland
September 24th, 2007 at 6:40 am
[…] Linda Lopez has taken the plunge and filed papers to run for State Senate. The trouble is, Victor Soltero has not yet announced whether he will retire at the end of this term. […]
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