Tuesday, March 13th, 2007...8:05 am
This Is Not a Toy
The Hill last week announced that John Edwards has made public a list of twelve house members who have endorsed him. On that list: Raúl Grijalva.
This may be thought of as “letting the cat out of the bag,” but the bag was a clear plastic one. Grijalva was courted heavilly by Edwards back in 2002 and 2003 before he decided to support Howard Dean. Grijalva told supporters at the time that the war was the deciding factor. Edwards’s campaign pulled what staff they had out of Tucson when Grijalva went with Dean. Edwards, however, maintained a relationship with Grijalva after the nomination. Edwards came out to campaign for the minimum wage initiative several times last year and always made sure to appear with Grijalva.
A Grijalva endorsement is important because he has been willing to put his considerable campaign organization behind candidates he has endorsed. Dean’s campaign in Southern Arizona, for example, was supported by Grijalva’s machine and headed up by a key Grijalva ally.
Where do the other Democratic karmazyny stand in the race? Well, you’ll probably see them wait a while. Janet Napolitano, for example, waited until after the 2004 primary to endorse John Kerry. At the time, some thought that the fact that former Napolitano aide Mario Diaz was heading up Kerry’s Arizona campaign was a sign that she had given the campaign her blessing, but this was disputed, and Napolitano was very careful to remain neutral. The last time I can recall Napolitano taking an active role in a primary was back in 1992, when she, as an attorney and party vice-chair, supported Bob Kerrey’s Arizona effort, and if I remember correctly, endorsed Al Gore in the 2000 caucus.
Like Napolitano, Terry Goddard came around to endorsing Kerry late in the last primary. He hasn’t been totally averse to working campaigns, chairing Bill Clinton’s 1992 Arizona campaign and endorsing Gore in 2000.
Ed Pastor was a booster of fellow house member Richard Gephardt in 2004. When Gephardt dropped out, Pastor signed on with Kerry. Much like Grijalva, a Pastor endorsement brings with it a set of endorsements from loyal activists and allied office holders.
Harry Mitchell, then a State Senator, came around late to Kerry in the last primary. I couldn’t find that any of the presidential candidates campaigned for him in the last election.
Gabrielle Giffords, also then a State Senator, considered an endorsement of Gephardt, but in the end endorsed Kerry. In her race, she had a visit from Bill Richardson and was a featured speaker at a minimum wage rally that featured Edwards.
Some words of caution are necessary when looking at endorsements. When State Senator Whats-His-Name or the Pah-Ute County Assessor comes out for one candidate or another, ask yourself what this person actually brings to the campaign. Does this person actually have a campaign organization that they bring along, or are they a name on a list? Will this person do any sort of work on behalf of the candidate, or will they just be another person that gets to sit on stage with the candidate?
When a candidate comes out with a list of a dozen legislators that endorse them, just remember two words: Joe Lieberman. Lieberman thought that a moderate state like Arizona with a relatively early primary would be a good place to make a stand. He gathered up an impressive list of legislators as endorsers in mid 2003. Despite this, Lieberman ended up in fifth place with 15,000 some odd votes and 36 percentage points out of first place.
9 Comments
March 13th, 2007 at 9:42 am
Obama appeared with Mitchell at at least one Democratic Sponsored rally in Tempe. Pederson was also there.
March 13th, 2007 at 11:31 am
Is Giffords backing anyone yet? She did get a lot of support from Grijalva and unions in the last election. Also, a good bit of support from Emily’s List. She also showed up at the same Edwards rally back during the campaign.
So, Edwards? Clinton? Obama?
All this talk also reminds me of some things. This will be a tough election. Right now Rudy Guiliani is doing pretty well among conservatives. He is pro-choice, pro-gay rights, and is pretty dynamic. He also has few ties to this administration. In short, if he makes it through the primaries, the stain of the Bush administration will not be on him, he is moderate enough for a lot of people, and would be a formidable candidate.
Which of Edwards, Clinton, and Obama is likely to be the most likely to win against an Guiliani? I am thinking Edwards, because he has fewer negatives, has campaigned before, and would have wider appeal among the states as a candidate. Problem is, I am not sure he can get the nomination with the powerful Clinton fundraising machine and ability to get super-delegates. (Dont they still use those??).
March 13th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Speaking of which, I wonder what the Pah-Ute county assessor does… probably just stares across the state line at Nevada and grumbles.
March 13th, 2007 at 2:58 pm
What makes Grijalva’s endorsement more meaningful than the average congressional endorsement is the fact that some congressmen have a reputation for being very true to their principles, over and above doing what’s politically expedient for them at the time.
Grijalva is one of those people. His endorsement means a lot to the progressive wing of the party and it actually means something. Everyone knows that Raul’s endorsement is based on principle, whereas that’s not often true with others.
March 13th, 2007 at 10:46 pm
Er, Mitchell endorsed Kerry in November 2003 when Kerry was still hemoraging supporters and money. Pre Iowa.
March 13th, 2007 at 10:50 pm
this along with 6 or 7 other state reps from the Lieberman campaign. The hemorage started with Ben Miranda but was led off by then Rep. Ken Clark. Kerry had the most legislative endorsments in Arizona pre Iowa and obviously post iowa.
March 13th, 2007 at 11:37 pm
Endorsements don’t win elections but they can show signs of strength and momentum.
Honestly it is stupid how early the presidential has started. Look at how much time we have left. Rudy is leading the pack right now but many of us were convinced Howard Dean would be the Democratic nominee. The problem is, you need more than just name recognition and media attention: you need votes!
March 14th, 2007 at 9:09 am
Aaron is right…you also need money and support among what some call super-delegates…party insiders who play a major role in bringing out voters and who have fundraising networks.
The so-called “money race” will have its first report in early April. I think the FEC fundraising deadline for the first report is March 31st.
Then we will see how strong Clinton is, how Obama is looking, and Edwards. I have heard that Edwards is raising some serious dough for someone who is not Hillary Clinton. We shall see.
March 14th, 2007 at 11:57 am
Fomer President Clinton also campaigned for Mitchell at Arizona State during the final days of the campaign. With Obama and Hillary’s husband in town, one can only assume that Mitchell’s endorsement will come down to Hillary or Obama.
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