Rum, Romanism and Rebellion

There has been a bit of buzz about a straw poll among Maricopa county Republicans that showed John McCain coming in fourth place behind Duncan Hunter (don’t worry, no one else has heard of him either), Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. Gosh, how did our own US Senator do so poorly? How did a rather obscure US House member from California beat him and other more famous contenders?

(Newt Gingrich? R Cubed Quiz: Name another person first named “Newton” who made a try at a presidential nomination.)

Well, it’s easy to do if you set the rules. The “straw poll” was, to put it charitably, less than formal even by the loose standards that the term “straw poll” implies. Apparently, Rob Haney, a Republican activist that has become famous for being the guy that wants to ruin McCain’s chances at the nomination, handed out “ballots” to folks at the Maricopa County Republican meeting last week. Candidates on the “ballot” were listed as “acceptable” and “unacceptable,” and the ballots were, according to some witnesses, selectively distributed. This wasn’t done as any official part of the meeting, and there was no previous notice that it was going to occur.

By the way, Hunter, who is supported by Trent Franks, was at the meeting and was able to personally work the delegates. This victory will help him come out on top in that “Obscure House Members Who Have No Chance of Winning” Primary over Tomás Tancredo and Ron Paul.

I’m no McCain fan, but this just seems ridiculous. Unfortunately, Mike Sunnucks at the Buisiness Journal swallowed this as an official slap at McCain. I don’t blame him, for all he knows, there was an official vote at a meeting. I wouldn’t doubt that Haney’s folks presented it that way.

Straw polls can be useful, but in a limited way. They can tell you how much support there is within one organization or another for a candidate at best. Even at worst, a decent and honest straw poll can tell you which candidate has their act together enough to organize their supporters to attend. Interestingly, we Democrats are enjoined from doing such things (at least in Presidential races). The DNC wants to avoid the spectacle that often happens with these large straw poll extravaganzas on the Republican side. Hundreds of thousands of dollars get spent by campaigns to bus in supporters and on electioneering to win the votes of a few hundred people at what is really a fundraiser for a local party. I was in Florida on the eve of a huge straw poll in 1995, and I actually caught a TV ad run against Lamar Alexander. Yes, this was a straw poll and not the primary.

In this case, this thing is barely a real straw poll. The conduct of this indicates the trouble with Haney and his crowd (and one that some activists on my side of the fence aren’t immune from either), these guys keep talking only to each other and have convinced themselves that they represent the majority. Is there any serious political observer out there that thinks that John McCain will lose a Republican primary here? Heck, McCain won decisively here in 2000 despite much higher profile opposition (led by then-Governor Jane Dee Hull). These folks aren’t showing any kinks in McCain’s armor; they are just showing they are out of touch with most of the Republicans that they supposedly represent.

R-CUBED QUIZ ANSWER: The only one I could think of is Newton Baker, who was a favorite of anti-Roosevelt forces at the 1932 Democratic convention. He didn’t enter any primaries, and as far as I can tell, adopted no reptillian nicknames. I just mentioned him in an entry last week. You should pay more attention.

NB - Espresso Pundit wrote about this straw poll yesterday. Geez, I seem to be agreeing with him. Don’t tell anyone. Check out his take because it has generated many interesting comments.