Friday, December 1st, 2006...6:25 pm
Who is Toast in 2008?
There are a few, believe it or not, Republican activists and poohbahs that talk to me. One thing that I’m hearing from a few of them is that the CD 8 and CD 5 seats will be easilly retaken by them.
I don’t think it will be that easy in either race, but please guys, keep thinking this way.
This sort of talk seems to be particularly over hopeful in the case of Gabrielle Giffords. There is no doubt in my mind that this first re-election will be tough, but talk in Republican circles that she is already road kill is woefully premature. She ran a very disciplined campaign, and there is no reason to think she won’t run one next time too, especially with the trappings of incumbency to help her. Tim Bee, who was already talking himself up as a candidate before the ballots were counted, seems to think that Giffords will be outed as some sort of out of touch lefty and the voters will turn on her. What Bee forgets is that it was the conservative in this last election that was out of touch with the voters.
In the case of Harry Mitchell, I can see Republican hopes there. The area has been traditionally Republican with 6,754 more of them than Democrats. It can be argued that Mitchell won because of J. D. Hayworth’s connections to the Jack Abramoff scandals as well as his style, which finally seemed to grate as much on voters as it did his colleagues. Republicans are already talking about Rep. Michelle Reagan as if Tempe leaders will pull down the Mitchell statue and replace it with hers in two years.
However, it must be remembered that Mitchell was recruited because he was a strong candidate and a popular local leader. Party leaders recognized that Hayworth would be tough to beat, and wanted to have the best possible nominee. Mitchell wasn’t some schlub that just lucked out. It is also worth noting that independent voters, who went for Mitchell in droves, number 33,953, which is more than either of the major parties. The results in Tempe, where incumbent Republican Laura Knaperek was beaten by some 3,000 votes, show some definite movement to the Democratic party in some parts of the district.
Spidelblog pointed this interesting bit out: the Washington Post has already posted a list of what races are possible party switches in 2008. Guess what? Neither CD 5 or CD 8 is on there but CD1 is. Apparently they think that these little possible criminal indictments might make a difference. I wonder if it will to the Republic?
10 Comments
December 1st, 2006 at 9:49 pm
One of my Republican buddies also mentioned Carolyn Allen as someone who might run against Harry in 2008.
December 1st, 2006 at 11:14 pm
The conventional wisdom is that a vulnerable candidate wins by less than a couple of points prior to the election whereby they get defeated.
There isn’t a candidate out there that can defeat the grandfather Harry Mitchell. I don’t know, something tells me that most voters thoughts of voting against a unique guy like Mitchell is akin to voting against Santa Claus.
As for Giffords, most people don’t know a Congressperson’s voting record. And CD-08 is way more liberal that people think. It’s kinda leftish on the social issues in particular. Giffords also projects a likeable and moderate image, whatever her voting record may be.
And Calolyn Allen? OMG, she’s as old as Hirohito…and Hirohito’s dead. She couldn’t even make it to washington, much less run a grueling campaign. Plus, being a mod, she’d never make it out of the primary. Perhaps Reagan faces the same problem vis-a-vis her pro-choice position.
The GOPers should stop running their mouths this early and make sure they 1) keep their troops together in the statehouse, and 2) have an electable replacement for McCain if he retires in 08.
December 1st, 2006 at 11:53 pm
If the rumored reintroduction of the Out of Iraq resolution, with a little more enforcement, (lite version passed last August at the Flagstaff Democratic State Convention) at tomorrow’s Tucson Democratic State Convention is opposed by Harry, Gabby and David Waid (as the current word in the backrooms suggest) Gabby and Harry will be lucky if they are able to run unopposed in the 2008 primary.
Tomorrow’s lame duck session of the out-going Democratic State Committee may turnout to be a blood bath and the most interesting news of the day.
December 2nd, 2006 at 2:08 am
The GOP will need a candidate who can keep the base in tow while appealing to the Independents who went overwhelmingly for Mitchell last month. Hayworth, Allen Knaperek, and Huppenthal don’t pass that test. But how about Michele Reagan or Hugh Hallman? See http://bloggerforphoenix.blogspot.com/ for more analysis on who’s likely to run and what Mitchell needs to do to win.
December 2nd, 2006 at 8:44 am
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December 2nd, 2006 at 10:51 am
Snowbrdr-
Great, these two have not even been sworn in yet, and you are already talking about a primary challenge?
December 2nd, 2006 at 11:38 am
Caroyln Allen, I believe, lost a close family member recently. I believe her political career is in its twilight. I am more concerned about her resigning mid-session (and being replaced by the LD08 Rep party– most likely Rosatti) than of her running against Mitchell in ‘08.
But what the hell do I know?
December 2nd, 2006 at 10:11 pm
Tedski, if the shoe fits they get to wear it.
Annointment is not a requirement before one may be subject to accountability.
As it turns out there was not a quorum, (Gabby stuck in an weather-delayed airport, didn’t even make the convention) so for today they get a pass.
If we can’t expect a higher standard from our own, why bother with elections at all?
December 4th, 2006 at 12:22 am
Ted:
I think they may just know something about CD 1. If you caught the comment at the meeting Saturday, you know what I mean. Anyway, I’ve already engaged in enough idle speculation about it to last for awhile.
December 5th, 2006 at 11:27 am
I would have to agree with your assessment on CD5 and CD8. Harry will get bumped in 2008 but CD5 is Gabby’s to lose. My guess is that Gabby will hold that seat for some time. Tucson has continued to move in the liberal direction for some time meaning any Republican who runs will have to be from the Kolbe wing of the party.
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