Friday, November 17th, 2006...7:09 am
2008 and All That
I was going to wait a couple of weeks before I wrote about the 2008 congressional race. Darnit, though, Jim Nintzel already starts writing about it in the Skinny. My hand forced by Nintzel, gawd.
One thing to bear in mind, 2008 will not be 1984. Sure, like 1984, the 2008 election will follow a Democratic sweep that brought a Democratic victor in Southeast Arizona (in 1982, Jim McNulty in what was then called CD 5), but I think the local dynamics will be a heck of a lot different.
Jim Kolbe narrowly lost to McNulty in 1982, and basically didn’t stop running. I have serious doubts that Randy Graf could do something similar. If he makes another go of it (he has already said he won’t), it would be his third run in a row. Whatever problems I have with Graf, I think he has enough sense to know that this would make him into Joe Sweeney with more sanity and better hygene. McNulty’s margin over Kolbe was a scant 1.4%, Giffords’s margin over Graf was 10.0%. 10% is not the sort of margin that leaves you clamoring for a rematch.
Rep.-elect Gabrielle Giffords has McNulty’s son, Michael, as a chief advisor and I’m sure he has kept her apprised of whatever mistakes his father made in his single term.
In the Skinny, Nintzel names Bruce Ash and Ray Carroll, both mentioned as candidates this year, as options for the Republicans in 2008. This begs the question, if Carroll and Ash weren’t willing to make a go of it when it was an open seat, what would make them do it if the race was against an incumbent? One observer pointed out to me that Carroll’s term is actually up in 2008, and unlike this year’s race, he would not have to resign his seat.
Nintzel mentioned Tim Bee, who seems to be the most likely candidate of the bunch. Bee’s boosters had been talking him up even before the election; it was nice to see so much confidence from Graf’s fellow partisans. They are assuming that Giffords will be unmasked as some sort of unabashed leftist and voters will be begging for a conservative after two years of Trotskyism. I have my doubts that that will be the case, but Bee is already making a name for himself. He fired long time staff members at the Senate, many of whom worked to block legislation that benefitted Tucson, and looks set to be a high profile Senate president. However, he’ll be running against an incumbent and the legislature as an institution is not held in high esteem here in Baja Arizona. No sitting state legislators have been elected to congress from Southern Arizona. Giffords is probably the closest to an incumbent that we had get elected from this part of the state.
If Bee runs, look for apian puns in the press and on this blog. We will never get tired of it, I promise.
A name that Nintzel didn’t bring up is Jonathan Paton. With the defeat of the conservative slate in LD 26, Paton is arguably the most conservative legislator in Southern Arizona. He’s got that strong conservative record, but lacks the growl and tactlessness of Graf. His stint in Iraq gives him credibility on the war issue that most of Bush’s cabinet doesn’t even have. Even though he will be the first to agrue that his wading into the Dolores Huerta/Tucson High controversy was not done to score points, the fact that it was seen as a shot at Raúl Grijalva probably earned him plaudits from East Side Republican primary voters. Unlike Bee, who is term limited and has only the options of move up or go home, Paton will only now start his second term. I don’t even know for sure if he is thinking about it, and he has plenty of time to wait for other things to open up, but I sense a hunger in him. Not that I’d ever vote for the guy, of course.
If Paton is seriously entertaining the notion of running, what does Bee do? The last thing that the powers that be want is for there to be a divisive primary, but they did such a great job of stopping one this time. If both are thinking about making a go of it, the maneuvering is going to be great fun to watch.
10 Comments
November 17th, 2006 at 12:42 pm
Remember this name in 2008:
“Christine Toretti Olson”
So crazy, it might work!
November 17th, 2006 at 12:56 pm
tedski,
“Paton is arguably the most conservative…”
How did you come up with that? The Arizona Federation of Taxpayers rated Tim Bee “Taxpayer Ally” while Paton earned “Needs Improvement.” Bee got a C (53%) from the Goldwater Institute for 2006 and Paton got a D (44%. In 2005 CAP gave Bee scored 100% and Paton 75%.
You’re not just buying into conventional wisdom without checking your facts are you?
george,
Nice dream but Christine would not collect enough votes from the conservatives to put a scratch on Gabby.
November 17th, 2006 at 1:09 pm
Going by memory here, but didn’t Giffords defeat Paton in 2000 for one of the District 13 house seats?
November 17th, 2006 at 1:41 pm
In the 2000 general for LD 13 votes were as follows: (see Arizona Secretary Of State)
Giffords 25,160
Somers 22,687
Downing 21,684
Paton 20,869
Looks like he lost to more than Gabby.
November 17th, 2006 at 3:29 pm
phx kid-Not dreaming by any means, just a thought. I don’t know what in the heck you meant by not collecting enough votes from conservatives? When you read some of her stuff, she seems pretty conservative-to me at least. Or do you simply mean they won’t vote for a woman?
The name recognition from the Olson side would be a huge plus and the fact that she can raise money should be a big plus as well.
We all know that 2008 will be Gabby’s hardest campaign to come, even harder than this year. If she wins term number two it will be all over for the Repubs and their dreams of taking back the seat.
November 17th, 2006 at 4:38 pm
A Republican nominee has 3 voter segments to pull from. Moderates, independents, and conservatives. Gabby appears to do very well with the moderates and independents so it will be tough for an opponent to do defeat her without having ever conservative vote. A large block of those conservatives are social conservatives and Olson’s pro-abortion position will not get her very far with that crowd. Sorry, she can spend all the money she wants and does have the fame but she does not get the votes to take out Gabby.
November 17th, 2006 at 6:00 pm
Frankly, I think Gabby will do a great job of demonstrating why she is uniquely suited to represent this diverse district. Those who voted FOR her will have ample reason to do so again. She will not be easily categorized (or pushed around!) on Capitol Hill.
What will be interesting to see is how those who voted AGAINST Randy or Bush or the GOP in its current state vote in two years. Republicans will still have a registration edge in 2008 and the district lines will not change. Thus, Gabby’s greatest concern would be to go up against a Republican who can unite their party and peel away a chunk of her independent support. Granted, the indies are less susceptible to defections unless she votes in ways they dislike…or her opponent successfully spins her voting record in a negative way.
Using these criteria as a guide, Tim Bee may be a very formidable opponent. Reliably conservative on most issues, he has a strong record of support for public education, receiving the AEA endorsement in virtually all his races. He has a base in eastern Pima County that cuts into Gabby’s edge there and he and his brother Tim are well-liked in Cochise County, too.
Carroll would also be a strong foe…but how can a guy say he wants to stay here to raise his kids and sound credible changing his mind a mere two years later? I take Ray at his word that he is not planning a congressional run and The Weekly said he would likely run for re-election in 2008.
Mike Hellon might make another run and he would offer some of the same assets Bee and Carroll do. He was the voice of reason and maturity in this year’s GOP primary and has the connections to raise bucks in a field less crowded than the one he had to confront this year. Don’tr count him out.
What I truly hope does not happen is for Gabby to face a challenge from the left in the primary, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if she did.
November 18th, 2006 at 1:32 am
Paton is easily a better fit for the district than most anyone running. He’s a real Republican–not like Huffman, but I think he appeals to all three of the groups Phx Kid was talking about. He’ll go toe-to-toe with people like Grijalva, but unlike Graf, he’s got a great background, education and a sense of humor. He has strong ties with the business community and the military. He was the most successful freshman lawmaker for the past two years. Look at the sheer number of votes he got in the primary.
Gowan was supposedly the most “conservative” candidate in the most conservative district in Southern AZ and Paton has crushed him twice. Even though Gowan (in two elections in a row) outspent him with clean elections dollars and was heavily endorsed by Graf.
As for district 13, that district was a lot different than CD-8–it was evenly split and it was a four-way race (not to mention it was 6 years ago–a lifetime in politics).
Bee is a great guy too. He’s a lot quieter. He would make a great congressman, but he hasn’t had a serious challenge since he beat Bill McGibbon in 2000. He’ll have to ramp up his presence (and not up in Phoenix) in Southern AZ in order to make a strong showing. But if he could get in, he would be a great asset for So. AZ.
The interesting thing is that Paton and Bee work together quite a bit on legislation and seem to be good friends.
November 20th, 2006 at 10:51 pm
The buzz is that Tim will be busy as a bee in his new position as Senate President. He’s already begun clearing the hive of long time political drones. Tim and his honey Grace will likely be more time in Phoenix.
November 24th, 2006 at 8:49 am
I think Wally summed it up pretty well; and Rex made some good points too. However, is everyone forgetting the 800 pound gorilla in the room? How does a John McCain-led ticket affect Gabby and either Paton or Bee? It may be a pipe dream, but the McCain coat tails might be the silver bullet in CD 8, and in the CD5 (formerly know as J.D. Hayworth’s district).
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