Wednesday, November 8th, 2006...7:12 am
So, Let Me Get This Right: Gay Couples Can Live Together, They Just Can’t Speak Spanish?
Just a couple of thoughts…I’ll write more later when I’m a little more awake.
Anyone remember fifteen months ago or so? I think the prediction was that J. D. Hayworth was going to demoish Janet Napolitano and the Republicans were going to get a bullet-proof 2/3 majority in both houses so even if Napolitano won, she wouldn’t be able to veto anything.
So, how did that go?
It seems like the supporters of Dave Jorgenson, Al Melvin and Randy Graf over estimated the conservatism of not only their districts, but even fellow Republicans. Take a look at District 26: yeah, Hellon was a moderate Republican, but so were her predecessors. 
It should have been obvious to Melvin that she probably represented the sort of Republican that lives in the district. Instead, he only strayed from his “RINO Hunter” rhetoric long enough to regurgitate Goldwater Institute talking points that had little do do with voter concerns.
Ron Drake had a similar problem. I actually thought the guy would be a decent candidate. Now, I didn’t think he could win, but I thought he’d be an articulate candidate who would fly the Republican flag, and then get crushed. Drake though seemed to be clueless about Tucson voters, who do comprise the largest share of voters in the district. His “you people in Tucson need to learn” statements in debates probably didn’t win him much support down here. My only real encounter with his supporters was at the U of A debate, and they seemed to be composed entirely of students from the Phoenix area. They didn’t understand Raúl Grijalva’s popularity because they didn’t understand and were dismissive of Tucson.
And nationally: was there anywhere where the Democrats lost a seat? In 1994, no incumbent Republican lost, which was seen as a repudiation of Democratic policy. This year, not only did no incumbent Democrat lose, but no where where there was an open seat (so far) was a Democrat even replaced by a Republican. Even in 1994, where Tony Knowles was elected governor of Alaska and John Baldacci won an open house seat in Maine, the occasional Democrat was able to win a new seat.
I remember the media buying the spin that this was a sign that voters were ticked at the Democrats. Already though, I’m reading spin that this arguably clearer victory was a repudiation of both parties. One of the people I’ve already heard spinning it this way: Joe Lieberman.
More later.
1 Comment
November 8th, 2006 at 8:16 am
What a great night! Especially nationally. As I sit here and write, Democrats received pickups in the House in virtually every area of the country…rural, south, NE, and urban. Democratic strategists should especially look closely at the heartland pickups in Indiana, Ohio, and some of the southern pickup in states like North Carolina. I would study these hard and think about this hard for the 2008 election. I would also be careful too and take a look at how the south went. Not a whole lot changed there in states like S. Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, etc. Those candidates who appealed in North Carolina and in the heartland are the types of voters that have to be won over by the party in its attempt at taking back the White House. Can a Hillary do it? Or more reasonably, will it be someone else that appeals better?
Statewide, I was a little disappointed in ways and ELATED in others. Prop. 107 is the first ballot initiative of its type to go down in flames. Might have been more extreme than those in other states though. Also, how many pickups did we get in that state legislature total? House and Senate? This should have been a year, despite the structural issues, to pick up seats and I fear that it might have been very very few overall. The LD 26 races show great promise. When democrats focus on something, they can pull it off, but statewide? BIG problems still exist if they could not pick up MORE seats in a year like this one. There is clearly a talent issue that has to be addressed by the party statewide. The statewide races were filled with people with little to no name rec. at all. Sad, but below is cause for elation.
Giffords wins…Mitchell Wins…Prop 107 fails…min. wage wins…and of course we keep our Gov. and Att. General. All good candidates, all moderate, all painted as reasonable people and issues.
Oh…and on Arizona 8th, I predicted the national outcome (House by 30 or more…looking good…and the Senate…looking good). I need to switch jobs!
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