Friday, November 3rd, 2006...6:11 am
Live, Local, Latebreaking
I spoke to a fellow political hack who pointed out to me that Democratic candidates often break late in Arizona. This is caused by the Republican registration advantage and our late primary.
One of the things that people forget about the 2002 campaign was that few, if any polls, showed Democrat Janet Napolitano ahead. For the last few weeks of the campaign, she was pretty consistently down, but within the margin of error. This is one of the reasons that I’ve been holding out hope for Jim Pederson; he has gained throughout the year and now looks to be within striking distance.
Well, it looks to be better than striking distance: the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has dropped a million dollars into the race and is touting a poll showing that Pederson has a four point lead among people who have turned in early ballots.
(Interestingly, 12% refused to give an answer. How do the “hey pollster, get stuffed!” voters break?)
Chris Matthews (who I’ll complain about later) has picked this one as a “dark horse” race, and Chuck Schumer has called this a “sleeper.” Democrats are now giddy about Pederson’s chances, which has further served to gin up the base.
Could be a long Tuesday night for Jon Kyl.
NB - By the way, the same dynamic seems to be happening in Harry Mitchell’s race.
5 Comments
November 3rd, 2006 at 7:14 am
I’ll give you that J.D. is in trouble but Kyl, please.
First the WSJ / Zogby poll. Kyl was ahead by 6.2 points on Oct 19. Then on Oct 31 Kyl was up by 7.4 points. That trend is not in Pederson’s favor.
More close to home is Kenski’s polling. That was her main job all year to track Kyl. She shows him doing just fine, even among early voters.
November 3rd, 2006 at 7:49 am
The Star reports today that Pederson only has a 1-point lead in Pima County. That will not be enough to offset what the same poll says is a 10-point Kyl lead in Maricopa County. Pederson’s lead in the rural counties, however, makes me think that there is a possibility that he could pull a Jason Williams-like surprise on Tuesday.
Despite leading in the rural counties, Pederson will need the same big turnout and margin down here that Janet got in 2002. I am hoping that this margin will come out of CD7, where Latino voters should be up in arms against some of the propositions on this year’s ballot. Another hope is that Republicans who are backing Gabby will see how ideologically aligned Kyl is with Graf on most issues, including immigration, education and stem-cell research funding.
November 3rd, 2006 at 9:03 am
The reason that I think that Pederson can make this happen still is “this year.”
This year is different…there is nothing at all like it in recent American history. Enormously low public approval, enormously low approval of Congress, Democrats energized, Republicans not so engerized…and the list goes on.
The accuracy of all polls, in part, is based on the past. The differentiation among “like midterm voters” and those registered (in the past) is massive.
But this year is different. I am not only holding out hope, but am betting that the polls…this year…will underestimate the vote for and by Democrats.
People are just damned angry and no matter what Kyl does or says, he will be lumped in with Bush and the War because he was their biggest backer in the Senate.
As to what Rex said, a 1 point edge in Pima is not enough. I think it will be higher, but it should be MUCH higher. I bet that it will be. Demos here are very energized and as Ted says, when the voters come out, I don’t see many of them picking Kyl.
November 3rd, 2006 at 7:12 pm
You were saying… Looks like Pederson just got stepped on.
November 3rd, 2006 at 7:48 pm
Pederson’s apparent lead in the rural counties actually bodes well for Ellen Simon, who no one seems to be talking about.
Pederson needs to win the out counties by five and Pima by five to have a chance.
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