Wednesday, November 1st, 2006...12:40 pm
Giffords With Solid Lead in Tucson Weekly Poll
The results of the final Tucson Weekly poll on the CD 8 race have been posted at their blog, along with some quickie analysis of the numbers by Jim Nintzel. I imagine that a more complete analysis will be posted tonight as well as in the print edition that strikes the streets of the Naked Pueblo tommorrow.
The numbers:
Gabrielle Giffords (D) - 50%
Randy Graf (R) - 35%
Undecided - 11%
David Nolan (L) - 2%
Jay Quick (I) - 2%
The number that strikes me is that Giffords has a 26 point lead over Graf among those without a party preference. This seems to bear out with what I’ve seen in other races in the state. Many Democratic candidates this year seem to have a strong lead among independents, most notably Janet Napolitano. Recent surges by Jim Pederson and Harry Mitchell have been coupled with solid jumps of independent support.
Could we hurry up and have this election already?
9 Comments
November 1st, 2006 at 2:10 pm
Hey, how about John Shadegg in CD 3? Can we talk about that race instead? You never talk about North Phoenix and Scottsdale any more.
November 1st, 2006 at 2:59 pm
Shadegg needs to be a House leader already.
November 1st, 2006 at 3:41 pm
I don’t think the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man will be in his position much longer.
November 1st, 2006 at 5:02 pm
If that lead holds, it certainly will be difficult for the Republicans to pull their usual game of claiming that the Democrat only won because hordes of mojados crossed the border just to vote. However, facts don’t mean much to some people, and our friends at Espresso Pundit seem to be laying the groundwork for just such an argument.
Here is some news for you folks: “brown” and “illegal” are not the same.
November 1st, 2006 at 6:01 pm
As someone who was a Republican just six years ago, I’ve seen visual evidence of Randy’s inability to bring Huffman and Hellon supporters into the fold by scanning the crowd at debates. You simply don’t see any of those folks showing up to boost him. Sure, they’ll sign fundraising letters and do what they must to profess party loyalty, but what they do in public (or tell pollsters in private) is something else entirely. Randy will not only lose this county, but he will lose moderate GOP areas all over and be a detriment to candidates such as Melvin and Jorgenson in LD26. Watch for the Right to blame Kolbe’s denial of an endorsement and the lack of enthusiasm everyone in the Schwarzenegger/Giuliani wing (doesn’t THAT sound weird!) showed for Randy as the reasons for his loss next Tuesday.
I wonder what Ray Carroll is thinking right now?
November 1st, 2006 at 6:46 pm
I agree with Rex and Tom. I think there will be yet another attempt to blame illegals (who just DONT VOTE folks).
I also think what Rex said is right on. I see the fracture in the Republican party coming and coming really big. In some great pieces on conflict there are models that talk of what happens when the militants take over discussions or negotiations. The moderates are typically driven away, leaving the ideology of the militants to dominate the discussion. In short, they begin talking to each other and seeing the “moderates” as just as bad as those on the other side of the issue.
In the case of this election, I think there will be a lot of blame of Randy’s loss on moderate republicans and a lot of anger by moderate republicans at the right for dragging the party far far away from the median voter.
I see a real fight for the soul of the republican party. It will be most evidenced by the divide over immigration (how tough is too tough and is it good for business?) as well as issues such as the deficit, corruption, etc. etc. etc.
November 1st, 2006 at 6:49 pm
Oh…by the way…based on what I said above, this is the perfect perfect time to start wooing and loving on those moderate republicans you know. If it is a choice between the Graf’s and Pearce’s versus the Giffords’, Napolitano’s and Mitchells…well that is easy.
November 1st, 2006 at 7:12 pm
Apparently the DSCC is thinking a little of what I was about the Pederson/Kyl race. They are buying all the ad space they can find for Pederson this week…in Tucson and in Phoenix.
This has to be to try to get people who vote for Giffords to also vote for Pederson and for people who vote for Mitchell to also vote for Pederson. Both are Republican drawn districts so if Pederson can outpoll Kyl there or stay even…it is a pick up.
The ad buys, though, will undoubtably reach into Democratic stronghold districts like Grijalva’s and Pastors. In order to win this Pederson needs to awaken the sleeping giant of voters in these districts who know they will have the same congressman the next day.
I am urging Drake to campaign like nuts…go crazy man…remind everyone that there is an election for us…PLEASE!
Oh…and I have seen the Grijalva machine at work in the past. In my neighborhood. A finally tuned, well oiled machine that turns out voters.
Ya’ll need to do it again right now for Pederson.
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:01 am
KRALMAJALES–
Yes, indeed. The worst of the extremist attitude has been seen in Al Melvin. By extremist, I’m not talking about his issue stances [though they are very conservative]–I’m talking about what he says on his website about “moderate” “liberal” Republicans–He was quoted as saying the difference between him and Toni Hellon, and the difference between the Republican party and the Democratic party is the difference between “good and evil”. At the Church of the Nazarene forum this past Monday night, he talked about the “culture war” that is going on. His take-no-prisoner attitude is such that he doesn’t believe in the Republican party should have a sizable tent–all moderates should leave.
This intraparty intolerance and litmus tests should be eschewed by Democrats.
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