Thursday, October 26th, 2006...6:09 pm
District 25 Update
District 25 is the most perfect example of why our current 30-district scheme in the legislature is inadequate. It looked as though the Independent Redistricting Commission piled every Southern Arizona community they couldn’t figure out what to do with into one district. It includes most of Cochise County as well as Nogales in Santa Cruz County, then moves up to take in the Tohono O’odham Nation as well as exurban Phoenix. Heck, any district that includes exurban Phoenix and exurban Tucson is probably not well drawn.
The district, although marginally Democratic, has a split delegation, with Republican Jennifer Burns representing it along side Sen. Marsha Arzberger and Rep. Manny Alvarez. When this race started, Pat Fleming and Richard Boyer, both from Sierra Vista, emerged as candidates. Boyer has since decided to run for Corporation Commission.
I think when this thing started, people didn’t give Fleming much of a chance. I knew better, though. When I was with Wesley Clark’s campaign, Fleming was our top volunteer in Cochise County and managed to put together a great operation out there. We had a fantastic rally with Clark in Sierra Vista, and in the end we came within 331 votes of winning, which given how John Kerry pounded us in the rest of the state was pretty good.
Fleming has put on a great campaign, and now internal polls are showing that she can win this thing and the district will once again have an all Democratic delegation. This also makes the math for Republican hopes for a veto-proof legislature a bit harder.
Another good sign for Fleming: Arizona List, a group that supports Democratic women running for office, refused to endorse Fleming for most of the race. Earlier this week, however, they sent an e-mail to their members asking that they help Fleming.
This leaves Burns out in the cold. Some polls are showing that she could very easily come in fourth behind former Rep. Gail Griffin. Burns has voiced her frustration that the Democrats are running a candidate against her at all, given that she has been a moderate. As far as Republicans go, Burns has been one of the good ones, but when her party is on the hunt for a 2/3 majority, which would render her moderation useless, it is silly to think that we would leave any Republican untargeted in a Democratic district.
It seems that Burns’s issue is really with people in her own party, who recruited a candidate to knock her out in the primary and who seem to be more eager to help Griffin. I’m not sure why it is the Democratic Party’s job to rescue her.
NB – How can I talk about District 25 without recognizing the anniversary of the OK Corral gunfight, where Republican Wyatt Earp used a local gun-control statute as a pretext to gun down several Democrats.
5 Comments
October 26th, 2006 at 10:14 pm
That last paragraph really explains a helluva lot about Arizona politics.
October 27th, 2006 at 12:38 am
The question is, is it true? Because I have always disliked Wyatt Earp and never been able to say why.
October 27th, 2006 at 1:33 am
Interesting post…thanks.
I like Jennifer Burns a lot. Smart and very very moderate.
That said, control of the House…evening out committees…is very important.
The only thing I don’t like about the post is the references to keeping Republicans from getting a veto proof majority. How about a “glass half full” way of stating it? Shouldn’t we talk about dems picking up seats…taking back the state legislature…instead of defeated rhetoric like preventing a veto proof majority?
I know that districting benefits Republican incumbents here, but so does the federal districts drawn here…and what are we seeing? High enough potential turnout among dems and independents to stunt that advantage.
Shouldn’t dems gain seat in this election if in ANY? IF not, WTF?????
I am being picky about the language, I know, Ted…and you know the state better than me…but if dems are ever going to shake up the state…they have to at least believe they can win. If they don’t, no one else will.
October 27th, 2006 at 10:30 am
The best analysis of the politics behind the OK Corral and other similar incidents in the 19th Century West is in Richard Maxwell Brown’s “No Duty To Retreat.” It should be available in most respectable academic libraries and ASU’s as well.
October 28th, 2006 at 11:28 pm
In all fairness, Republicans were the liberal ones back in Wyatt Earp’s days. Most of the Clantons and McLaury’s were former or sons of former Confederates.