Thursday, October 19th, 2006...4:40 pm
Another Moronic CD8 Rumor Disembowled: A Public Service I Provide Free of Charge
Back on the sixth, Blog for Arizona threw in this little tidbit in a piece on a Zogby poll that later turned out to be a bit of an outlier:
If this trend holds up in multiple polls, this might be a tightening of the race, though representing mostly a drop-off from Gabby [Giffords] to undecideds, rather than any meaningful gain for [Randy] Graf. I’ve heard rumors of a as-yet-unreleased poll from UofA’s KUAT showing the gap between Graf and Giffords as narrow as 6%, which would confirm a trend, but I haven’t got solid sourcing on that as yet and am looking into it.
At least when that was put up, it was put up as a rumor. But, this morning, Arizona 8th not only put up the rumor as Gospel, but further asserted that KUAT is also supressing the results of a second poll and fired a producer for leaking the results.
So, I called the Arch-Duke of KUAT’s award winning news operation, Bill Buckmaster. Buckmaster told me that there is no poll and no producer has been fired. KUAT has not hired a pollster and does not have an in-house polling operation.
From the beginning, the CD 8 race has been rife with rumors like this one based on a rather faulty premise: that a media organization would spend ’round about $10,000 on a poll, then not use it. It is especially silly here, since the claim is that a local public television station would waste money on two polls that they don’t make public. Heck, they are so tight that I couldn’t even keep my snazzy KUAT coffee mug after my appearance on their flagship news program.
I found it funny that the rumor was that Graf was only six points behind. If you remember, local Republican bloggers were gushing about another “secret” media poll a while back that showed that Ron Drake was six points behind Raúl Grijalva.
What is so magical about six?
It was claimed that that poll had been commissioned by the Tucson Citizen, who were of course, supressing it. Actually, it really depended on who you talked to. I think it was claimed that every media outlet in Southern Arizona except for maybe 110° and Soda Pop had commissioned the poll and burried it. As it turns out, the poll was an internal campaign poll conducted by a firm that has in the past done work for the Citizen, but not commissioned by them. The “down by 6%” was only after recipients heard a list of negatives about Grijalva, and a series of positive statements about Drake. So, in other words, the poll said that if everyone hears Drake’s message, he still loses by six points. Not exactly something to brag about.
Of course, these little fables are being told to give these candidates the illusion of momentum. Well, that’s all they’ve got right now, I guess.
5 Comments
October 19th, 2006 at 7:47 pm
well, so Arizona 8th and Blog for Arizona are reading off the same cribsheets. I guess that the old saying is true–left and right really do come together off at the margins.
but mike bryan is really endangering his cred with this stuff… if he keeps it up, he might stop being Dwight Leister’s favorite blog.
October 19th, 2006 at 8:08 pm
1. We didn’t go with the KUAT poll rumor until we heard it from a number of sources. Generally these sources have been good and they are not related. If they are wrong, they are wrong, but it would have had to have been more than someone whispering it once into our ear for us to print it as the rumor has been out a number of weeks without us printing it.
2. No one EVER claimed that the Drake poll was done by a news organization. It was done by Margeret Kenski for the Drake Campaign. My personal belief was that the poll was flawed. I guessed that the name recognition for each candidate was low enough to make the contest pretty close. That would explain why the Drake campaign would have released the separation, but not the actual percentages. I wasn’t aware that Kenski did push polling, but if she did, that would explain the numbers as well. Didn’t spend much time on this, it wasn’t my territory.
The only polls not being relased other than the KUAT poll were private organization polls which are generally not released as a rule.
3. Kenski poll 17%, Star Poll 12%, previous Star poll 10%, Zogby poll 8%, only the previous Star Poll and the Zogby Poll give their methodology. If I were looking at outliers, I wouldn’t peg the Zogby poll as the outlier, but that is just me.
4. Good Hell you people have sure become thin-skinned. Should the Republicans retain the house every one of you look to go spittle-flecked Oberman on us. Tucson will get by for two years whether it is Gabby or Randy. Didn’t see a tremendous amount of crying from the Republican side back when the state party was accusing Republicans of cutting their power and phone lines.
I look forward to the day that fragmentation occurs to the point where accurate polling is no longer possible, if we are not there already. It will certainly help political discussion and campaigning on ideas.
Thanks for the platform.
October 19th, 2006 at 8:11 pm
Come on Tedski - KUAT? Bill Buckmaster? You know those commies have a liberal agenda and are just covering up for their defeatocrat masters.
And Drake really should be congratulated for his accomplishment. How hard is it to lose your own push-poll? It’s hard work!
October 19th, 2006 at 8:56 pm
666 Ted! Think about it, totally a sign that Republicans are all satanists!
*laughs*
Just probably a coincidence about the double sixes.
October 19th, 2006 at 10:20 pm
turtle,
At least give Michael Bryan credit for immediately ridiculing the insinuation that wire theft at Pima Dems HQ was a Republican dirty tricks, and calling on PHX Dem flunkies to cut tht out.
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