Saturday, September 23rd, 2006...7:02 am
RNCC Fallout
I’ve been mentioned over at Politico Mafioso now. I am such an important figure in Arizona politics that I’m worth mentioning.
Apparently, I’ve been demonizing that poor, innocent, unable-to-speak-up-for-himself, never-meant-any-harm-to-anyone whelp, Randy Graf.
The main thrust of the post is that the RNCC is being whimpy for not standing up for Graf. That has been the thrust of many replies on this blog as well. I can see why Graf’s supporters would be ticked about this. It is an open seat currently held by a Republican, why abandon it?
But, they make the same mistake I see many of Graf’s supporters doing when they evaluate this race: they say that a poll realeased by that “liberal” Gabrielle Giffords (two and a half weeks ago, she was too conservative, right?) somehow caused the RNCC to drop its active support of Graf.
The RNCC has its own polling, no doubt, and any evaluation of this race would be based on that rather than a three page memo released by a Democratic campaign. Something is leading them to believe that Graf is not worth throwing money at.
I’m also hearing the cannard that Jim Kolbe and Jim Click somehow are manipulating the RNCC. If the fellas at the RNCC had numbers that showed that Graf was within striking distance or had room to turn this around, they really wouldn’t care what some car dealer and a lame duck congressman thought. Click is a Republican hard-core, I doubt that he would “order” the RNCC to hand the seat to a Democrat that he probably has little use for.
This isn’t to say that Graf can’t win this. The DCCC is still taking this race seriously for that very reason. Graf is just going to have to do this without the RNCC until he can prove to him that he can win. However, his winning or losing is not based on whether the national party is throwing money at him. This is a lesson that many past Democratic candidates in the district had to learn too.
Oh yeah, and they all whined that they could win if only the national party threw money at them too.
5 Comments
September 23rd, 2006 at 8:26 am
I think people who make much of both the national parties pulling their ad buys at this point in the game forget that those decisions in any district are based on current numbers. Should those numbers tighten, both parties will make late ad buys. They are being smart with their money and devoting it at this time to races that are closer in other parts of the country.
As a Giffords backer, I am still nervous as hell for several reasons:
1. Graf’s strength in the areas where border issues are of paramount interest is hard to gauge using conventional polling techniques.
2. Northwest Pima County conservatives are energized after their primary victories, which makes LD26 and its environs fertile ground for Graf, too.
3. Green Valley is a high turnout area and also Graf’s home base.
4. The gay marriage ballot issue motivates Graf voters to get to the polls.
5. Negative attacks on Giffords from Graf and indie groups like the NRA, National Right to Life and the Minutemen will soon begin and will cut into her lead.
Is it just me, or are too many political observers wrongly convinced that this race is all but over? I think you cede ground to an opponent when you underestimate or denigrate them, not to say that is what you are doing, Ted, but one does pick up on that theme in the press and on the blogs.
Graf has been hitting hard on issues that get people to the polls since his career began and he can be articulate, persuasive and relentlessly “on message.” I am glad that it doesn’t look like Giffords is taking anything for granted, but it strikes me that some of her backers are.
September 23rd, 2006 at 11:18 am
Folks at the RNCC are a shrewd bunch. Local Repugs can whine all they like, but the fact is plain that the RNCC knows a loser when they see one!
If Republicans weren’t being challenged so effectively across the country, they would likely have given at least some support even to a nut like Graf. But that’s not the reality this election cycle. With so many holes in the dike to fill and the majority in the House on the line, they cannot afford to waste resources on Graf.
Rex is also right that it would be a tragic mistake for Dems to let up in this campaign.
September 23rd, 2006 at 11:35 am
Rex is absolutely right in his concern about this race. This is NOT a cakewalk for Gabby as many are implying.
That said, I know her campaign is not resting on their laurels. They have their daily fundraising goals and as near as I can tell, they’re meeting it. I haven’t seen Graf go on the air yet, but once he does, the polling will tighten considerably and the RNCC may be back.
With more than a month to go, this is still anyone’s game.
September 23rd, 2006 at 12:24 pm
Rex, as a fellow Giffords supporter, I would describe my position as “cautious optimism” and concur with your concerns.
There are some real unknowns. Folks seem remarkably unimpressed with something that I find extraordinary, which is that the RNCC dropped six figure sums in a massive effort to defeat Graf, AND THEY LOST.
I have to ask “What beat them?!”
Sure, a pathetic Huffman might be the answer. But maybe it was something about Graf.
If so, then I assert it has only gained strength. Been watching TV? No way in hell has Graf gotten weaker in the last week.
His ads have started running. Saw one this morning. It was a positive ad, no mention of opponents.
Well, maybe Graf’s win 9/12 is just sending a lamb to the slaughter, and things really are that simple and why should RNCC waste money?
Then again………
September 23rd, 2006 at 5:32 pm
Graf’s statements on Medicare is perhaps the overriding reason he’s unelectable in a district that contains the sheer amount of retirees that AZ-08 does (Green Valley, Oro Valley, etc.).