Wednesday, September 20th, 2006...12:17 pm
Ah, the First CD 8 Poll of the Season
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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research has released a poll showing Gabrielle Giffords at 52%, Randy Graf at 35% with Independent Jay Quick and Libertarian Dave Nolan each getting 5%.
Giffords is also at 78% name id, and has a 51% approval rating and a 18% disapproval rating. Graf, on the other hand, is better known at 82%, but disapproved by 39% of district voters, with only a 32% approval rating. Such ratings for Graf are by no means insurmountable, but it means that he starts with an electorate a little less likely to hear him out.
Of course, we shouldn’t rest on our laurels. What I’ve seen of Giffords’s campaign over the last week doesn’t show they are. But, guldernit, this is nice.
19 Comments
September 20th, 2006 at 1:46 pm
Nice neutral group there Ted. From the web site of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner “We give Democrats the edge over their opponents, taking on and winning the toughest races.”
Toughest races? I thought this was going to be a pushover.
Are you sure you are not confusing a push poll with a survey done by a reputable firm?
September 20th, 2006 at 2:02 pm
The whole world already knows this is a pickup for the Dems.
September 20th, 2006 at 2:16 pm
If this is such a slam-dunk why is Gabby run an ad about how tough on the border she is?
Why doesn’t she just save her money, I mean it’s already a done deal.
September 20th, 2006 at 3:15 pm
Geez, Kid, when did you start using George Tuttle’s definition of “push poll” meaning, “poll with results I don’t like”?
They are a Democratic firm, but their business would dry up darned quick if they made a habit of reporting bad data, ’specially since campaigns depend on it for devising strategy.
September 20th, 2006 at 3:39 pm
PK,
Invite you to consider that the Giffords campaign is playing for keeps and taking nothing for granted. A poll could come out showing every creature with feet voting for Giffords, and they will still run ads, still walk neighborhoods, still mail mailings, and not rest until 11/8.
Not only will they not let up, they will probably raise the bar.
60%?
September 20th, 2006 at 8:37 pm
You could also apply the Roger hypothosis that it is better not to publish your own best case poll numbers (as these most likely are) when it is possible or even probable that the numbers will shrink, giving Graf the appearence of closing, even if it is just the numbers evening out.
Grafs next 15% would be a lot easier to grab than Gabby’s next 5%.
Were I running Gabby’s campaign I might have kept those numbers close until i saw how they compared to another third party poll, especially if she thought her lead was actually that high.
However, leaking to bloggers is always OK.
September 20th, 2006 at 9:53 pm
Ted-When the poll omits candidates who are on the ballot (now why would they do that??) then it is a push poll.
September 20th, 2006 at 11:57 pm
tedski,
“since campaigns depend on it for devising strategy.” I guess Greenberg Quinlan Rosner told Gabby that securing the border and stopping illegal immigration are big issues with voters. Funny since the left has been saying that those are not real issues and Randy is wrong to discuss them.
x4mr,
I am confused. I keep hearing that Gabby has this race sown up and Graf can’t win. I know Gabby is working hard and running a great campaign. Why? If Graf is such a push over why does Gabby need to work so hard? Very strange.
September 21st, 2006 at 6:12 am
Phx Kid,
I imagine you are being satirical, but to address both points:
1. I don’t believe anyone has said the border isn’t an issue at all, they’ve said:
a. It’s not the number one issue, and
b. Even on the issue itself, Graf’s stance is not a winner with the majority of the exlectorate.
There is no question the border is AN important issue, but not to the exclusion of everything else, as many Graf supporters would like to push.
2. Don’t be silly — even if you think you are way ahead you don’t take anything for granted. When you do, you end up in a position such as the Eagles were last weekend against the Giants, blowing a big lead and losing in the end.
Regardless of what the polls show, you work just as hard as if you were 5 points behind.
September 21st, 2006 at 6:18 am
This post has been removed by the author.
September 21st, 2006 at 6:20 am
George,
There are legitimate reasons to run a poll without mentioning all the candidates. If you are convinced only two or three are valid contenders, you might want to remove the rest as “statistical noise”. That doesn’t make it a push poll.
A push poll, as you have been told before, is when you purposely phrase your polling questions to “push” the respondent in favor of one of the options you are providing, at the expense of another option you are providing. An attempt is made to leave a negative impression about one of the candidates rather than remaining neutral.
In the poll you have in mind, no impression (negative or positive) was left regarding your favored candidate (Latas). Ergo it wasn’t a push poll.
Just as the administration can keep trying to define Iraq as doing well even though it’s not, you are free to keep mis-interpreting the meaning of what a “push poll” is. You and the administration will continue to be wrong on the respective matters, but hey, what the hell.
September 21st, 2006 at 6:29 am
As to the poll results themselves …
I don’t find the results overly surprising, actually. What I find interesting is they announced the results at all.
In the run-up to the primary over the summer, I kept hearing people claim if Giffords’ internal polling _really_ showed good numbers they would announce them. It turns out their polling over the summer showed perfectly good results, but they chose to keep the data to themselves for whatever reason.
This time they have decided to announce the results instead. Why the difference?
My best guess is they feel they have legit data (I.e., data likely to be at least roughly confirmed by any Rep. polling) and by announcing it now they are trying to minimize any fundraising momentum by Graf or the amount of money spent on the race by Republican organizations (NRC, etc.) — i.e., with such a wide lead, those folks may opt to place their money elsewhere, in more competitive races.
Thoughts or comments anyone?
September 21st, 2006 at 7:19 am
Sirocco,
As to the border “It’s not the number one issue.” Gabby’s ad could have fooled me. It looks like a number one issue after viewing her TV spot.
“Graf’s stance is not a winner.” Gabby’s ad says she would support “Tough new border security.” I would love to hear more details about how her plan differs from Graf’s because from the ad her position sure sounds a lot like Graf’s.
September 21st, 2006 at 7:20 am
I’m starting to believe that releasing this poll was Gabby’s first big mistake.
If the margin is wide enough to cut funding for Graf, it will also effect Gabby’s fundraising if contributers think the race is well in hand. Graf can run effectively with less. I’m not sure Gabby can.
I was able to see the methodology of the Star poll, the methodology of this poll was omitted. I would believe that the real number is far closer to the Star totals at this point for that reason alone.
If that is the case, Graf has already made up almost 10 points since last week according to Gabby’s poll. You think that might bring in some dollars to Graf if reported that way?
It was a mistake for Patty to release her selected poll information and it will probably prove to be so for Gabby as well.
September 21st, 2006 at 8:39 am
I think her get tough on the border ad was her first mistake. Just like Huffman she is playing right into Graf’s issue.
September 21st, 2006 at 8:55 am
Framer,
I am missing something … the Star poll had Giffords up by 10% on Graf prior to the primary. This poll, taken immediately after, shows her up by 19%.
I tend to agree the Star numbers might be closer, although it could be argued the later numbers of this poll show the effects of cross-over Republian’s voting for Giffords, etc. However, I don’t see _any_ way to present it as Graf “making up almost 10 points in a week”.
Losing almost 10 points in a week, yeah, I can see that.
September 21st, 2006 at 8:56 am
Phx Kid,
Well, it depends … regardless of whether I think the border is THE issue for this campaign, it’s without question AN important issue, and needs to be addressed. Might as well get something out there early rather than late.
September 21st, 2006 at 9:54 am
Phx Kid,
I agree that immigration is the issue in this election. That’s why Gabby will win handily. Poll after poll shows that Arizonans want practical solutions that are fair to taxpayers, not the build a fence only plan where the government would spend billions of dollars NOT addressing the 12 million people already here. Voters know that the issue is complex and requires real solutions and they know that the build a fence only crowd doesn’t have solutions.
Want proof? Goldwater lost. Graf got fewer votes in the 2006 primary than he did in 2004. And those were Republican primaries.
I hope immigration is THE issue in this election. Then the voters can show how out of touch Graf, Goldwater, Hayworth, and Kyl are on this issue.
September 21st, 2006 at 11:51 am
Slighty off topic, but I just want to say that I think we’re fortunate to have this much polling being made publicly available. Seems unusual in a Congressional race to have so many polls being conducted and publicized. I don’t remember there being so many polls in the district in 2004 or in other districts in which I’ve lived around the country prior to that. Probably because it’s such a tight and high-profile race, but it’s still nice to get these periodic snapshots of the electorate.