Saturday, September 16th, 2006...5:59 pm
Republicans Thinking Wishfully
The folks over at Sonoran Alliance are convinced that Janet Napolitano is going to get spanked in this election. I realize that as partisan activists, they have to convince themselves of this despite all evidence to the contrary.
They do have some numbers to back up their hypothesis, their argument goes beyond the “everyone that goes to the meetings I do and that think the way I do hates this person as much as I do” habit that activists on both sides fall into. They have some decent reasons to back this up, but I don’t think they are thinking about the whole story here.
One thing that they look at is registration numbers. They point to Republicans having 1,003,977 registered voters, whereas the Democrats have 847,490 registered voters. This means that Republicans have increased their margin by 24,737 votes, which dwarfs Napolitano’s 2002 winning margin of 11,819. Okay, except that it neglects to account for the 175,529 voters that have registered in other parties, or none at all, since the 2002 election. That’s seven times larger than the increase for the Republicans. Do those go to Len Munsil, or to Napolitano? Merely looking at the registration totals doesn’t tell you that. Plus, Napolitano demonstrated an ability to attract Republican votes before, and there is nothing to indicate that she has lost that ability.
Purely by voter registration totals, yes, a Republican should win every time. By that token, Tucson should have a Democratic mayor too. This assumes that every Republican agrees with Len Munsil enough to support him. I’m not sure that’s the case. For example, the PMA, Munsil’s big issue before he got in the governor’s race, looks to be losing by margins big enough that tell me that many Republicans aren’t even supporting this important part of his agenda.
They also consider that in 2002, there were ideological differences between the primary candidates, and this may have impared Matt Salmon’s ability to hold Republican voters together for the general election. Even with some of the goofiness that went on in this primary, this was not really a “factional” primary. There wasn’t a candidate energizing moderates that now would be looking at a Democratic alternative. Good point, except one may remember that the moderate was supposed to be John Greene. One of Greene’s stated reasons for getting out of the race was because he found that many moderate Republicans in the buisiness community were already supporting Napolitano. Just because they didn’t have a candidate in the primary, doesn’t necessarilly mean moderates will not be looking seriously at a Democrat in the general election.
But, keep wishing, fellas.
9 Comments
September 16th, 2006 at 7:26 pm
Tedski,
You and I must have read different stories. Nowhere did the author state that Napolitano was going to get spanked. In fact if you read carefully it seemed more like a warning to Munsil to get out of Maricopa and visit the border counties and pick up some of Don’s supporters. Or even visit a county fair.
The notion that moderate Republicans were already supporting Janet came from Greene. Consider the source. Hey if Goldwater was able to get his $5 forms in then Greene should have been able to. Maybe someone decided it was too much work to fight for the nomination and was looking for an excuse to get out.
Cute pig.
September 17th, 2006 at 7:46 am
Munsil is very articulate, extremely bright and stays on message with great discipline. He will be Janet’s equal in a debate. Janet has also been a “triangulator” on taxes, the border and vouchers. In a way, she had to be because of her precarious position as a governor dealing with GOP majorities in both houses of the Legislature, but that can come across in other, less flattering ways in a debate with someone who sticks to his own playbook with rigidity.
I like that Janet has played up the fact that Munsil’s experience lies mostly in being an advocate for an ideologically-based organization. People in both parties will ask themselves how Len Munsil can relate to and represent those who differ with him when he has been such a strident partisan for years. His lack of elected experience is NOT a factor, but it is relevant to ask how someone who has been a right-wing cheerleader for years can be the voice for all Arizonans.
Munsil benefits (as I have said in other contexts) from having a unified base that is excited about having him, Kyl and Graf heading the ticket in Southern Arizona, which could cut into traditional Democratic support, especially in border counties, but also in LD26 if Melvin and Jorgenson help to keep that conservative base excited and organized.
I certainly do hope Janet continues to run well in Maricopa County and that the turnout in Hispanic areas increases because she can not count on the large number of votes that came out of the Indian reservations four years ago when the gaming initiative was on the ballot. It would behoove Janet to continue to depict Munsil as extreme, but she should also talk a lot about what a Governor Munsil might do working with a Legislature that will still be contolled by the GOP. Thank back over the last four years about what would have been enacted rather than avoided if we had elected “Governor Salmon!” I shudder to consider that gloomy scenario and keeping both the past and the future in the mind of the voter will inevitably help Janet to run well in areas where the GOP is fractured, turn out minority voters and keep her own Democratic base pumped up and ready to do battle.
She will win, but we ought not think it will be easy or pretty.
September 17th, 2006 at 8:24 am
Rex,
As usual very articulate analysis. One note though, you do not need to worry about the conservative base in LD26 staying motivated and organized. That is a given.
September 17th, 2006 at 9:13 am
2002 General Election also included an indepedent run from Mahoney. He got 84,947 votes.
Napolitano got 566,284 and Salmon got 554,465. These voters are pretty much happy with Napolitano. She has taken moderate positions on education, taxes, and immigration that I think will bring these voters to the Democratic fold.
September 17th, 2006 at 10:48 am
A huge portion of indy voters are even to the left of what they perceive the Democratic Party as being. And, with candidates like Salmon in 2002, and people like Graf and Munsil this year, there’s no reason for traditionally disaffected conservatives from registering as independent between 2002 and this year.
Thus, those indys, I would suspect, are not Munsil’s lot of voters. Sorry, but Janet wins by eight to ten, considering she runs a half-way decent campaign.
September 17th, 2006 at 11:33 am
FOR MUNSIL, ‘NON-PROFIT’ IS VERY PROFITABLE
East Valley Tribune, Aug. 27, 2006
The Roman playwright Terence, and centuries later Charles Dickens, both get credited with saying, “Charity begins at home.” But in Len Munsil’s household, charity begins at home — and stays there. His motto: Nice work if you can get it, tax exempt.
Munsil’s prior gig, before deciding to run for governor, was heading the Center for Arizona Policy. CAP applied for and received what’s called recognition of tax-exempt status from the Internal Revenue Service. That means CAP gets all sorts of benefits under the tax code as a “social welfare organization.” (And it also means that CAP’s IRS filings are public records, available to any enterprising reporter, of which this market does not have a surplus.)
MONEY MATTERS
Heading CAP wasn’t charity work; between 1997 and 2004, Munsil’s compensation package exceeded $1.1 million, over $1 million in salary and another $117,000 in pension contributions. His salary in 2004 topped $200,000 — and that’s just his salary; over the years CAP also paid his wife more than $50,000 in salary and benefits.
A huge part of CAP’s “social welfare” and “community benefit” mission was paying Len Munsil; his compensation package was almost half of CAP’s total revenues in 1997, but he did grow the organization; despite his remuneration increasing by roughly 15 percent annually, his total compensation during the 1997-2004 period represented “only” an annual average of roughly 16 percent of CAP’s revenues.
This is pretty amazing stuff for a humble nonprofit. But let me predict Munsil’s reaction to accusations that he’s less than charitable: He’ll break out the “a Democrat attacked me!” card, as if the Lord spoke from Sinai saying, “Here are Ten Commandments — but for Republicans, they’re optional.”
But when it comes to doing little but being paid lots for it, Munsil may be the most competent of the Republican gubernatorial candidates, and that ain’t saying much. Quick: Name one thing any of the four GOP contenders has accomplished.
I’m waiting.
Sam Coppersmith
September 18th, 2006 at 6:48 pm
Ted, I understand that Flagstaff Mayor Joe Donaldson, a Repub who supported shrub and Renzi twice, has endorsed Janet.
He’s part of a small but significant group of moderate Repubs who were sickened by all the Repubs trying to out bigot one another during the primary.
September 18th, 2006 at 10:25 pm
I’ve always thought also that the system in Arizona was stacked heavily in favor of incumbents.
Examples include the ‘two-to-a-district’ representatives, which favors people who have been there and can run as a team, while not necessarily giving a challenger a fixed target, and the very late date of the primary. This last one is a real handicap to challengers, for example giving a candidate like Munsil only eight weeks (already down to seven) to hone in on the incumbent.
This usually works in favor of Republicans but in this case (as in the case of the Attorney General’s race) it works in favor of the Democrats.
If I could write the law, I’d split all the legislative districts in half (giving legislators a smaller and more compact constituency) and would move the primary up at least a month.
September 18th, 2006 at 10:31 pm
I might also add, anecdotally but probably as an accurate reflection of what is going on elsewhere, I’ve met a number of people- Democrats, Republicans and Independents who supported Salmon (or Mahoney, or didn’t vote) in 2002 but who now believe that the Governor has done a good enough job that they plan to vote for her this time. And that’s another flaw in these guys thinking– believing that everyone who voted for Salmon last time will vote for Munsil this time. That just isn’t so– and I strongly suspect that the number moving from Salmon to Napolitano is far larger than the number of any former Napolitano voters who plan to go the other way.