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The Question (Not a Moody Blues Song)

Quick question for all y’all: the polling in the CD 8 race seemed to be spot on. However, in the Republican race for governor, the polling was way off. Don Goldwater was supposed to have a 2-1 lead against Len Munsil. His Pima County number was negligible in one survey, but his final number down here was a shade over 40%.

So, why were the polls generally accurate in the CD 8 race, but so far off in the governor’s race?

2 Comments

  1. Chris DeRose wrote:

    Tedski

    I don’t think the polling on the Republican side was off. Don Goldwater was leading with slightly over 20%, and the poll showed an extremely high number of undecideds.

    Munsil, who did not enjoy Goldwater’s name recognition, had yet to send any direct mail or make any media buys.

    Given the totals on election day, I believe the polling in the governor’s race was accurate at the time the poll was taken.

    Friday, September 15, 2006 at 9:40 pm | Permalink
  2. phx kid wrote:

    If I remember correctly the CD 8 polling from the Tucson Weekly and Arizona Daily Star were done pretty close to election day.

    The only poll that I know of where there was a head to head comparison on the Republican side was from 7-27-06 by the Behavior Research Center. Not exactly up to date. There may have been a more recent poll but I did not see it.

    Friday, September 15, 2006 at 10:52 pm | Permalink