Thursday, July 20th, 2006...4:54 am
Huffman on the Teevee
For those that have been watching, Steve Huffman has had television ads up for a couple of days now. Huffman has the cash to run a better race than his main opponents, Mike Hellon and Randy Graf, but still needs to introduce himself to the voters.
The ad (which is unavailable on his website) is standard “Chamber of Commerce” Republican fare: I lowered taxes and balanced budgets. Also, he mentions supporting the “War on Terror,” a brave stand that risks alienating the Republican primary voters that support al-Quaeda.
The ad also mentions Jim Kolbe’s endorsement of Huffman. It does not feature it though, it merely flashes up a quote from Kolbe with his name barely visible. I would have thought he would feature this more prominently, but either he doesn’t think this is going to mean much, or he is saving Kolbe for later.
The ad doesn’t feature “red meat” for Republican voters concerned with immigration the way that Hellon’s ads do. Nor does it include any attacks on Graf, supposedly Huffman has polling that shows Graf vulnerable on a number of issues. But, this is a biography ad, and these are often free of specific issue proposals or attacks. He’s got plenty of money to run those later.
Does the “Chamber of Commerce” message carry the day this year? Hellon seems to have abandoned it entirely, although, despite what one poll supposedly said, it didn’t seem to work. Graf seems to be reaching the other way, he hired as his new campaign manager a former staffer with the National Federation of Independent Business.
Graf didn’t raise as much as Huffman, and I have yet to see a Graf ad, but those in the know still talk about him as a front runner. Does Huffman’s money mean he will be able to define Graf? Or, have people already made up their mind about him and this is a question of Huffman making himself the alternative? If Huffman is the alternative, are there enough moderate voters that will be so excited about Huffman that they show up?
12 Comments
July 20th, 2006 at 6:29 am
The question is will Graf be able to define Huffam?
Steve has a record and it’s one of big spending, status quo in education, pro-abortion, do-nothing on the border, wish-washy on the 2nd amendment. Talk about vulnerable.
July 20th, 2006 at 7:46 am
Status quo on education? You may want to go back and check on what he tried to do to the desegregation funds.
July 20th, 2006 at 8:09 am
This is going to be a fascinating race. I am not sure what Huffman has to do here. Grafs supporters seem to be vigilant and the border is the biggest issue here for Republicans. I wonder if the Chamber message goes very far these days since Republicans in our present Congress have built up deficits and even government programs. While things can change, a lot of Gallop polling tends to be showing the moderate part of the Republican party in the doldrums and even not so happy with their party. Will they stay home? Frankly, they normally stay home in primaries anyway. So what this tells me is that Republicans candidates should REALLY move to the right in this race…not that they wouldn’t in any primary…anyway.
Another interesting issue to me is the “tough on the border” ads by Hellon. Originally, there was concern by Click and the gang that Hellon might peel moderates away from Huffman. Maybe still true, but will he also peel off conservatives from Graf on this new tough on border stances. Those conservatives concerned about the people surrounding Graf might find a new home in Hellon.
Last, the Munsil effect. I have been saying this for a long time and few have engaged me on it. The GOP primary ticket will also have a Gov. race on the top of the ticket. Munsil supporters are pretty damned conservative and he seems in really good shape for the nomination. Who will his supporters vote for in this primary? Will he endorse someone?
Best!!!!
July 20th, 2006 at 8:37 am
Steve is definately in the game, but he will need to run a perfect campaign from here forward. His problem isn’t so much Graf as it is Hellon. Had he spent money before now, he could possibly have forced Hellon out of the race, now Hellon is set to capitolize on any attacks and attrition that Steve can score on Graf. If Hellon scores more than 15% in the primary, it will be very hard for Steve to win.
Additionally, Steve has a lot of money, but almost no grassroots whatsoever. He has been a no-show at many in not most of the handshake and baby-kissing events that are used to gain and reward grassroots, possibly reenforcing his image as distant and arrogant among the party faithful. At the events that he has attended, he has failed to bring many visible supporters with him (possibly the reason why he has skipped subsequent events).
So the two big questions are:
1. Can a seven week media blitz trump solid grassroots support in a primary?
2. Is a border enforcement first policy truly the overriding issue of the GOP primaries? If it is, Steve will not win. If other issues are just as important, advantage Huffman.
July 20th, 2006 at 8:57 am
Framer:
Good qusestions…and I would love to know your thoughts on my points above as well.
My thoughts on your questions:
1. Can a seven week media blitz trump solid grassroots support in a primary?
I don’t think so honestly. It will do a lot to raise his name rec. in the district no doubt, but he will have to either raise turnout in a Republican primary to get moderates out (which is going to be very hard according to what polls are saying now) OR he will have to move voters from Graf and Hellon to him. Equally hard without good attack ads and making himself reasonable to conservatives.
2. Is a border enforcement first policy truly the overriding issue of the GOP primaries? If it is, Steve will not win. If other issues are just as important, advantage Huffman.
Everything I am hearing from polling (which can change overnight) is that border enforcement is THE issue for Republicans…even in primaries in Iowa. Remember it was used effectly in the race to replace Cunningham. So where will that RNC money go and what will be the plan for this primary?
What other issues distinguish Huffman fron Graf or Hellon? Hellon can claim to be as moderate and now tough on the border as well. The only thing I can think of to distinquish them is the argument that Graf is too extreme…and doesn’t that play into the hands of social and border conservatives populating this primary?
July 20th, 2006 at 8:59 am
Oh…one thing I just thought of. If Huffman can assemble a machine the likes of what won the RTA plan in Tucson, then he could go hard after early ballots. Getting the lazy non-primary voter to vote by sending the thing in.
He’d have the money to do that.
July 20th, 2006 at 10:03 am
Sorry Tedski – read “opposed to vouchers” in place of “status quo on education” Either way he was not a leader on this issue.
July 20th, 2006 at 10:38 am
The problem with attack ads for Steve is that he already has a bad reputation in this area. Any hits that are devistating to Graf, will still look poorly on him as well.
In a two person race, going negative may have been effective. However, Steve allowed Hellon to position himself in the center between himself and Graf (although politically speaking Steve and Mike have just about the same stance on most issues). Hellon would receive the votes moved from Graf and the votes of those disgusted with Steve for going negative.
It was foolish at best for Steve to allow Mike to define himself unopposed for the past couple of months, arrogant at worst if he thought that Hellon no longer mattered without the Kolbe endorsement.
Also remember that Graf’s “extreme” views measure up to prop 200 which passed 57% (I believe) in this district in the General (not just Republicans) and with the Sensenbrenner Immigration Bill which is a huge winner with the Republican base nationally. He is solid pro-life and traditional marriage. Huffman is weak on all of these issues and any attacks on Graf could be seen by stong supporters of these causes as attacks on them, which could certainly energize Graf’s base more than diminish it.
Huffman made some poor campaign decisions early on and it will be interesting to see if money can bail him out. If it does, expect primary campaign strategy in this District to change dramitically in the future and be more based on fundraising rather than campaign events.
July 20th, 2006 at 2:13 pm
Roger,
As usual a good post with thoughtful points. The Munsil effect? As best I know Len is sitting out the CD8 race. Either way the contested Governor’s race is a plus for one candidate, Graf. Why?
First Goldwater is running on the border issue and has appeared many times with Randy. Don enthusiasts will overwhelmingly go for the original Strong Border candidate, Randy Graf.
As to Munsil his base is the evangelical vote. They will be drawn to the only pro-life candidate among the front-runners, Randy Graf.
Huffman is going to need every penny of his money.
July 20th, 2006 at 2:43 pm
The Phoenix Business Journal has a report on Dennis Hastert coming to visit the border this weekend.
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2006/07/17/daily46.html
Any word/speculation on which candidates will join him (if any)?
July 20th, 2006 at 3:09 pm
I completely agree with the points made by Phx Kid. The numbers don’t look good for either Hellon or Huffman. It stands to reason that the 43% Graf got against Kolbe two years ago will stick with him for the most part. The two major candidates (Hellon and Huffman) and the two minor candidates (Antenori and Jenkins) who oppose Graf do nothing but split the “anyone but Randy” vote.
If those in the GOP who oppose a Graf nomination in CD8 had been smart, they would have united behind ONE candidate to go against him. Since Hellon and Huffman couldn’t do that, they can go ahead and start writing their concession speeches.
It is also obvious that Graf best represents the majority views in today’s GOP. Huffman is getting punked on conservative blogs and would be targeted like Hershberger if he were still in LD26. Hellon got tossed out of his party post by the right-wingers a few years ago.
July 20th, 2006 at 3:56 pm
Rex
Mike Hellon should not yet be counted out. Let’s say that Huffman does not gain traction. There is still time for some anybody-but-Graf money to flow to Mike. He has stayed above the fray and already has the party stalwarts behind him. No one really liked Steve, they just thought he could beat Randy. If that does not appear to be happening don’t look for a lot of loyalty to Steve.
Steve may have a few vulnerabilities but for the record he would not have been targeted like Hershberger. The simple truth is that Pete is not a Republican by any definition of the word. He does not even rise to the level of “in name only.” Dear old Pete is a Classic Liberal. He should have switched parties when he had a chance but now his time is up.
http://www.lisalovallo.com/
http://www.electdavidjorgenson.com/
http://www.carolsomers.com/