Thursday, June 29th, 2006...7:19 am
Paul Begala on the CD 5 Race
Paul Begala on Blitz Woofer’s Situation Room yesterday:
WOLF BLITZER: So do the Tom Tancredos, the [Jim] Sensenbrenners, do they lose as a result of Chris Cannon’s win?
PAUL BEGALA: Yes! If, (pause) I love it when Republicans fight, it’s the Neanderthals versus the Cro-Magnons, OK? And so what happened here is the slightly more moderate position, the Bush position, on immigration prevailed. I didn’t just prevail, it prevailed, as Tony [Snow, White House Press Secretary] said, by 12 points in a Republican only primary in Provo, Utah! Well, if bein’, if having the mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging position can’t win you a primary in Provo, it’s not going to save like say, J.D. Hayworth in Arizona who has a tough Democratic opponent.
Okay, here are some possible ways to compare Cannon’s win to Hayworth’s situation:
Cannon was running in, what can be argued, is one of the most conservative Republican constituencies in the country, but won despite a more “moderate” stance on immigration, generally supporting President George Bush’s plan. If a hard core anti-immigration conservative with that much money could still lose a Republican primary by a pretty decent margin (56-44), how good of an issue is this to run on?
Of course, the counterspin is that the candidate, businessman John Jacob, lost for any number of reasons. Bush campaigned on Cannon’s behalf, Jacob often equivocated on his anti-immigration position and towards the end, Jacob made some bizarre statements about some, uh, paranormal help that Cannon was getting for his campaign. (I’m sure that the claim that Lucifer was on board with him was unrelated to Bush helping Cannon)
(Conservatives were unhappy with Jacob’s campaign. Check the link for a nickname for Jacob I wish I’d thought of first)
Also, despite this district being infra-red, it had been represented by a Democrat, Bill Orton, until 1996. One of the other things to consider is that Utah has a very high percentage of people who have spent time in other countries because of the large number of young Mormons that do foreign missionary duty. It is probably harder to stir up anti-immigrant sentiment among folks who have spent time abroad.
Still, this was a Republican primary where the true believers vote, and the anti-immigrant (and anti-Bush) position did not carry the day.
I heard a few snippets from a Cannon-Jacob debate a couple of weeks back. When it came to the immigration issue, Cannon was a master of finding the inconsistencies in Jacob’s rhetoric and policy proposals. Harry Mitchell would be well advised to look up the transcripts.
I don’t think that this result is the equivalent of the sinking of the Titanic, as some in Mitchell’s camp seem to be selling it, but it can’t be good news for Hayworth, or for like minded candidates like Randy Graf.
NB - I have tried to stay away from this all to easy “Red-Blue” metaphor. I went ahead and used it here. I appologize to my readers, friends and family, but most of all, God and my country.
Oh, the “Blitz Woofer” thing is a tribute to Mike Royko and his creation, Slats Grobnik.
4 Comments
June 29th, 2006 at 7:11 pm
Apples to Oranges my friend. CA-50 is far more applicable than the Utah race.
1. Cannon is a five term incumbent. Graf and Hayworth are not challenging an incumbent. The fact that Orton (D) stayed as long as he did was based on him being an incumbent.
2. It would be more appropriate to use AZ-8 two years ago as a better example. Imagine if Graf had the money that Jacob had in this year’s climate. Think he would have improved on that 12 point margin in the Primary against Kolbe?
3. Cannon and Jacob were both Mormons running in a Mormon district. This alone makes the race different than any other race in the country. The dynamics of this are not really comparable.
4. Especially when Jacobs implied that Cannon’s campaign could be somehow associated with the power of the Devil. Mormons just aren’t going to take that about another Mormon unless it about is Harry Reid.
5. Provo, Utah is not Southern Arizona. If this were being used to forecast the illegal immigration vote in Idaho or Kentucky, it may be more useful. This is a border state. No one should have to point this out to Begala.
6. Begala is and always has been a blubbering idiot. If he says it, you can safely place money the other direction. He is pretty much the male Susan Estrich. Republicans hate James Carville, but recognize that he is dangerous, and often can see the trends. Begala on the other hand is a clown.
This was more about Jacob than about immigration. Anybody telling you different is trying to sell you something. The only big mistake Tancredo made was tying his banner to this particular race due to the other dynamics that led to this result. He would have been better off pouring the money into Graf’s campaign as the odds of success are far better at this point.
June 29th, 2006 at 9:03 pm
This is the most amazing misrepresentation of what happened. From what I understand none other than Sensenbrenner endorsed Cannon. How can this be a loss for Sensenbrenner if the guy he endorsed won? Wolf’s question is a false premise even before Begala opens his mouth.
Cannon was not only endorsed by President and Laura Bush but also by a lot of elected officials in the state. Plus he was the incumbent. Harry is not an incumbent for CD5; he plays the role of Jacob.
I know Harry has the endorsement of Woods and a few other has-been Republican moderates. I don’t think he will be getting Bush to support him like he supported Cannon.
Cannon actually has a fairly strong record in favor of doing something about the border. This race seems more about a dispute between Tancredo and other Republicans in the House. Jacob lost because he played the border issue against a congressman that was actually fairly strong on the border. I would not compare Cannon’s position to that of the presidents as Begala did. Cannon did not support the Senate bill on the border.
This would have been news if a moderate abortion on demand, gay marriage supporting homosexual had won the election in Provo. Given the relatively close positions of the two candidates and the fact that they were splitting hairs on the border it does not even rise to the level of news.
This election has absolutely nothing to do with CD8 unless the desert surrounding Provo has been trashed by border crossers and several Provo ranchers are tired of having their property destroyed and land trampled.
June 30th, 2006 at 9:30 am
Of course I would recommend that the Democreatic candidates in Arizona take Begala to heart and adopt the Senate Bill as their approach to immigration (or even better, get to the left of it).
That and sticking it to Walmart. With that platform Democrats would be unstoppable.
June 30th, 2006 at 2:23 pm
Uh, the district that Orton represented was on the whole further south, and it shared a lot of territory with the district that Matheson represents today. Utah is all extremely red, but southern Utah has been known to be more friendly to Democrats than the rest of the state.
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