Tuesday, June 27th, 2006...9:54 am
Ron Drake Campaign Update
Former Avondale Mayor Ron Drake was spotted at McMahon’s Prime Steakhouse meeting with local Republican leaders to plan strategy for his congressional race against Raúl Grijalva. One of the people he met with was one-time-talked-about Republican CD 8 candidate Christine Olson.
One of the topics discussed was how to win over the Hispanic vote on the West and South sides of Tucson. Well, one way to do it may be to actually visit the district, and to talk to people who live there. Meeting over at the corner of Swan and Fort Lowell with people who wouldn’t be caught dead at a South or West Side restaurant probably isn’t an effective way to campaign in CD 7. But what would I know?
Heck, Christine Olson is still listed as National Committee Woman for the Pennsylvania Republican party. I’m not sure what special local expertise she has aside from being married to Lute Olson. Maybe Drake thinks that Susquehanna County is part of the district.
The least I can say is at least McMahon’s is in the city limits. Most of the time when Maricopa County Republicans grace our area, the closest they come to Tucson is a foothills country club. Too bad Lute’s old restaurant didn’t stay open; it was in CD 7.
A fundraising letter went out on Drake’s behalf from Tom & Diane McCarthy to folks affiliated with WESTMARK, an economic development authority in the West Valley. In it, Drake touts bringing NASCAR to the area, among other things. But the most interesting part is his “conservative voting estimate.” This isn’t a poll, but his view of the scenario that lets him win this race. It doesn’t actually give him a win; he gives numbers that give him a tie vote. I guess he’s hoping he wins on penalty kicks:
La Paz: Drake 2,800 (62%), Grijalva 1,800 (39%)
Maricopa: Drake 15,000 (58%), Grijalva 11,000 (42%)
Pima: Drake 42,000 (42%), Grijalva 58,000 (58%)
Pinal: Drake 8,000 (67%), Grijalva 4,000 (33%)
Santa Cruz: Drake 4,000 (44%), Grijalva 5,000 (56%)
Yuma: Drake 24,000 (60%), Grijalva 16,000 (40%)
Total: Drake 95,800 (50%), Grijalva 95,800 (50%)
The table also includes John McCain’s 2004 vote totals, I guess to show that this is “doable.” This number is only useful if Drake thinks that somehow Grijalva will drop out in favor of Stuart Starky. The funny thing is, the “esitmate” assumes Drake will get more votes in the Pinal County portion of the district than McCain did. Given that McCain is the Republicans’ top vote getter, fat chance of that happening. Drake also assumes he will get twice as many votes in Yuma County than did 2002 candidate Ross Heib, who was from there and had been elected there too.
I realize that part of campaigning is convincing folks you will win. You can’t get too many contributions saying “Grijalva will beat me like a gong.” But, this just seems delusional.
NB - This Diane McCarthy who sent this letter, is she the same Diane McCarthy played chambermaid for APS and SRP on the Corporation Commission in the 1980’s?
13 Comments
June 27th, 2006 at 1:48 pm
At least they went to a pretty good steakhouse.
June 27th, 2006 at 2:44 pm
Yes - it’s the same Diane McCarthy.
Why Drake thinks that anyone from Southern Arizona or Yuma will even look at him is the mystery. Unlike most AZ congressional districts, this is one where the Phoenix candidate is actually at a disadvantage. Most voters don’t even know that the districts extends all the way to Avondale - and is anyone from Tucson actually going to vote for someone who wants to take credit for Phoenix getting another event? Yeah right.
If he could take credit for former Tucsonan Robert Sarver buying the Suns and moving training camp to McKale he might get some traction.
June 27th, 2006 at 2:47 pm
Didn’t Raul have a fundraiser here one time?
June 27th, 2006 at 3:43 pm
So candidates for office aren’t allowed to strategize or eat food outside their district?
I think we have bigger things to rip Drake with than this … in fact this seems pretty petty.
June 27th, 2006 at 3:47 pm
And whoever saw them there even reported on what they were discussing?
Sounds like maybe next time they should meet at somebody’s house.
June 27th, 2006 at 3:51 pm
You say the table assumes that ‘Drake will get more votes in the Pinal portion of the district than McCain did.’ But I don’t see Pinal listed in your chart.
June 27th, 2006 at 4:14 pm
Eli- I’m sorry, I forgot to include the Pinal County numbers. I’ve added them.
Mr T- He can eat and strategize anywhere he wants…we have both worked for candidates who think they can win by talking to “key people” who will take care of things, I guess he thinks he can win this this way rather than talking to actual voters. I wouldn’t have even noted it, ‘cept it is the closest thing to a “public event” that he has had in Tucson thus far.
June 27th, 2006 at 5:17 pm
Why did you emphasize this being OUT of District 7 with a huge map?
Do you even live in CD7 Tedski?
June 27th, 2006 at 7:34 pm
I live one block outside of CD 7. Did you want to come over or something?
June 27th, 2006 at 8:55 pm
Why did you emphasize this being OUT of District 7 with a huge map?
June 28th, 2006 at 8:53 am
I didn’t think the map was that big. I remember in Blogger College that they said that visuals were important.
June 28th, 2006 at 9:12 am
Ok Tedski- your missing my point.
You made a big deal about Drake meeting at McMahons OUTSIDE of District 7. Raul has had meetings here and has even attended a fundraiser for himself at this very steak house. Why is it ok for Raul to meet and dine (and fundraise) at McMahons but if Drake does it, he is out of touch with the District?
June 28th, 2006 at 11:02 am
Anonymous-
This is the first “event” of Drake’s I have even heard of down here. He hasn’t had, as far as I know, any sort of events on the South or West sides of town.
This seems to follow a Republican campaign pattern down here: have a few press conferences, hobknob with the foothills types, then wonder why no one in Tucson proper wants to vote for you.
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