Thursday, March 30th, 2006...9:10 pm
Zogby Poll Results are Really Accurate, Unless They Aren’t
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Word is out that Zogby will be releasing numbers that show Jim Pederson within five points of Jon Kyl.
The trouble is, this is the same methodology that showed former Department of Administration party planner Don Goldwater nearly beating Governor Janet Napolitano a few months ago.
I’ll see if the Republican bloggers that got so excited about the Goldwater poll tout this one the same way. Spider-sense tells me they won’t. But I never got bitten by a radioactive spider, so what would I know?
3 Comments
March 31st, 2006 at 7:30 am
I have been suprised to see Jon Kyl recently back a “tough enforcement” AND a “guest worker program.” Fascinating that he has moved so much and so fast. I bet we are going to see a lot more shifts in good ole Kyl as the election approaches. I think the man is starting to see that this is not a good year for Republicans.
Oh…but I give him props for one thing. He appears to shadow our President on about every policy…and a guest worker program is just another echoing of the Pres.
March 31st, 2006 at 12:28 pm
So we all question the methodology … fine. The thing to look at on polls like this however are the trendlines … and the lines show that Kyl is mid-dive.
I go more into detail on this over on my blog but the short of it is — if they poll the same way each time, even if you don’t like the way they do it you can still look at the poll over time to judge potential changes in public opinion … and the public finally is starting to know THE OTHER JON and they don’t seem to like him.
I think the timing is pretty good for Pederson to nail Kyl something good.
March 31st, 2006 at 3:27 pm
I predict that Kyl will win by more than 8% come November 7.
If you go by the trend then Janet is toast. I am not predicting that, just demonstrating the fallacy of Mr. T’s logic.
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