Saturday, March 11th, 2006...7:40 am
Huffman v Hellon: UFC Cage Action!
When I see internecine conflicts between the pachyderms, I have the same feeling my mom did when she was watching a World Cup match between France and Italy a few years ago: can I root for both of them to lose?
Well, in this case I can, and it’s a big possibility. Of course, it means that Randy Graf wins.
The big fight on the CD 8 Republican card is between Mike Hellon and Steve Huffman to be the moderate alternative to Graf. Mainstream Republican leaders, both locally and nationally, are worried about a Graf victory, since they believe it is as good as handing the seat back to the Democrats. Even Jim Kolbe has voiced his concern about a Graf victory, leading some to wonder if Kolbe would endorse a Democrat against him if he were nominated. The trouble is, with two strong moderate candidates, Graf could easily come out of the primary as the nominee.
The pressure is on for one of the two to drop out. When I say one of the two, I mean Mike Hellon. The powers that be see Huffman as a stronger candidate, conservative enough to be credible among primary voters, but without the more extreme rhetoric and record of Graf. Word is out that Kolbe and John McCain have been asking Hellon to drop out. Hellon hasn’t made any indications that he will drop out, however.
Some are saying that this is personal. Last year, the term-limited Huffman let it be known that he was interested in the state senate seat still occupied by Hellon’s ex-wife, Toni Hellon. This isn’t exactly the sort of thing that endears you to the Hellon family, and it isn’t the sort of thing you would do if you were on very good terms in the first place.
The conflict has stayed out of the press for the most part. A couple of weeks ago, however, during the vote to extend the life of the “TIF” district for Rio Nuevo, there were comments in an article in the Arizona Daily Star from Sen. Hellon questioning the way the deal was cut. Huffman has taken the lead on the Rio Nuevo issue and it was seen by some as a way for her to undercut her ex’s opponent. Some Hellon supporters think that House Speaker Jim Weiers’s support for Rio Nuevo is only his way of weighing in on Huffman’s side. This ignores the fact that Weiers had been a co-sponsor of the origninal TIF legislation years ago.
Does that sound totally obscure? Does that sound like people reading way too much into things? Yeah, but that gives you an idea of the schoolyard backbiting that we’ll see more of over the next few months.
They don’t come together now, and they’ll have to come together around Graf after the primary.
4 Comments
March 12th, 2006 at 9:06 am
Adding to what Tedski has said…I have heard that some of big timer, big money Republicans in town have also been working hard to back Huffman and to back off Hellon.
My attempt at being a prognositcator. What I would look for, of course, is the next reporting date for finances from the FEC. You might look for name like “what the computer mouse does when you make it work” and that “very precious stone” that so many cherish from Africa.
Afterward, I would look for arguments that Mr. Hellon just can’t compete with that kind of money.
March 12th, 2006 at 11:07 am
Mike Hellon is a former national committeeman and a very shrewd person. He is also quite principled and doubtless made the decision to enter this race based on both his analysis of his chances and the thought that he could make a difference if he won. If he dropped out, he would be admitting that he had miscalculated in the first area and that someone else could do a better job. Couple those two areas of consideration with the fact that both Hellons actively dislike Huffman and I can’t see him dropping out. Besides, you can win that primary with 35-40% of the vote. Hellon has as much a chance of doing that as Huffman in a district where both of them likely have equal name ID. But…I don’t think either one can beat Graf even if the other one drops out. Today’s Arizona GOP favors a candidate such as Graf and he will be their nominee.
March 12th, 2006 at 8:34 pm
Rex, nice rationale and I am glad that you think he will stick this one out. I know people on that side of the fence that want him out badly. It will be nice to see two candidates sticking it to our local Repub. establishment…both Hellon and Graf.
I agree with you about Graf…and with that said, I see this as a pick up right now for the demos, but it is early.
Roger
March 12th, 2006 at 9:03 pm
Appreciate the feedback, Roger. I am, actually, a former Republican and know both of these candidates from my tenure in the GOP. They are BOTH fundamentally decent people and I especially appreciate (since I work in the public schools) what Huffman has done to support education, often in opposition to those in the Maricopa-led House leadership. However, they are both doctrinaire conservatives on most other issues. They would both be more right-wing than Kolbe, although Gentleman Jim did a good job in disguising himself as a “moderate” by voting in favor of most pro-choice positions, supporting the National Endowment for the Arts and supporting gay rights while accumulating a horrendous record in the areas of education, the environment, taxes and health care. Graf would be Trent Franks with patent-leather hair and that IS the candidate who triumphs in today’s GOP. “Moderates” thought they could find some rapprochement with these folks, but watch how many primaries “moderates” win from here on out.