Monday, February 27th, 2006...8:16 pm
Hayworth in Trouble? Gee, That’s Too Bad.
Daily Kos and Wactivist are reporting some internal DCCC numbers that look very bad for J. D. Hayworth. I know, it will drive all of us into a funk.
Here are some numbers:
Larry King 37%
Rep. J. D. Hayworth 44%Sen. Harry Mitchell 43%
Hayworth 42%Sen. Chuck Blanchard 41%
Hayworth 40%
What the heck is that all about?
King is an attorney and political activist that ran against Hayworth once before. I love the guy, but there has been some grousing from party higher-ups about his candidacy. Ironically, the fact that King’s numbers show Hayworth to be so vulnerable will be what leads to the party recruiting another candidate.
At the Democratic State Convention on Saturday, I heard some buzz about recruiting Mitchell to run. Mitchell is incredibly popular in Tempe, having the sort of connection with citizens that most politicians would envy. Mitchell is currently the chair of the State Democratic Party. This might create some temporary chaos while the deck chairs get reshuffled, but I think the party could handle that if it meant driving Hayworth into early retirement.
Chuck Blanchard? He last ran for office in 1994, when he lost a race for Congress against Matt Salmon. Blanchard had also talked about running for Attorney General in 1994 and 2002. Given how long it has been since he has been in the public eye, it is interesting to see that even he beats Hayworth.
I knew Blanchard even before he was first elected to office; he’s a hell of a guy. He also would make a fantastic congressman, he had been clerk to Sandra Day O’Connor, counsel to the US Army, the state’s first director of Homeland Security. The guy is incredibly intelligent, but even better, he’s the sort of intelligent that is curious and likes to ask questions.
Hayworth has been using immigration the way some ogre in a bad fantasy movie uses a club. Obviously, it doesn’t get a politician as far as the conventional wisdom says it does. Hayworth has always been a blowhard, but he was a blowhard that painted himself as good for his constituency. That Hayworth hasn’t been in political trouble for a long time. This new Mojado-hater mouthbreather persona doesn’t seem to work for him. Don “Still No Supporters” Goldwater and Randy Graf ought to listen. Then again, I hope they don’t.
NB - I suppose it is possible that Chuck Blanchard has been confused with more recent candidate and giant killer Jay Blanchard. Then again, it is probably more possible that people are confusing Larry King with, uh, Larry King.
11 Comments
February 27th, 2006 at 9:56 pm
I love Mitchell, but like Jim Pederson said Saturday, running for Senate is one way to get out of being party chair. And yeah, I’d love to see Hayworth go. He’s never been the kind of unbeatable Republican stalwart that people in Washington seem to think he is.
February 27th, 2006 at 11:00 pm
I heard from several people about the poll. Apparently after hearing candidate descriptions and position statements, King was actually UP 44-38. Granted, it was a partisan poll so the descriptions were probably skewed, but…
February 28th, 2006 at 12:19 am
This would the year to get rid of JD.
I just wish I had the money to run.
February 28th, 2006 at 8:49 am
What is up with that indeed!
The DCCC runs Chuck Blanchard’s name against Hayworth but not last year’s candidate who won a whole 34% of the vote????
Does anyone know why the DCCC is ignoring Elizabeth Rogers?
February 28th, 2006 at 10:37 am
Well, as someone who loves Harry Mitchell and would support him in anything he did. This one does get personal.
I think before all the political prognosticators should take a step back and first ask Marianne Mitchell if she is willing to give up her husband for Washington D.C before moving forward with anything else.
Then ask Harry because I’m pretty sure he would rather be at home in Tempe playing with the grandkids than playing with the 2 year olds in Washington.
Then the rather personal fact that I’d rather have our senior senator, senior mayor and senior city counselor here at home taking care of things here and now and now leading the Arizona Democratic Party than playing with those idjits in D.C.
And and mean that. You have to be crazy to run for Congress and put up with those people. We’ve seen one to many Arizonans go to Washington and come home disillusioned and distraught about what goes on there. From both parties and all ideologies.
February 28th, 2006 at 12:52 pm
Anonymous, I have a blog: http://e-rog.blogspot.com
go there and taunt me.
I also got 38% of the vote thank you very much.
February 28th, 2006 at 5:37 pm
ms. rogers
huh? how is asking why your name was not polled instead of a guy who hasn’t been in elected office in over a decade “taunting” you?
it’s a legitimate question that was asked of anyone who knows the answer.
a little sensitive, no?
February 28th, 2006 at 8:01 pm
1. Larry King is “the” candidate in CD-5 and that’s the end of it. Larry has been working his tail off for two years helping other candidates and putting together his grassroots infrastructure. Now with these numbers out he can raise the money to actually beat Hayworth.
Larry King is one of the most talented Congressional candidates in the county. Some very powerful National organizations have recognized his talent and tried to get him to move to any number of districts where they had a shot at a seat, lots of candidates willing to run but with no real talent.
Anyone who moves in now or anyone who is seen to be activally recruiting other candidates to run in CD-5 will have to answer to the grassroots community in our district. This community by the way is not made of the fringe. We are in fact, all PC’s, disrtict chairs, state committee members,county party officers and we are organized. Don’t even try it! Larry King is our candidate-and we will thwart any attempt to challange him. Larry was the only one with the guts to run when it looked like it was impossible to win this seat. Anyone who jumps in now is just an opportunist with no vision—the exact type that will lose a race if it’s a tough one.
So send Larry some money and let’s all stop speculating.
February 28th, 2006 at 8:57 pm
I would be very careful about these poll numbers given the 44% Rep/28% Dem makeup of the district. But hey, knock yourselves out.
February 28th, 2006 at 9:37 pm
Yeah…Phx Kid…advantages advantages…the problem is that Hayworth appears pretty corrupt. Is that something you can support…really support? I don’t expect you to give up your values and principles to vote Democrat (not being snide…I really don’t expect that), but I also wouldn’t expect you to give them up to support someone like Hayworth either.
My conclusion, I think that smart people like you…and other Republicans might skip voting FOR this guy.
February 28th, 2006 at 10:53 pm
OK so JD has some issues to work on. I do not live in his district; if I did I would fall into a coma during one of his speeches and miss voting for him.
I did attend a Republican luncheon where he spoke for an hour and said nothing of substance. Everyone just loved it. I left stunned. He yet may work his magic once more. Ever heard the term “sophistry.”
Either way the numbers will still be hard to overcome.
Has JD been there long enough to get the full House pension? I do not know why anyone stays past that point. They have given themselves a real sweet deal.
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