Thursday, February 9th, 2006...1:29 pm
That Much? Naw, can’t be.
A new Rasmussen poll shows Janet Napolitano ahead of her opponents by ridiculous margins. Is there anything like a mercy rule in politics?
Don Goldwater (still no supporters!) seems to do the best of the bunch, he only gets whupped 54% - 23%. Other candidates tested were John Greene (54% - 27%) and Jan Smith-Florez (55% - 36%). Interestingly, Len Munsil, who leads in fundraising was not tested.
The poll was taken in mid-January, before the current bruhaha over English Language Learners was in full flower. Polling by local media outlets showed that at the very least, Napolitano was unhurt by the fracas, and the fight may have even helped her standing. Of course, the Republicans are still convinced that the people are on their side on this. The issue polls really well for them at Republican district clubs.
I am still cautious about polls when I can’t see any details (crosstabs are only available to Rasmussen clients). The only other detail given is that Napolitano’s approval rating is at 65%, which is nearly unchanged over the past few months. Goldwater has the highest approval rating of the Republicans that were tested.
This keeps up, I may end up feeling sorry for them.
6 Comments
February 9th, 2006 at 2:10 pm
Here’s my question. If she’s got an approval rate of 65%, why are only 54% of those same people saying they’ll vote for her.
Sounds like something’s up there.
February 9th, 2006 at 2:16 pm
Pretty common phenomenom. Approval often doesn’t match votes, and is usually a bit higher. People may approve of the job she does, but are waiting to see what the other candidates say before they make up their minds to vote for her. It is also possible that people approve of her and approve of a Republican that they want to vote for.
Or, it could be a nefarious plot pushed by commies and long hairs.
February 9th, 2006 at 4:28 pm
January poll numbers are meaningless, as are any other poll numbers - except for the one in November. I hope the Governor wins re-election, but also hope that she (and her campaigners) don’t get over-confident.
Having issued the pro-forma cautionary statement, I have to say that there’s no reason for her not to kick some tail in November.
With her popularity, I wish she was running against Kyl, not Pederson, though.
February 9th, 2006 at 5:02 pm
What concerns me is that some Democrats will presume that Napolitano will win and don’t realize that we have a ton of work to do in this state, including putting front and center a compelling, reality-based, cohesive progressive platform to attract voters. I think some Tucsonans forget that we live in a sea of red/purple.
February 9th, 2006 at 5:13 pm
CC Burro:
You are right about that. And even if she did hold on to these margins, we need to get her some help in legislative races. If the GOP gets about three more seats in the legislature, it won’t matter how many votes the governor gets, because they would be able to force their stuff through anyway.
February 10th, 2006 at 1:13 am
Just passing through.