Saturday, January 21st, 2006...6:02 pm
Patricia Bryers Gelenberg Cougar Mellencamp Griffith Joyner Kersey Weiss Von Habsburg
Late last month, Patty Weiss went about legally changing her name to Patricia Gelenberg Weiss. I don’t think she needs any fancy polling to tell her that fewer people know her as Patricia Bryers Gelenberg than by her nom de guerre.
This isn’t unprecedented, by the way, I don’t think anyone would have voted for an obscure suburban mayor named John George Janos for Governor of Minnesota if it had been his birthname on the ballot. But Jesse Ventura, that was a name they knew.
There is even a local precedent. A certain John Scott Ulm ran for county supervisor and even served in the state legislature for a time, but needed a name change so he could be recognized as the local celebrity he was. He ran for office as John “C.” Scott Ulm. Yep, John C. Scott was in the legislature. Even stranger, he was a Democrat then.
Somebody asked me the other day if this will cause any problems with election law. No, the only thing that would is if she has collected a lot of signatures already. Given that she doesn’t have many volunteers yet, I doubt this.
And speaking of fancy polling, people have been e-mailing me for my opinions on that poll. A couple of y’all have been snickering at me for choosing a candidate that, in their estimation, is not “winning.” I didn’t realize that my job is to only support front runners. If that’s the case, I’d be all about Jon Kyl.
It doesn’t take a political expert to know that a figure like Weiss would poll really well. She is a beloved figure in the community, and many of us are still angry about the shabby treatment that she recieved on her exit from KVOA. I’ve asked a number of people to send me details about the poll, and all I get is the same data. Well, it ain’t data, it’s a press release. Frankly, it doesn’t tell me anything except what Weiss’s campaign wants us to know.
I have no doubt that Weiss is a formidable candidate, and what I see in the polling numbers reflects that. However, what sort of people were polled? Are these likely primary voters? I would imagine (I have to imagine, since I don’t see numbers) that a sitting legislator like Gabrielle Giffords would do better among likely primary voters, and a candidate with a strong grassroots campaign, such as the one that Jeff Latas has already built, will do well in a primary but numbers collected in January can’t measure that.
One thing that I do find interesting though: in match ups versus Giffords or Weiss, Randy Graf gets the same percentage, 34%. This may be an indication that even against a candidate that is lesser known, he doesn’t gain any votes. Does he have any appeal outside of Republican base voters? At the very least, there are obviously many Republicans willing to wait and hear from the Democratic nominee before making up their mind.
The Star quoted Latas’s reaction to the numbers:
“This was a name-recognition poll,” said Jeff Latas, a former Air Force pilot and Gulf War veteran who was among the first candidates in the race.
“I could have paid thousands of dollars for a similar poll with a slant toward national security and I think it would be obvious who would have the advantage.”
As to his first point, yes, he’s right. Any poll this early is on name recognition. Polls this early in the 2002 Democratic primary in District 7 showed former Senator Luis Gonzales doing very well, mostly because people didn’t notice that his name didn’t end in a “z.” Latas should worry about Weiss’s name ID, but his campaign is not going to be based on grassroots campaigning, not celebrity.
The second objection is a canard that I hear from some candidates and others who don’t understand the way polling works. A firm that “slants” numbers is going to quickly be out of business. You can bet that the actual polling data includes all sorts of data that may or may not be favorable to Weiss. She chose to release the bits that are easilly digested by local media and that are favorable to her, but I severely doubt that the firm was paid to make a poll that would make her look good. This is because such a poll would be useless in planning strategy for a campaign. There are much better ways of spending money that phonying up polling numbers just to get a press release.
If anyone has more data from this poll, and not another press release, I’d really love to look at it.
NB - I already am reading comments from Republicans saying that Weiss is some sort of egomaniac for thinking she is qualified to go from TV to congress. Why wasn’t this a problem with J. D. Hayworth? Oh wait, he is an egomaniac. Bad example. Sorry.
17 Comments
January 21st, 2006 at 8:37 pm
As I mention here, I bet that Weiss’s own poll shows that among likely Democratic general election voters that know both Giffords and Weiss, Giffords has higher favorabilities.
January 21st, 2006 at 8:51 pm
André-
Any thoughts on Graf’s numbers in the poll?
January 21st, 2006 at 9:23 pm
No sophisticated thoughts! I’m as in the dark as you are about the numbers we’re not seeing in the Weiss poll. For example, I don’t know what Graf’s name recognition is, though I would have to think it’s pretty high given that he’s run in the district before.
It seems to me the conventional wisdom is that Graf is too out there to be the Republican’s best choice to hold on to the seat. The Weiss poll appears to reinforce the conventional wisdom. Kolbe got 63 percent of the vote in the 2002 general and 60 percent in the 2004 general. If, indeed, Graf’s name recognition is high and still nearly 30 percent of the voters that pulled the trigger for Kolbe can’t do the same for Graf, that doesn’t bode well for the Republicans or for Graf.
Of course, Graf’s signature issue - immigration - may be at the forefront of the debate come November and who knows how out there he’ll seem then? Especially given the tough immigration talk coming from unexpected places.
January 22nd, 2006 at 12:06 am
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January 22nd, 2006 at 10:21 am
Roger,
I would argue that not only is trying to bring new voters to the polls expensive, it’s rarely effective. To me, getting people to vote for the first time is a public good - a civic responsibility - but it’s no way to win election. It takes a lot of time, effort and money to change non-voters’ aggregate behavior, and even then the only thing that will change it significantly is some huge issue, a sense that voting is part of some great cause. It’s possible but not likely that this congressional election is going to mean that much to non-voters.
Getting voters to vote by mail is a whole different deal. It’s expensive because it requires a lot of elbow grease - figuring out who you want to vote early, getting them VBM applications, following up to make sure they get their applications and then their ballots in, etc. But it’s also effective because you’re locking in your vote early, often before things have gotten really hot and heavy on the airwaves.
AP
January 22nd, 2006 at 10:58 am
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January 22nd, 2006 at 11:24 am
On a little different note, I wonder if Weiss has anything to learn from the the congressional run of George Clooney’s father…
January 22nd, 2006 at 12:59 pm
How about the obvious question: what name did they poll? Patricia Gelenberg Weiss? Or Patty Weiss?
And I’m going to lay out a $100 bet right now, for any sucker stupid enough to take it, that the name that got a 65% favorability rating in this poll is the same name that delivered the TV news for 30 years in this town.
Give me a break - Patricia Gelenberg Weiss? Who the hell’s that?
January 22nd, 2006 at 5:54 pm
I had asked this in another post and it went unanswered. I’ll try it again, or maybe this is a question that can’t be answered?
Can anyone answer how Gabby has delivered for Southern Arizona and LD28 in her years in the AZ Senate? Every one talks about her record, but has she really brought home the bacon to LD28/S. AZ???
January 22nd, 2006 at 6:51 pm
I’m pretty sure that Secretary of State Brewer does NOT support vote-by-mail. I wonder why? Hmmmm.
January 22nd, 2006 at 10:02 pm
Your comments about bacon to L28/Southern AZ are lame. State legislators, especially Dems, do enough by protecting the State from the right-wing wackos out the East Valley in Maricopa County. She voted in support of the Gov’s budget when in the Senate. You are grasping at straw with those comments. As if this State allowed pork for legislative districts, can barely get base level funding for education and that’s a fight.
January 22nd, 2006 at 10:44 pm
How much bacon has been available during the past few very lean budgetary years?
Also, “bringing home the bacon” is something that Democrats (and Republicans, Independents, etc) should be fighting AGAINST. With everyone fighting to bring bacon home and viewing the budget as the “commons”, is it any wonder that the federal deficit continues to increase? Obviously the Rs tax cuts and war on IRAQ are big budget busters, but bacon acquisitions and the earmarks for lobbyist also add to the deficit.
January 23rd, 2006 at 10:19 am
I guess I should rephrase my question.
What has Gabby done for me as a LD28 resident in her time in the Senate? How has she represented me? I would hope more then just voting for the Gov’s budget and “protecting me from East Valley wackos”.
January 23rd, 2006 at 11:53 am
Anon -
If you don’t think “protecting you from east valley wackos” is such a big deal, you probably don’t realize how much power they have and what they are trying to do.
January 23rd, 2006 at 2:33 pm
Glad to see another one that is seeing the King (maybe queen) is naked.
I, too have been asking what Gabby has done for me. All I get is the same old song and dance from the loyalist.
I want a fighter, not a conformist. Gabby has no spine and this is what’s wrong with the part, backing the money candidate and not the people who can really change to system.
January 23rd, 2006 at 5:25 pm
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January 25th, 2006 at 9:26 am
As a Candidate for Congressional District 8 and my family goes back to Arizona’s Territorial days; name recognition V the fact it is about US not about ME and being able to work to get things done. I bet no one would associate me with Bring’s Funeral Homes Inc. or Brown and Page Mortuary in
Douglas; Founding Tucson Federal Savings ; owning Olivers Cleaners;or owning the first AAA baseball team in Tucson in the 1950’s “The Tucson Cowboys” that played at Hi Corbet Field, a name that appears in the paper every day caring for a families loved one?
Raul Castro used to write me with the letters addressed to Dwight Bringleister, so even he was confused!
Our phone number was 14 and we owned the first automobile in tucson,supplied all the pork to the City of Tucson from our Ranch that was located where the Tucson Auto Mall is today!
I know all the ways to get things done for you,and can hit the ground running!
I am amazed at all the Political want to bees that all of a sudden are the only people on earth who can walk and chew gum at the same time!
Dwight D. Leister:Chair
http://www.committee-to-elect.org
T.Mae Leister: First Vice Treasurer
http://www.dwightleister4congress2006.com