Wednesday, November 9th, 2005...3:52 pm
Mrs. Landingham, Give Me Numbers
I was going to be totally anal retentive and try to give you a precinct by precinct breakdown of the race. Since this is available elsewhere, I won’t bore you with that.
I found some telling statistics. I never saw the final tally for early ballots, but the Democrats had a lead of about 3500 acording to the last numbers I saw. The initial numbers, which all came from those early ballots, looked like this:
Uhlich (D) 15196
Dunbar (R) 10852
Trasoff (D) 16547
Ronstadt (R) 9671
Obviously, Dunbar had almost no crossover, at least in the early ballots. Ronstadt, on the other hand, not only had no crossover, but it looks like he lost the votes of even the Republicans.
A Republican needs to win the East side big to overcome the Democratic advantage in the lower turnout South and West sides. Here was the race on the East side in 2003:
WARD 2 VOTES
Volgy (D) 35%
Walkup (R) 63%
Swanson (L) 2%
Ibarra (D) 40%
Rios (R) 60%
Scott (D) 51%
Jenkins (R) 49%
WARD 4 VOTES
Volgy (D) 36%
Walkup (R) 61%
Swanson (L) 3%
Ibarra (D) 41%
Rios (R) 59%
Scott (D) 53%
Jenkins (R) 47%
Walkup and Rios were the two candidates in 2003 that were competitive (Walkup won narrowly, Rios lost), and you see what sort of East side numbers they had to pile on. Jenkins failed to carry either ward, but came close. He was defeated handily city wide.
Last night turned out like this:
WARD 2 VOTES
Uhlich (D) 49%
Dunbar (R) 51%
Trasoff (D) 54%
Ronstadt (R) 46%
WARD 4 VOTES
Uhlich (D) 49%
Dunbar (R) 51%
Trasoff (D) 54%
Ronstadt (R) 46%
As you see, Ronstadt failed to win even the east side. This means there were significant numbers of Republicans that didn’t support him. Dunbar won the east side, but didn’t post the numbers that would have stemmed the tidal wave from other parts of town. I guess her strategy of avoiding appearances in any other part of town wasn’t so smart after all.
Ronstadt and Dunbar won the east side in 2001 so handily that they could blow off the West and South sides when they became councilmembers. Uhlich and Trasoff, on the other hand, know that they have to count on East side votes as well. Hopefully, this means they will serve the city with a broader approach than the two people they are replacing.
Couldn’t be too hard to do.
2 Comments
November 10th, 2005 at 9:07 am
Uhlich won by twice as large a margin on election day (2-1) as she did on early ballots because of Dunbar’s fully exposed insanity.
As for the pay raise proposition it lost by less than 1% - does that qualify for an automtaic recount?
November 10th, 2005 at 10:36 am
Prop. 100 is still not finalized. It is losing by less than 1,000 votes with some 4,000 votes to be counted (provisionals, VBMS turned in on EDay, etc).