Thursday, September 29th, 2005...6:50 am
Poll Shows Democrats Ahead
Apparently there is a poll circulating that shows Nina Trasoff ahead of Fred Ronstadt, and Karen Uhlich slightly ahead of Kathleen Dunbar. I haven’t seen the poll, so its hard to really draw an awful lot from it.
The thing that it confirms to me is what I’ve been saying all along: Uhlich was going to have a slightly harder time of it than Trasoff. This runs counter to what many people were thinking. There is some sort of mythology that Fred Ronstadt is somehow resoundingly popular because of his name. Well, yes, he’s well known, but that doesn’t necessarily mean well liked.
I don’t know where this started. Yes, Ronstadt is from a family that has been prominent in Tucson since before the Civil War. That helped him get elected narrowly. That sort of thing works until you actually have to run on a record.
This is where Ronstadt falls apart. He doesn’t like to explain himself. There is even a story of him blowing up at citizens at a neighborhood association meeting. He isn’t what anyone would call a people person. This sort of lack of personal connection is what can mess you up in a local race. What also hasn’t helped is that he’s run an anemic campaign.
It’s helpful to point out that the Democrats nominated a smart but weak candidate in 2001, and she came close to beating Ronstadt.
Karin Uhlich is running against Kathleen Dunbar, who is far more personable than Ronstadt. She can walk into a room and charm just about anyone. Of course, when you actually know what is up, you know it’s total BS, but she puts on a nice show. People, unfortunately, like this. She has a much better constituency service operation than Ronstadt does (Ronstadt seems to think his constituents are only the folks that own chain stores). This sort of thing matters in an election. The fact that the poll shows Uhlich with a slight lead against Dunbar is a great sign for both her and Trasoff.
I hope the local party shows this poll to some of the contributors. Unfortunately, the big contributors for the party are neighbors of some of the people who donate to Ronstadt and Dunbar. This leads them to think that somehow the two Republicans are inassailable. Hopefully, they will see what is actually going on on the ground and help out.
2 Comments
September 29th, 2005 at 7:10 am
Nerd alert…
Actually, the Ronstadt family moved to Tucson after the Civil War, though Colonel Federico Ronstadt did spend a lot of time here drumming up support for the cause during the War of Reform (1857-1861) and the War of the French Intervention (1862-1867).
Just thought you would like to know.
September 29th, 2005 at 9:56 pm
Tom, that’s scary…and slightly arousing..no, no, just plain scary.
Leave a Reply