Rum, Romanism and Rebellion

I get a regular e-mail bulletin from Charlie Cook. Unfortunately, I can’t remember how it was I managed to subscribe to it, and the posting on his website requires a password.

His latest one, which I recieved yesterday, is a rundown on his thoughts on the special election in Ohio, where Democrat Paul Hackett did surprisingly well. Heck, he almost won.

He says that a variety of factors may have helped Hackett, including a series of ongoing scandals that have tarred most of the Republicans in Ohio, and the weakness of the Republican nominee, Jean Schmidt, but…

…while all of these factors contributed greatly to the surprisingly close outcome, it is clear that there is deeper significance to this race than some Republicans admit. There are those close to the White House who remain dismissive of the election’s overall significance, but to ignore the warning signals this race has given off is to tempt the gods. Just as odd-year gubernatorial races often (though not always) foreshadow subsequent national results, special elections can be a harbinger for what the upcoming national election will hold.

Republicans nationwide might take note that a message of “don’t send someone to Congress who will be a rubber stamp for President Bush” resonated surprisingly well in a very GOP district.

He also warns Democrats not to read too much into the results though.

But, there is a significant point here. Hackett was a far better nominee than we usually recruit in a district such as that one. What this means though, is that we should be working to find strong challengers so that when there is an opening we can exploit it.

I’ll cite two examples from here in Arizona.

In 2000, House Speaker Jeff Groscost was looking to move up to the State Senate. It should have been an easy run, since the Mesa district he was running in was the most Republican in the state. A Democrat, Jay Blanchard, who was a former Marine and a college professor, filed to run against him. No one would have even given this guy a second look until the alt-fuel scandal hit.

For those who don’t remember, Groscost pushed through a bill that purportedly gave the purchasers of alternative fuel vehicles a tax break. Turned out that the break was poorly structured, and could have cost the state, by one estimate, half a billion dollars. The law was recinded, but not before it was found out that Groscost helped many of his associates profit from the law.

All of this broke shortly before the election, and Blanchard was elected in what is considered to be the biggest upset in Arizona since Barry Goldwater beat US Senate Majority Leader Ernest McFarland.

Although it is easy to say that Groscost was nearly unelectable in that year, it is helpful to remember that it was still a close race. The quality of the Democratic nominee made it possible to win.

The contrapositive to that would be Jim Kolbe’s 1996 race. In that year, you may remember, Kolbe was outed by The Advocate after years of denying that he was gay. People were a bit squeamish about his lying about his lifestyle for all of that time and he had never been particularly supportive of gay issues, so it may have been possible for a quality Democratic nominee to (while treading carefully) use this to his or her advantage. Instead, that year, we had a retiree named Mort Nelson (who has since passed away.) Nelson was a great guy and very knowledgeable about the issues, but was never regarded as a serious candidate. Kolbe won reelection, although former Tucson Mayor Tom Volgy gave him a serious run in 1998. One wonders what would have happened if Volgy (or someone of his caliber) were the candidate in 1996.

In our eight congressional districts, there are probably openings. Rep. J. D. Hayworth has already had to squelch a rumor that he is retiring. Jim Kolbe looks like he is going to have a heck of a primary, if he surives it, or if State Rep. Randy Graf wins, a strong Democrat could win. We already have a great nominee against Rep. Rick Renzi in State Rep. Jack Jackson Jr. Could be not a great year, but a good one.